The Russo-Ukrainian war began in February 2014 and is ongoing. Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia occupied Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine. It then supported Russian separatist armed groups who started a war in the eastern Donbas region against Ukraine's military. In 2018, Ukraine declared the region to be occupied by Russia. The first eight years of conflict also involved naval incidents and cyberwarfare. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and began occupying more of the country, starting the current phase of the war, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. The war has resulted in a refugee crisis and hundreds of thousands of deaths.
In early 2014, the Euromaidan protests led to the Revolution of Dignity and the flight of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Immediately after, unmarked Russian troops occupied Crimea. In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea after an illegitimate referendum. Meanwhile, pro-Russian protests began in parts of southeastern Ukraine. In April 2014, Russian-backed militants seized towns and cities in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) as independent states, starting the Donbas war. Russia covertly supported the separatists with its own troops, tanks, and artillery, preventing Ukraine from fully retaking the territory. The International Criminal Court (ICC) judged that the war was both a national and international armed conflict involving Russia, and the European Court of Human Rights judged that Russia controlled the DPR and LPR from 2014 onward. In February 2015, Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk II agreements, but they were never fully implemented in the following years. The Donbas war became a static conflict likened to trench warfare; ceasefires were repeatedly broken, but the frontlines did not move.
Beginning in 2021, there was a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine's borders, including within neighbouring Belarus. Russian officials repeatedly denied plans to attack Ukraine. Russia's president Vladimir Putin voiced expansionist views and challenged Ukraine's right to exist. He demanded that Ukraine be barred from ever joining the NATO military alliance. Ukraine had been officially a neutral country when the conflict began, but because of Russia's attacks, it revived plans to join NATO. In early 2022, Russia recognised the DPR and LPR as independent states. While Russian troops surrounded Ukraine, its proxies stepped up attacks on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.
On 24 February 2022, Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine, claiming Russia had no plans to occupy the country. The Russian invasion that followed was internationally condemned; many countries imposed sanctions against Russia and sent humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. In the face of fierce resistance, Russia abandoned an attempt to seize Kyiv in early April. In August, Ukrainian forces began liberating territories in the north-east and south. In September, Russia declared the annexation of four partially occupied provinces, which was internationally condemned. Since then, Russian offensives and Ukrainian counteroffensives have gained only small amounts of territory. The invasion has also led to attacks in Russia by Ukrainian and Ukrainian-backed forces, among them a cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. Russia has repeatedly carried out deliberate and indiscriminate attacks on civilians far from the frontline. The UN Human Rights Office reported that Russia was committing severe human rights violations in occupied Ukraine. The ICC opened an investigation into war crimes and issued arrest warrants for Putin and several other Russian officials. Russia has repeatedly refused calls for a ceasefire.
Background
Independent Ukraine and the Orange Revolution
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine and Russia maintained ties. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and agreed to give up the former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In return, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States agreed to uphold the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine through the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. In 1997, Russia signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act, in which it acknowledged that "NATO has expanded and will continue to expand its political functions". In 1999, it was also one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, affirming the right of each state "to choose or change its security arrangements" and to join military alliances if it wishes. Several former Eastern Bloc countries joined NATO, partly in response to regional security threats involving Russia. In 2005, Putin said that if Ukraine and other former Soviet states wanted to join NATO, "we will respect their choice, because it is their sovereign right to decide their own defense policy, and this will not worsen relations between our countries." Putin later said Western powers broke promises by expanding NATO eastward, even though no agreements or promises to this effect were made.
The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial. During the election campaign, pro-Western opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by TCDD dioxin; he later accused Russia of involvement. The more Russia-friendly candidate Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, despite allegations of vote-rigging by election observers. During a two-month period which became known as the Orange Revolution, large peaceful protests successfully challenged the outcome, and the Supreme Court of Ukraine annulled the result due to widespread electoral fraud. A re-run election was won by Yushchenko. The Russian government sees the Orange Revolution as one of the "colour revolutions" in former Soviet states. According to Anthony Cordesman, Russian military officers viewed such "colour revolutions" as attempts by the US and European countries to undermine Russia.
