The terms Second Cold War, Cold War II, and New Cold War have been used by scholars and journalists to describe heightened geopolitical tensions in the 21st century post–Cold War era, usually between the United States and NATO on one side and Russia or China (or both) on the other. Some commentators have used the terms as a comparison to the original Cold War, while others have discouraged their use to refer to any ongoing tensions. In the 20th century, the terms were previously referred to one of later phases of the original Cold War. In the early post-Cold War era, the terms were used sparingly and variously for past predictions.
Over the years, the terms have been increasingly used to describe the United States's and NATO's heightened tensions with Russia, which is regarded as the successor state to the Soviet Union, which led the Eastern Bloc during the original Cold War. However, such use to describe the tensions between NATO and Russia or between the US and Russia, especially in relations to the Russo-Ukrainian war, has been criticised. When the terms have been used to describe the US's heightened tensions with China, which has been a communist state since the Chinese Civil War concluded in 1949 with the Communist victory, the context has been often used to criticise foreign policies of the US president Donald Trump. The terms have been sometimes used to describe tensions in multilateral relations, including China–Russia relations, or in the context of international conflicts.
Usage during original Cold War
The phrase "new Cold War" was first used in 1955 by US secretary of state John Foster Dulles, and in a 1956 New York Times article warning of Soviet propaganda promoting the Cold War's resurgence. Other analysts, such as academics Fred Halliday, Alan M. Wald, David S. Painter, and Noam Chomsky, used the interchangeable terms to refer to the 1979–1985 or 1985–1991 phases of the Cold War. Some other analysts used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. Columnist William Safire argued in a 1975 New York Times editorial that the Nixon administration's policy of détente with the Soviet Union had failed and that "Cold War II" was then underway. Academic Gordon H. Chang used the term "Cold War II" to refer to the Cold War period after the 1972 meeting in China between US president Richard Nixon and Chinese Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong.
Past predictions
In May 1998, George Kennan described the US Senate vote to expand NATO to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as "the beginning of a new cold war", and predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies". In 2001, foreign policy and security experts James M. Lindsay and Ivo Daalder described counterterrorism as the "new Cold War". British journalist Edward Lucas wrote in February 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.
Usage in a multilateral context
Before 2021
The Independent in 2008 described the Russo-Georgian War as "reviv[ing] the spectre of the most tense days of the Cold War" and described it as the beginning of a "new Cold War".
In a 2016 op-ed for The Straits Times, Kor Kian Beng wrote that the phrase "new Cold War" between US-led allies versus Beijing and Moscow did not gain traction in China at first when it first emerged in 2014. He says this changed in 2016 after the United States announced its plan to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea against North Korea, but China and Russia found the advanced anti-missile system too close for comfort. The US also supported a tribunal ruling against China in favor of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Afterwards, he wrote, the term "new Cold War" appeared in Chinese media more often.
In a June 2019 interview with a college magazine, University of Southern California (USC) professors Steven Lamy and Robert D. English agreed that talk of a "new Cold War" was intended to distract political publics from bigger issues such as globalisation, global warming, global poverty and increasing inequality. Lamy said there was no new Cold War ("although it serves a purpose for some people to suggest that, especially those who want to increase military budgets") but instead described the heightened global tension as a period of great power rivalry between the US, China and Russia. English said that a new Cold War had already begun, and that China poses a far greater threat to the West than Russia in cyberwarfare but not as much as far-right populism does from within liberal states.
2021–2025
In his September 2021 speech to the United Nations General Assembly, US president Joe Biden said that the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs". Biden further said that the US would cooperate "with any nation that steps up and pursues peaceful resolution to shared challenges", despite "intense disagreement in other areas, because we'll all suffer the consequences of our failure".
In May 2022, David Panuelo, President of Micronesia, used the term to state his opposition to a proposed cooperation agreement between China and ten island nations, by claiming it could create a "new 'cold war' between China and the West".
In June 2022, journalist Michael Hirsh used the term "Global Cold War" to refer to tensions between leaders of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and China and its ally Russia, both countries striving to challenge the US's role as a superpower. Hirsh further cited growing tensions between the US and China as one of the causes of the newer Cold War alongside NATO's speech about China's "systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security". He further cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as one of factors of the newer Cold War's rise.
In July 2022, James Traub used the term while discussing how the ideas of the Non-Aligned Movement, a forum of neutral countries organised during the original Cold War, can be used to understand the reaction of democratic countries in the developing world to current tensions.
In the same month, France, the United States and Russia scheduled high-level, multi-country diplomatic visits in Africa. Reporting on these trips, Associated Press quoted William Gumede of Democracy Works saying "It’s like a new Cold War is playing out in Africa, where the rival sides are trying to gain influence" used the term "new Cold War"; AP commented "some say is the most intense competition for influence [in Africa] since the Cold War".
