The 2019–2020 northwestern Syria offensive, codenamed "Dawn of Idlib 2," was a military operation launched by the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and other allied militias against Syrian opposition and allied fighters of the Syrian National Army, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Rouse the Believers Operations Room, the Turkistan Islamic Party, and other rebels during the Syrian civil war. The offensive began on 19 December 2019 and saw Russian-backed pro-Syrian government forces clash with Turkish-backed opposition groups along with leaving 980,000 civilians displaced.
By February 2020, pro-government forces had encircled several Turkish observation posts that had been established throughout Idlib governorate. On 27 February, after intermittent deadly clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces, Turkey formally intervened in the offensive and announced the beginning of Operation Spring Shield with the aim of pushing Syrian government forces back to pre-offensive frontlines.
On 5 March 2020, a meeting took place between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian president Vladimir Putin in which they agreed on a ceasefire beginning on 6 March that established a six-kilometer secure corridor along the M4 Highway. The ceasefire also called for joint Turkish–Russian patrols along the highway beginning on 15 March.
Background
Following Syrian government victories in 2018 during the siege of Eastern Ghouta, the Southern Damascus offensive, and the completion of rebel evacuations from eastern Qalamoun—which partially concluded the government's Rif Dimashq Governorate campaign—parts of northwestern Syria in the Idlib and Aleppo Governorates became the only significant opposition-controlled territory. Fighters of the Syrian National Army loyal to the Syrian Interim Government (concentrated in Aleppo) and some 20,000 fighters aligned with the internationally proscribed terrorist organization Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and loyal to the Syrian Salvation Government (concentrated in Idlib) held out against Bashar al-Assad's government and its allies, with a civilian population of three million living in the area.
According to a Reuters analysis, the January 2019 takeover of Idlib by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham ended any realistic prospect of fulfilling the requirements of the 2018 Turko-Russian Agreement, which called for the disarming of the jihadist faction and reopening of the strategic M4 and M5 highways. The offensive that began in December 2019 was aimed at reopening the highways to civilian traffic, as well as the final elimination of rebel control over the territory.
Prelude
On 20 November 2019, Qah was struck by a ground-to-ground missile from the Syrian government with Russian and Iranian support. It killed at least 16 people. The United States strongly condemned the attack.
On 24 November 2019, pro-Syrian government forces, supported by Russian airstrikes, entered the villages of Umm Elkhalayel, Zarzur, al-Sayeer and Msheirfeh, causing dozens of casualties on both sides. The next day, a second advance was attempted by government forces targeting the village of al-Farjah, which Syrian state media reported as being under the control of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
On 26 November, opposition media reported that the rebel Al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room repelled another attempted government advance on the Sahel village in Idlib's southeastern countryside.
On 28 November, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham announced repelling a joint Iranian militia-Syrian advance on Kabani in northeastern Latakia Governorate, with pro-government forces withdrawing after hours of clashes. Russian warplanes were also reportedly seen during the assault, according to opposition sources.
On 30 November, HTS and other rebel groups reportedly captured several villages near the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase, according to pro-government sources.
On 1 December, according to government sources, HTS, the Turkish-backed National Front for Liberation (NFL), Ajnad al-Kavkaz, and Ansar al-Tawhid attacked government-controlled villages, with fierce clashes occurring in the towns of Establat and Rassem Wared in which two tanks and five transport vehicles were reportedly destroyed; during the rebel advance, the Syrian military said it destroyed two SVBIEDs (suicide car bombs) near the town of Kafriya. The joint rebel offensive was ultimately repelled.
On 4 December, clashes occurred as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) seized a military base east of Umm al-Tinah village.
On 9 December, pro-government sources reported that the military bombarded rebel-held areas in the southern Idlib countryside, as well as portions of the western Aleppo countryside and parts of Aleppo city's outskirts.
The offensive
Pro-government airstrikes in the region began to intensify on 15 December 2019. Meanwhile, on 17 December, Russian intelligence reported that 300 fighters from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) arrived in Idlib from Afrin in preparation for renewed fighting.
Following the air bombing campaign and after the 14th round of negotiations in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan ended a few days prior without any definitive ceasefire agreement, ground fighting resumed on 18 December, reportedly due to the opposition's refusal to accept new Russian terms regarding control of Idlib. As many as 200 Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and Guardians of Religion Organization fighters jointly attacked Syrian government forces in the Umm al Khalakhil and Zarzur fronts. The Syrian military said they had repelled all attacks and that 12 pro-government fighters were injured and hospitalized.
Opening advances
On 19 December, pro-government media reported that the Syrian government had initiated the "second phase" of Operation Dawn of Idlib, the prior government offensive in summer 2019, with pro-government forces led by the 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly known as the Tiger Forces) attacking several villages in southeastern Idlib Governorate, particularly along the Umm Jalal axis. A Syrian military source said the objective of the operation was to capture territory south of Ma'arrat al-Nu'man, a key rebel stronghold on the M5 highway. There were Russian airstrikes on Tal Mardikh in the eastern Idlib countryside and the village of Marshamarin in southern Idlib, and government helicopter barrel bomb attacks on Jarjnaz and al-Ghadfah, as well as bombing of Ma'arrat al-Nu'man. 80 people were reported killed on both sides on 20–21 December, including in heavy air strikes on Ma'arrat al-Nu'man and Saraqib. Russia reported that 17 Syrian soldiers were killed.
