The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
Trump once again won Montana, this time by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state. Trump notably flipped Big Horn County (home of the Little Bighorn River and the famous battle that took place nearby it) which hadn't voted for the Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan won the county in 1980. He also flipped Blaine County, a county that has voted for the winning candidate in every U.S. presidential election since 1992.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Republican primary
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Green primary
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.
General election
Candidates
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:
- Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
- Donald Trump, Republican Party
- Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
- Jill Stein, Green Party
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Big Horn (largest city: Hardin)
- Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
By congressional district
Trump won both congressional districts.
Analysis
Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana – a sparsely populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains – has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.
However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.
Trump gained nearly everywhere in the state but especially in counties with high Native American populations, such as Big Horn County, Glacier County, and Blaine County; he was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Big Horn since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.6% margin of victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.