An editorial by Christian Breuer said "It is conceivable that we see the rebirth of a new era of conflict, the end of the late 20th century unipolar international security architecture under the hegemony of the United States, the end of globalisation and the beginning of a new cold war between the West and the East."
In August 2022, an analysis by journalist Anshel Pfeffer in Haaretz used the term to refer to the US's "open confrontation with Russia and China", concluding that "in the new Cold War, [Israel] cannot allow itself to be neutral". In the same month, Katrina vanden Heuvel cautioned against what she perceived as a "reflexive bipartisan embrace of a new Cold War" against Russia and China among US politicians.
In September 2022, Greek civil engineer and politician Anna Diamantopoulou stated that, despite unity of NATO members, "the West has lost much of its normative power", citing her "meetings with politicians from Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East". She further stated that the West will risk losing "a new cold war" unless it overcomes challenges that would give Russia and China a greater world advantage.
In September 2023, a USC professor Brett L. Carter wrote on his Foreign Affairs piece how the second cold war, exacerbated by China's influence in African affairs, would cause weakened democracy in Africa to recede back to authoritarianism, leading to potential economic hindrance for the continent. As further noted by Carter, while China had been "the Soviet Union's junior partner" to rival the US in the original Cold War, the Soviet Union's successor Russia in the newer cold war has had "more narrow" interests in Africa than China has. Nevertheless, Carter noted how China's and Russia's own domestic situations would hamper Africa's long-term goals. Carter further suggested that the US do more to counter the influences of China and Russia toward Africa.
In the same period, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea Kim Jong Un called for an accelerated increase in the production of domestic nuclear weapons in response to the world entering a "new Cold War" between the United States and a "coalition of nations" including China, Russia, and North Korea.
In December 2023, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the deepening "fragmentation" between the two power blocs—one by the United States and European allies; another by China and Russia—would lead to "cold war two", impacting "gains from open trade" and risking potentially loss of up to US$7 trillion.
In a June 2024 article in The Diplomat, University of Bonn (Germany) professor Maximilian Mayer and Jagiellonian University (Poland) professor Emilian Kavalski opined that the China–Russia relations have been stronger than before and that Xi's China will "fully back Putin's effort to threaten and undermine liberal democratic states", threatening European security and dashing any hopes that the relations between the two countries would become further strained. Mayer and Kavalski criticised Europe for lacking "historical templates" and its "tripartite approach to China—as [its] partner, competitor, and rival" as "woefully outdated because it [the approach] lacks a security angle altogether". Both the professors further advised Europe to address China's strong ties with and strong support for Russia's further aggressive plans toward Europe.
2025–present
Further divisions that outlets described as such occurred after the launch of international artificial intelligence and technology initiatives of Pax Silica by US in December 2025, and subsequent WAICO by China seven months later. As of 2026, US-led organisation consist of twenty-four countries—most of them also members of NATO or European Union—while Chinese bloc contains thirty-seven. Kazakhstan is the only country to be a member of both agreements.
In February 2026, before an upcoming US–Brazil meeting, the Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a news conference in New Delhi that Brazil wants neither "a new Cold War" nor any country's intervention but rather be "treated equally" like all other countries. He declared this a message to the second administration of Donald Trump, who became the US president again in 2025, succeeding Biden.
Usage in the context of Russia–United States/NATO tensions
Some analysts used the term to describe the worsening relations between Russia on one side and the West or NATO, or more specifically the United States on the other since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and intervention in Eastern Ukraine, which started the Russo-Ukrainian war. Others argue that the term is not appropriate.
In relation to the Russo-Ukrainian war (2014–2021)
Analysts disagree as to whether a period of global tension analogous to the Cold War is possible in the future, while others, like Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin, used the term to describe the ongoing renewed tensions and hostilities that rose dramatically in 2014 between Russia and the West. Some political analysts argue that Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, which started the Russo-Ukrainian war, marked the beginning of a new Cold War between Russia and the West or NATO. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and European Union, imposed punitive measures on Russia, which introduced retaliatory measures.
In 2014, notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned, against the backdrop of a confrontation between Russia and the West over the Russo-Ukrainian War, that the world was on the brink of a new cold war, or that it was already occurring. The American political scientist Robert Legvold also believes a new cold war between Russia and the West started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and supported an insurgency in eastern Ukraine. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, argued that the Ukraine conflict did not fit his definition of a cold war.
Stephen F. Cohen, Robert D. Crane, and Alex Vatanka, among others, have all referred to a "US–Russian Cold War". Those opposed to the term argue that while new tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict have similarities with those during the Cold War, there are also major differences, and provide Russia with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in Belarus and Central Asia, which have not seen the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine and the Caucasus region.