On 21 December, according to pro-government sources, several pro-government fighters were killed in an ambush by the National Front for Liberation (NFL) in Latakia, with several light weapons also captured. Meanwhile, HTS claimed a suicide attack in the village of al-Furqa, southeast of Idlib, which reportedly killed 30 Syrian troops.
By 22 December, government forces spearheaded by the 5th Corps and the 25th Special Mission Forces Division had made notable advances in the southeastern Idlib countryside, battling rebel units in the area and reportedly capturing over 15 towns and villages within a 48-hour period. According to front line reports, the SAA death toll had risen to 40, with over 50 wounded. An SAA source said the rebels had suffered 70–80 dead. During its advance, the Syrian army began encircling the Turkish observation point near Sarman. Government sources reported the death of Colonel Basil Ali Khaddour, the commander of the sixth regiment of the 25th Special Mission Forces Division, while opposition media reported several of the Division's members killed.
On 23 December, the Syrian army advanced further, completely surrounding the Turkish observation point near Sarman and capturing Jarjnaz, considered the largest town in the eastern countryside of Ma'arrat al-Nu'man.
On 24 December, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other opposition elements launched a morning counterattack to retake Jarjnaz, recapturing the villages of Tell Mannas, al-Barsah, Farwan, and al-Ghadfah in the process, according to SOHR; an SVBIED was deployed and attacked pro-government forces in Jarjnaz. By 24 December, 30,000 people had fled from the areas around Ma'arrat al-Nu'man while airstrikes on the M5 highway reportedly targeted civilians fleeing north from the front lines. Pro-government media reported that HTS withdrew from its defensive positions in and around Ma'arat Al-Nu'man as well as other defensive positions in the southern Idlib countryside, handing control over to Ansar al-Tawhid, part of the Rouse the Believers Operations Room. The Deputy Defense Minister of the Syrian Interim Government said that HTS had blocked reinforcements sent by the SNA from areas in northern Aleppo such as Afrin and further alleged that the only SNA factions allowed into Idlib by HTS were the Levant Front, Ahrar al-Sharqiya and the Lions of the East Army. HTS denied the claims.
On 25 December, the Russian Air Force reportedly bombed a military convoy of Ahrar al-Sham moving near the town of Kafr Nabl in southern Idlib, killing an unknown number of its field commanders and fighters.
On 26 December, ground advancements largely halted and both sides began shelling each other's positions around Ma'arrat Al-Nu'man, with casualties reported on both sides. Pro-government forces began shelling the rebel-held towns of Bernan, Farwan, Barissa, and Halban. Both government and opposition factions later reported that they paused their field operations in the Idlib region due to poor weather conditions. According to a Syrian army source, the air force was temporarily grounded because of limited visibility. The NFL reportedly planned to launch a counterattack, but it was also called off due to poor weather conditions. Instead, they brought reinforcements to their positions.
By the end of the month, hundreds of SNA fighters (two brigades) were transferred to Idlib as a result of an agreement with HTS, which had previously blocked the entry of SNA combatants.
The Syrian Army offensive was condemned by world leaders, including United States president Donald Trump, who tweeted that "Russia, Syria, and Iran are killing, or on their way to killing, thousands of innocent civilians in Idlib province." By this stage, United Nations agencies were reporting that "mass evacuations" of pro-opposition families from front line areas "have left behind a landscape of ghost towns".
Russia–Turkey ceasefire
According to a Russian major-general, a ceasefire was agreed with Turkey, which supported many of the rebel factions in the area, between late December 2019 and early January 2020; the ceasefire was introduced in the Idlib de-escalation zone on 9 January 2020. Turkey had sent a delegation to Moscow to establish a new ceasefire in the region. Turkey's defense ministry announced that the ceasefire would take effect on 12 January and said that Syrian and Russian land and air attacks would halt at one minute past midnight. The ceasefire was set to stem the flow of refugees from Idlib and allow the delivery of humanitarian aid to the region.
On 11 January 2020, a day before the brokered ceasefire went into effect, Ansar al-Tawhid released a video of a mechanized attack against government positions in southeastern Idlib using heavy machine guns previously captured from the Syrian army. The group also reportedly ambushed a vehicle carrying government officers and successfully captured a position from government forces, seizing some small arms in the process.
Post–ceasefire advances
Late on 15 January, post-ceasefire, the Syrian Arab Army and its allies resumed offensive actions in southern Idlib in response to a prior series of apparent ceasefire violations by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other militant groups. The Syrian Army captured the villages of Barsah and Nouhiya, located west of the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase.
On 16 January, the Syrian army captured three towns in southeast Idlib after troops stormed the towns of Talkhatra, Abu Jurayf and Khirbat Dawud in the morning. The three towns were secured following several hours of clashes that killed 22 militants, including 16 jihadists, according to SOHR. HTS and its allies claimed to recapture Abu Jurayf in a counterattack that killed more than ten Syrian troops, due to the SAA failing to secure the town after initially storming it. On 17 January, the rebels captured Tal Musaytif from government forces, according to SOHR.