A presidential election was held in Portugal on 24 January 2016. The election chose the successor of President Aníbal Cavaco Silva, who was constitutionally not allowed to run for a third consecutive term.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the candidate supported by Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and People's Monarchist Party (PPM), won the election on the first round with 52% of the vote. Marcelo also won in every single district in the country and only lost a few municipalities in the south of the country. The Socialist Party (PS), for the first time in a Presidential election, did not officially support a candidate, with party members dividing their support for either António Sampaio da Nóvoa or Maria de Belém, which polled 23% and 4%, respectively. The Left Bloc's candidate, Marisa Matias, polled a strong third place, with 10% of the votes, while the communist candidate, Edgar Silva, achieved a very poor result, less than 4% of the votes. One of the big surprises in the election was the result of eccentric candidate Vitorino Silva, polling at 3.3% of the votes, just 30,000 votes behind the communist candidate.
For this election, about 9.7 million voters were registered to cast a ballot by election day. Turnout was higher than that of the 2011 election, but reached a record low in a presidential election with a non incumbent, as only 48.66% of the electorate cast a ballot. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was sworn in as President on 9 March 2016.
Background
After being re-elected with 53% of the votes in January 2011, Aníbal Cavaco Silva had served two consecutive five-year terms as president, the maximum number, and the 2016 election was to choose a successor for a term beginning on 9 March. In Portugal, the president is the head of state, has mostly ceremonial powers. However, the president does have some political influence and can dissolve Parliament if a crisis occurs. The president also has an official residence in the Belém Palace in Lisbon. Cavaco Silva's second term was dominated by the IMF/Eurozone bailout to rescue the country's finances and economy. The complex economic situation forced the head of state to mediate talks between parties on several occasions, one of them in 2013, after a government crisis in which Cavaco proposed a "unity government" between the PSD and PS to resolve the crisis, a proposal that was rejected by the parties. The dire economic picture, Cavaco's alignment with the then PSD/CDS–PP government and some controversial positions and gaffes, led to a significant drop in his popularity ratings. For most of his second term, Cavaco Silva coexisted with PSD prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho, with the institutional relationship being a good one, but after the 2015 legislative election, which resulted in relative victory for Passos Coelho's coalition, but with a left-wing majority, the president had to cohabitate with Socialist prime minister António Costa for the last few months of his term. Cavaco Silva nominated Costa as prime minister after the left-wing majority rejected Passos Coelho's second minority government.
Pre-campaign
Just like in 2006 and 2011, the Socialist Party had no real strategy for the presidential election, while on the PSD, the almost certain candidacy of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa created doubts in the party's leadership, with party leader Pedro Passos Coelho expressing that the party's supported candidate could not be a "windmill", which was interpreted as a criticism towards Marcelo, despite a later denial from Passos Coelho. After a strong showing in the 2015 legislative election, the Left Bloc hoped to reinforce its position with the candidacy of Marisa Matias while the communists tried to recover from being overtaken by the Left Bloc, but presented a candidate from Madeira, Edgar Silva, with little national recognition.
Electoral system
In order to stand for election, candidates must be of Portuguese origin and over 35 years old, gather 7,500 signatures of support one month before the election, and submit them to the Constitutional Court of Portugal.
Under Portuguese law, a candidate must receive a majority of votes (50% plus one vote) to be elected. If no candidate achieved a majority in the first round, a runoff election (i.e., second round, held between the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round) would have been held on February 14.
Candidates
Official candidates
On 29 December 2015 the Constitutional Court certified a record ten candidates as having met the requirements to appear on the ballot. This remained the highest number of candidates in a Presidential ballot in Portuguese democracy until 2026.
Unsuccessful candidates
- Manuel João Vieira, singer, independent candidate.
- Manuel Almeida, independent.
- Paulo Freitas do Amaral, university professor, former president of the parish of Cruz Quebrada; withdrew and supported Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
- Orlando Cruz, withdrew in favour of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
- Graça Castanho, withdrew due to having lost her nomination signatures in a storm.
- Castanheira Barros, independent candidate, former member of the Social Democratic Party; withdrew and supported Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
- Manuela Gonzaga, historian and writer; was supported by the People–Animals–Nature.
Decided not to run
- Fernando Nobre – Independent candidate which had contested the previous presidential election.
- António Vitorino – former European Commissioner (1999–2004).
- António Capucho – former Mayor of Cascais (2001–2011).
- Paulo Portas – former leader of the CDS – People's Party (1998–2005, 2007–2016), former Minister of National Defence (2002–2005) and of Foreign Affairs (2011–2013) and also former Deputy Prime Minister (2013–2015).
- Manuela Ferreira Leite – former leader of the Social Democratic Party (2008–2010).
- António Guterres – former Prime Minister (1995–2002).
- Manuel Carvalho da Silva – former union leader of CGTP (1986–2012).
- Pedro Santana Lopes – former Prime Minister (2004–2005).
- Rui Rio – former mayor of Porto (2002–2013).
- Alberto João Jardim – former President of the Regional Government of Madeira (1978-2015).
Campaign period
Issues
During the campaign, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa acted mostly alone, with no PSD party machine behind him nor campaign posters or rallies. His high popularity and notoriety, after years as a political commentator on television, helped his campaign by presenting himself as a "moderate", someone "to the left of the right", and a break with Cavaco Silva's more distant image, replaced by a more spontaneous and affectionate one on Marcelo's part. Initially, the Socialist Party (PS) leadership was inclined to support António Sampaio da Nóvoa, despite internal divisions, however, the announcement of Maria de Belém's candidacy led the party to not support a single candidate, but with the then party leader António Costa appealing for votes for Sampaio da Nóvoa or Maria de Belém. Sampaio da Nóvoa, who also considered withdrawing from the race after the PS' defeat in the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, but later dropped the idea, labeled Marcelo as the "fast food" candidate, while other candidates, such as Paulo Morais and Henrique Neto, raised issues like corruption and the country's lack of strategy.
Candidates' debates
There were several number of debates between all the candidates in the three TV networks RTP, SIC, TVI. There was a radio debate between all candidates plus on January 19, there was a final debate between all of candidates on RTP1.
Completed televised debates:
Opinion polling
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.79/30/201512/6/20151/17/2016Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)Maria de BélemAntónio Sampaio da NóvoaHenrique NetoEdgar Silva (PCP)Marisa Matias (BE)Paulo de MoraisCândido FerreiraVitorino SilvaJorge SequeiraOthersOpinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese pres...
Voter turnout
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.