The 2016 Conservative Party leadership election was held due to Prime Minister David Cameron's resignation as party leader. He had resigned after losing the national referendum to leave the European Union. Cameron, who supported Britain's continued membership of the EU, announced his resignation on 24 June, saying that he would step down by October. Theresa May won the contest on 11 July 2016, after the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom left her as the sole candidate.
Conservative members of Parliament had voted initially in a series of ballots to determine which two candidates would go forward to a nationwide ballot of Conservative Party members for the final decision. Five Conservative MPs put themselves forward as candidates: Justice Secretary Michael Gove, Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb, former Defence Secretary Liam Fox, Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change Andrea Leadsom, and Home Secretary Theresa May. Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, seen as the front runner by political analysts, chose not to run after Gove withdrew his backing and announced his own candidacy.
In the first-round ballot, May, gaining the support of half of Conservative MPs, was placed first with Leadsom in second place. Fox was eliminated on the first ballot; Crabb withdrew later that day. Gove was eliminated in the second round of voting. Before the Conservative Party members were due to cast their votes, Leadsom withdrew from the contest on 11 July. May was appointed party leader later that day, and prime minister on 13 July. She appointed Boris Johnson, Fox and Leadsom to her Cabinet, respectively as Foreign Secretary, international trade secretary, and environment secretary.
If not for Leadsom's withdrawal, Conservative Party members would have directly elected a new prime minister for the first time; this is what happened in the next Conservative leadership election in 2019.
Background
During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, then leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister, announced that he would not seek a third term; he was therefore expected to stand down before the following general election – at that time, expected to occur in 2020 – although he spoke of serving a full term.
Following a manifesto commitment, Cameron and the Conservative Party introduced legislation for a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, which was held on 23 June 2016. Cameron and the Government supported a Remain vote, although the Conservative Party was officially neutral in the campaign and many Conservative politicians, including some Cabinet members, campaigned to Leave. There was speculation during the campaign as to whether Cameron would resign if Leave won, but on the day of the referendum, both Leave- and Remain-supporting Conservatives called for him to stay whatever the result.
A Leave win was announced on the morning of 24 June 2016, and Cameron announced shortly afterward that he would be stepping down. He said that he would continue in post while the leadership election was ongoing, with the new leader to be in place in time for the party conference in October. However, the way in which events unfolded resulted in his much earlier departure.
The campaign was framed by whether candidates had supported Remain or Leave; initial speculation by some analysts was that a Leave supporter would be more likely to win. Based on media speculation, the front runners on 29 June were Boris Johnson (Leave) and Theresa May (Remain), with Johnson the early favorite. Johnson's candidacy was expected to be supported by Michael Gove, the two having worked together for Leave through the referendum campaign, as well as by Andrea Leadsom. However, earlier that week, May was leading by a narrow margin in opinion polls commissioned by The Times and by The Independent.
Gove, previously seen as a key ally of the Johnson campaign, announced his own candidacy three hours before nominations closed, stating that he had reluctantly come to the conclusion that Johnson could not "provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead". Johnson subsequently withdrew from the leadership race. The Telegraph stated that Gove's actions in undermining Johnson's leadership aspirations constituted "the most spectacular political assassination in a generation". Gove's move was compared to the betrayals of fiction with, for example, Johnson's father, Stanley Johnson, quoting "Et tu, Brute?". Some of Johnson's allies subsequently began shifting their support to May, because they perceived a "systematic and calculated plot" by Gove to remove their candidate from the race.
By 5 July 2016, Gove was in a distant third place in the leadership race based on the number of endorsements received from other MPs. He was eliminated in the second MPs' ballot.
A post-contest analysis in The Daily Telegraph noted that the £275,000 contributions to Theresa May's campaign "dwarfed her rivals", and Cameron's original honours list contained the names of two major Conservative party donors who supported her campaign.
Campaign and key issues
The initial days of the campaign remained overshadowed by the fallout from Gove's entry into the race and Johnson's departure. May gathered the most support from MPs early on. Gavin Williamson – later to be appointed Chief Whip by May – was her parliamentary campaign manager and responsible for rallying this support, together with a small group of MPs including Julian Smith, Kris Hopkins, Simon Kirby, Karen Bradley and George Hollingbery. In the initial days of the campaign, Leadsom said that she would not rule out involving Nigel Farage, then the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), in Brexit negotiations; the May campaign criticised Leadsom for claimed UKIP links. Leadsom had approached the Johnson campaign with a proposed deal not to run in exchange for being made one of his top three ministers. Johnson agreed to the deal, but was too late in communicating the decision, and Leadsom chose to run for leader.