Russo-Georgian War
At the 2008 Bucharest summit, Ukraine and Georgia sought to join NATO, but NATO members were split. Western European countries opposed offering Membership Action Plans (MAP) to Ukraine and Georgia, fearing it would unsettle Russia. NATO refused to offer Ukraine and Georgia MAPs but also issued a statement agreeing that "these countries will become members of NATO" at some point. Putin strongly opposed their NATO membership bids.
Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 and took control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, demonstrating Russia's willingness to use military force to attain its political objectives. Political scientist Paul D'Anieri says the United States "was accused of appeasement and naivete" over its reaction to the invasion. The West's weak response in 2008—and later in 2014—contributed to Russia's assessment of Western warnings against the 2022 invasion as not serious, and, according to political scientist Samuel Ramani, encouraged further Russian aggression.
Euromaidan and Revolution of Dignity
Viktor Yanukovych won the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election. In early 2013, the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly approved of finalising a free trade and association agreement with the European Union (EU). The Kremlin pressured Ukraine to reject this agreement; Russia imposed embargoes on Ukrainian goods and threatened further sanctions. Kremlin adviser Sergey Glazyev warned that Russia might no longer acknowledge Ukraine's borders if the agreement was signed.
Under pressure from Russia, in November 2013, Ukrainian president Yanukovych suddenly withdrew from signing the agreement. This sparked a wave of massive protests, known as the "Euromaidan." The protesters opposed Russian interference, government corruption, abuse of power, and human rights violations, including new anti-protest laws.
The protests led to the Revolution of Dignity. On 28 January 2014, Ukraine's government resigned. On 18–20 February, more than 100 protesters were killed in clashes with Berkut special riot police; most were shot by the Berkut. On 21 February, President Yanukovych and the opposition leaders signed an agreement to bring about an interim unity government, urgent constitutional changes (which needed to be signed by the president), and early elections. However, Yanukovych secretly fled the capital that evening and did not inform parliament of his whereabouts. The next day, Ukraine's parliament unanimously voted to remove Yanukovych from office. About 73% of the parliament and members of all parties voted to remove him, including members of his own party and of the pro-Russian Communist Party.
On 27 February, an interim government was established, and early presidential elections were scheduled. The following day, Yanukovych resurfaced in Russia and declared that he remained the president of Ukraine. Some political leaders in the mainly Russian-speaking eastern regions declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych.
Protests
From late February 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian, separatist, and counter-revolutionary groups took place in several cities in eastern and southern Ukraine. Most of the protests were in the Donbas region, made up of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast. In the last census, the population of the Donbas was about 58% ethnic Ukrainian and 38% ethnic Russian (Donetsk was 57% Ukrainian and 38% Russian, while Luhansk was 58% Ukrainian and 39% Russian). A national survey held in March–April 2014 found that 58% of respondents in the Donbas wanted to remain part of a unitary or federal Ukraine, while 31% wanted the region to separate from Ukraine. There were smaller protests in Kharkiv and Odesa.
Pro-Ukrainian demonstrations also took place in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. In Donetsk, rallies supporting Ukrainian unity took place in early March, including a large demonstration on 4 March, while pro-Ukrainian rallies were also held in Kramatorsk and Mariupol. On 9 March 2014, a rally in Luhansk commemorating the 200th anniversary of the birth of Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko was attacked by pro-Russian counter-demonstrators. The Eastern-Ukrainian Centre for Civic Initiatives later documented the violent dispersal of the gathering and the police's failure to maintain order.
The first pro-Russian protests were largely native expressions of discontent with the new Ukrainian government. On 23 February 2014, Ukraine's parliament adopted a bill to revoke the status of Russian as an official state language. The bill was not enacted, but the proposal caused anger among some Russian speakers in Ukraine. In the last census, 75% of people in Donetsk Oblast and 69% of people in Luhansk Oblast had Russian as their mother tongue, although most Ukrainian citizens spoke both Ukrainian and Russian. These regions mostly consumed Russia-based media, which promoted the narrative that Ukraine's new government was an illegitimate "fascist junta" and that ethnic Russians were in imminent danger.
