The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024. Donald Trump won by 5.5 percent.
The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump. Formerly a moderately red state, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a reduced margin of Republican victory compared to previous cycles, despite a more favorable presidential election year for the GOP nationwide. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state was now considered a purple state. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.
Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls. This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in any of the seven key swing states, all of which he won. It was also Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
Republican primary
The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.
Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".
General election
Candidates
The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Jill Stein — Green
- President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in)
- Dawanda Shelton — Independent (Write-in)
- Joel Skousen — Constitution Party (Write-in)
Election rule changes
Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered. In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
Results
County that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Maricopa (largest city: Phoenix)
By congressional district
Trump won six of nine congressional districts.
Analysis
Trump received more than 1.77 million votes, setting a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona. Trump reclaimed the largest county in the state, Maricopa, although it once again voted to the left of the state, a trend that started in 2016 and foreshadowed his 2020 loss of the state. Harris did not get over 60% of the vote in a single county. Arizona was one of three swing states, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Harris received fewer raw votes than Biden in 2020. In addition, of the seven swing states, she suffered her worst raw vote drop-off compared to Biden in Arizona, winning 90,000 fewer votes. Notably, Arizona was the only state in which the Trump campaign turned over most campaign functions to well-funded outside groups such as Turning Point Action (which is headquartered in Phoenix), who focused exclusively on turning out low-propensity Republicans instead of winning over Democrats, as Republicans represent a majority of Arizona's party registration. Specifically, Turning Point significantly influenced Arizona college students, typically low-propensity voters, to support Donald Trump. A key strategy was founder Charlie Kirk’s high-profile "Prove Me Wrong" events on college campuses, where he debated students on critical issues, as thousands more watched. The Harris campaign, on the other hand, handled her campaigning in-house.
Trump's gains in Arizona were mostly powered by suburban voters returning to the Republican Party and large gains among Hispanic Americans. In Maricopa County, Arizona's largest and the only county to flip, the vast majority of precincts shifted to the right, with Trump's strongest gains coming from traditionally conservative East Valley cities that had been drifting left as well as Hispanic-majority neighborhoods in south and east Phoenix. Trump also gained in Arizona's Hispanic-majority border counties, gaining over 11% in Yuma County, which had been shifting heavily since Trump first won it in 2016. He also made gains in traditionally Democratic counties that remained in the Democratic column, such as Santa Cruz County, which trended over 9% Republican from 2020 - Trump's second largest improvement in the state. Illegal immigration was a major concern among border counties that shifted towards Trump.
Despite Harris losing the state, Democrat Ruben Gallego did win the 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona, in part due to ticket-splitting and because some Trump voters did not vote down-ballot.
Exit poll data
CNN conducted an exit poll in Arizona for both the presidential race and concurrent U.S. Senate race. They surveyed 4,612 voters across the state.