The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 5, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors for Donald Trump and JD Vance to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.
Due to the state's nearly even partisan lean and the close margins by which it was decided in 2016 and 2020, it was considered to be one of the seven crucial swing states in 2024, though many viewed it as the most difficult of the seven for Trump to regain, even harder than Nevada, the only one of seven Trump never won in 2016 and 2020. However, contrary to polling data, Trump flipped Michigan back into the Republican column, defeating Kamala Harris by 1.42%. This made the state 0.06% more Democratic than the nation at-large and therefore the closest to the national results. Michigan shares with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the longest active streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the last five presidential elections. Altogether, the three states have voted for the same candidate in nine consecutive elections, dating to 1992.
This was the first election since 2012 where Michigan voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole. It was also the first election since 1988 that Michigan voted more Republican than neighboring Wisconsin.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
One key issue for the Democratic nominee was retaining the support of Arab-American voters, with polls indicating that they could be alienated by the Democrats due to their pro-Israel policy.
The Michigan Democratic primary was held on February 27, 2024, as one of the earliest races of the larger Democratic primaries. Incumbent president Joe Biden won in a landslide, although he would lose two delegates and over 100,000 votes to the uncommitted option, which was fueled by pro-Palestine protest votes opposing Biden's campaign due to his handling of the Gaza war.
Republican primary
Following a schism in the state Republican Party, Michigan held two Republican nominating contests. The primary was held on February 27, 2024, and awarded a small amount of delegates to former president Donald Trump, who won in a landslide, and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The party later held a caucus on March 2, in which Trump won the remainder of delegates.
General election
Candidates
The following candidates had qualified for the general election ballot:
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Randall Terry — US Taxpayers
- Jill Stein — Green
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Natural Law
- Joseph Kishore — Independent (Socialist Equality Party nominee)
- Cornel West — Independent
On April 18, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by Michigan's Natural Law Party. Despite suspending his campaign on August 23 and legal attempts to withdraw himself, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that his name would remain on the ballot. Jill Stein from the Green Party also appeared on the ballot.
Additionally, voters had the option to write-in candidates who file a letter of intent by October 25.
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Results
Trump secured Michigan with 49.7% of the vote, winning 74 counties out of 83, including Macomb County, the third-most populous in the state. Conversely, Harris won seven out of Michigan's 10 most populous counties, including Wayne County, the state's largest.
By county
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Muskegon (largest municipality: Muskegon)
- Saginaw (largest municipality: Saginaw)
By congressional district
Trump won eight of 13 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
Analysis
This was the first time since 1988 in which Michigan voted more Republican than neighboring Wisconsin, and the first election since 1992 in which Michigan was not the most Democratic-leaning of the three Rust Belt swing states (including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). Michigan shifted rightward by about 4.2 points from 2020, the strongest such shift in the three Rust Belt swing states.
Following the 2024 election, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hold the longest active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the last five presidential elections. In addition, the three states have voted for the same candidate in nine consecutive presidential elections. Trump's victory in the state made him the first Republican candidate to carry Michigan twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984.
Trump became the first Republican candidate to win Michigan without carrying Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, since Charles Evans Hughes in 1916 and the first Republican to ever win the White House without it; Kent County had long been key to Republican victories in Michigan in past elections. Kent County and neighboring Ottawa County (which swung leftward) are plurality-Dutch ancestry.
Notably, Trump became the first Republican to win a plurality of the vote in Dearborn, home to a large Arab-American community, since 2000. This was part of Harris underperforming nationwide among voters of color (i.e. Hispanic voters, Asian voters, and Native American voters). Harris's loss in Dearborn has also been attributable to Biden's handling of the Gaza war.
Trump became the first Republican candidate to win Muskegon County and the Lower Peninsula since George H. W. Bush in 1988. He also became the first Republican candidate to win Michigan or the White House without carrying Leelanau County.
Though Harris carried Wayne County, her share of the vote was significantly poorer than Biden's had been in 2020, as it swung toward Trump by 9.2%. She similarly ceded ground across the state as a whole, earning a smaller percentage of the vote than Biden did in 2020 in all but seven counties, mostly concentrated in the northwestern areas of the Lower Peninsula. In addition to Wayne County, Trump also achieved significant swings in his favor in Cass, Genesee, and Lake counties, all of which have somewhat notable Black populations, as well as in Isabella and Macomb counties. Despite Trump winning the state, Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly won the 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan by 0.33%, in part due to some Trump voters not voting down-ballot. (Slotkin received about 25,000 fewer votes than Harris, while Republican Mike Rogers received about 120,000 fewer votes than Trump.)
Trump's best result came from rural inland Missaukee County, a county with large Dutch ancestry, while Harris recorded her strongest performance in Washtenaw County, home to the University of Michigan. Green Party candidate Stein did the best in Wayne County with 2.4% of the vote, likely owing to communities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck. This is the first time since 2008 that the Upper and Lower Peninsula voted the same way, the first time since 1988 that the latter voted Republican, and the first time since 1984 that both of them voted Republican.
Exit poll data
CNN conducted an exit poll in Michigan for both the presidential race and concurrent U.S. Senate race. They surveyed 2,855 voters across the state.