Russia used the protests to launch a campaign of political warfare, information warfare, and irregular warfare against Ukraine. Leaked e-mails and telephone calls later revealed that the Russian state had funded the separatists and had organised separatist protests, mainly through Kremlin advisers Vladislav Surkov and Sergey Glazyev. Ukrainian authorities arrested local separatist leaders in early March. Those leaders were replaced by men with ties to the Russian security services and Russian business interests.
On 6 April 2014, hundreds of masked men stormed and seized weapons from the Security Service buildings in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Protesters then stormed and occupied the Donetsk regional government headquarters, raising the Russian flag and demanding a referendum on joining Russia. The next day, the activists held a meeting in the building and proclaimed the "Donetsk People's Republic" an independent state. On 29 April, armed pro-Russian activists stormed and occupied the Luhansk regional government headquarters, proclaiming the "Luhansk People's Republic."
Causes
According to political scientist Paul D'Anieri, Russia had the following four causes to start its war with Ukraine in 2014, as well as for the 2022 war:
- Russia's desire to regain control of Ukraine and turn it into a puppet regime.
- Russia's conception of itself as a great power entitled to a sphere of influence over the former Soviet Republics.
- The security dilemma in Europe, with Russia perceiving the expansion of NATO as a threat and other East European states desiring guarantees against Russian expansionism.
- Democratic Ukraine being perceived by Russia as a political threat to the authoritarian regime in Russia.
History
The Russian occupation of Crimea is usually deemed to be the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. This was followed by the War in Donbas (2014–2022) and then the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started the current phase of the war.
Historiography
Different start dates for the conflict have been identified. According to a number of scholars, the war began with the February 2014 Russian occupation of Crimea, in particular the 27 February storming of the Crimean parliament. The Ukrainian government declared 26 February the "Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea," as on that day in 2014 a Crimean Tatar rally was held to oppose Russian interference. Some, including political scientist Andreas Umland, prefer 20 February – the day Russia supposedly issued orders to prepare for the invasion of Crimea, which is also the date engraved on the Russian Crimea campaign medal. Dutch Professor of Military History, Floribert Baudet, asserted that "Russia's war against Ukraine did not start in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea" because Russia had been subverting Ukrainian sovereignty long before this.
Analysts also differ over the nature of the conflict. Paul D'Anieri describes "a limited war in 2014, and then [a] much less limited war in 2022." In contrast, Ukrainian-American historian Serhii Plokhy said in 2023 of the then-ongoing war that "I decline the temptation to identify the date of February 24, 2022, as its beginning, no matter the shock and drama of the all-out Russian assault on Ukraine, for the simple reason that the war began eight years earlier, on February 27, 2014."
Russian annexation of Crimea (2014)
On 27 February 2014, Russian soldiers without insignia began to occupy Crimea. At first, Russia denied that the soldiers were theirs, instead claiming they were local "self-defense" units. Later, Putin admitted that they were Russian special forces and said that he decided to "return" Crimea to Russia when the revolution happened. Russia took advantage of the uncertainty in Ukraine immediately after the ousting of Yanukovych.
The unmarked Russian soldiers seized the Crimean parliament and government buildings in Simferopol, as well as setting up checkpoints to restrict movement and cut off the Crimean peninsula from the rest of Ukraine. While the armed men occupied Crimea's parliament, it dismissed the Crimean government and installed a pro-Russian government under Sergey Aksyonov, whose party won only 4% of votes in the last election. Historian Andrew Wilson and journalist Luke Harding called this the "Crimean coup." The parliament then announced a referendum on Crimea's status. No journalists had been allowed inside, and some MPs said votes had been cast for them even though they were not present. Russian rebel commander Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin later admitted:
Unfortunately, I saw no support from public authorities in Simferopol ... Rebels assembled lawmakers to corral them into the hall so that they could vote. I was one of the commanders of those rebels. I saw that from the inside.