The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census.
Pennsylvania held the largest electoral prize of all major swing states in 2024, with 19 electoral votes. As such, it was generally forecasted that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency. Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election. Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state in the election, providing Trump the 270th electoral vote. Pennsylvania voted 0.23% more Republican than the nation, while Michigan voted the closest to the nation, voting 0.06% more Democratic than the nation at-large.
Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.71% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won over 50% of the vote.
Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, two US House swing districts, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General. Except for the Senate race, all 2024 Pennsylvania Republican statewide candidates won over 50% of the vote, while Pennsylvania was the only state where the Republicans flipped more than one US House seat. Trump received more than 3.5 million votes, the most cast for any candidate in Pennsylvania history.
General election
Voting law changes
In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.
Trump assassination attempt
On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer, Corey D. Comperatore of Sarver, PA, died and two others were critically injured.
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bucks (largest city: Bensalem)
- Erie (largest city: Erie)
- Monroe (largest city: East Stroudsburg)
- Northampton (largest city: Bethlehem)
By congressional district
Trump won nine of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Harris, including one that elected a Republican.
Analysis
A Northeastern swing state within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania was seen as a pure toss-up this cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1.2% as the latter defeated the former nationwide.
Compared to 2020, Trump gained in nearly every county except for a few scattered around the interior of the state. His strongest gains were concentrated in Northeastern Pennsylvania, which, prior to his first run in 2016, was Democratic and historically had an economy focused around coal mining. He also made notable gains in the Philadelphia area, even in the suburban counties that had shifted against him in both of his past runs.
Trump placed first in 58 counties, four more than he did in 2020. He won Erie and Northampton counties, which voted for him in 2016 and Biden in 2020. He was the first Republican to win Bucks since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and to win Monroe since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's victory in the state made him the first Republican candidate to carry Pennsylvania twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984.