All five candidates for the Conservative leadership said that they would not call an early general election, relying instead on the Conservative mandate secured at the 2015 election. The five candidates also rejected the idea of calling a second referendum on British withdrawal from the EU, pledging to take the UK out of the Union, although on different timeframes.
Among the key issues that emerged during the Conservative leadership campaign were:
- The status of EU citizens living in the UK. The government stated following the EU referendum that the long-term status of EU nationals living in the UK and UK nationals living elsewhere in the EU would be a question for the next government, with the current government saying only that there would be "no immediate change" to EU nationals' status. May suggested that the status of EU citizens living in the UK could be part of exit negotiations; the other four Conservative leadership candidates opposed this notion, saying that EU nationals living in the UK should not be "negotiating chips" and pledging to allow EU nationals to remain in the country if chosen as prime minister.
- When to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, formally beginning the process of withdrawal from the European Union by the UK. May and Gove both stated that they would not invoke Article 50 before 2017. Leadsom called for a quick invocation of Article 50 and short negotiations, although she did not put forward a specific timeframe. Fox put forward a specific date, saying: "I would like to see us leaving the EU on January 1, 2019. That means we will have to activate the Article 50 process by the end of this year."
- What level of access to the European single market Britain should seek, and the future of migration policy and the free movement of EU nationals in the UK. Fox, the most right-wing of the five candidates, said that he only supported membership in the single market if the UK was allowed to completely opt-out of the free movement of people, which is viewed as extremely unlikely. Gove and Leadsom took a tough line of free movement, with Gove pledging to "end free movement [and] introduce an Australian-style points-based system for immigration" and Leadsom pledging that free movement "will end" without mentioning the single market. Crabb took what The Week described as "the most pro-single market stance" of the candidates, saying it was "vital" for the UK to have "as close an economic relationship with the EU as we have now" while also speaking of "controlling" immigration, signalling some willingness to compromise with the EU. May stated that it was her "priority to allow British companies to trade with the single market in goods and services" but said that she would not accept a deal "that involves accepting the free movement of people as it has worked hitherto"—also signalling willingness to some future compromise deal with the EU. Fox also pledged to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, while Leadsom, Crabb and Gove did not specifically pledged to do so; May has said: "I think net migration in the tens of thousands is sustainable, but it is going to take time."
- Whether to approve the construction of a third runway at Heathrow Airport, a decision which was delayed to at least October 2016 in the wake of the Brexit referendum vote and the Conservative leadership campaign. Boris Johnson, who opted not to run, was a staunch opponent of the proposal; May and Gove, whose constituencies are near Heathrow, have dealt with noise complaints in the past but did not publicly take a stand on a third runway during the leadership campaign. Crabb, by contrast, said during the campaign that he was "a strong supporter of a third runway" at the airport to boost the economy.
An editorial in The Guardian noted that the Brexit-dominated leadership campaign presented a danger that the next prime minister would be chosen on this basis at a time when several major domestic issues would also demand the prime minister's attention, such as the disputes between the government and unions representing teachers and junior doctors.
An interview with Leadsom in The Times in early July created some controversy. The article quoted Leadsom as saying that motherhood gave her a better political perspective than May — who is childless — although Leadsom protested the article misrepresented her views. She later apologised to May. There was also controversy about claimed inaccuracies in Leadsom's CV. Meanwhile, Crabb, after his candidacy had ended, was reported to have been sexting a woman despite being married and stressing family values in his campaign.
Leadsom withdrew from the contest on 11 July, arguing that May should become leader promptly.
Election procedure
The election process for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party is overseen by the Conservative 1922 Committee, although election procedures are approved by the Board of the Conservative Party. Nominations for the leadership are invited by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (Graham Brady at the time), acting as Returning Officer for all stages of the election. Candidates must be proposed and seconded in writing, with names of the proposers and seconders being published. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is declared elected. If only two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the general membership of the Party. If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary Party on the Tuesday immediately following the closing date for nominations. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the general membership of the Party.
A ballot paper is produced and issued to all Conservative Members in the House of Commons, who indicate one choice from the candidates listed. Proxy votes are possible. The ballot is conducted in secret. If there are three candidates in the first ballot, the two who receive the most votes go forward to the general membership. If there are more than three, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and a second ballot, under the same rules, is held the following Thursday. If there are no more than three candidates in the second ballot, the two receiving the most votes go forward to the general membership. If a third ballot is required, it is held the following Tuesday. This process is repeated as often as necessary, on alternate Tuesdays and Thursdays. When a ballot with only three candidates is reached, the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes go forward to the general membership. Candidates may withdraw their names at any time, "up to 24 hours of the opening of the ballot", but no new nominations will be accepted after the first ballot.