The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active Atlantic hurricane season, and is considered to be the start of an ongoing era of high-activity tropical cyclone formation. The season produced twenty-one tropical cyclones, nineteen named storms, as well as eleven hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin. The first tropical cyclone, Hurricane Allison, developed on June 2, while the season's final storm, Hurricane Tanya, transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on November 1. The very active Atlantic hurricane activity in 1995 was caused by La Niña conditions, which also influenced an inactive Pacific hurricane season. It was tied with 1887 with 19 named storms, which was later equalled by the 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.
There were four particularly destructive hurricanes during the season: Luis, Marilyn, Opal and Roxanne. Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn both caused catastrophic damage in the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands. The former storm was the first hurricane to affect the islands since Hugo in 1989, while the latter was the most devastating cyclone on the Virgin Islands since Hugo as well. Opal, the strongest and most intense storm of the season, caused devastation along portions of the Gulf Coast of the United States. Roxanne, a rare late-season major hurricane, caused significant damage when it made landfall in Quintana Roo. All four aforementioned names were retired following the season. Additionally, Erin produced moderate damage in Florida and into Alabama. Felix generated strong waves, causing heavy beach erosion in the Northeastern United States and drowning nine people. Iris caused flooding that left five deaths in the Lesser Antilles. Collectively, the tropical cyclones of the season caused about $12.35 billion (1995 USD) in damage and at least 185 deaths.
Seasonal forecasts
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts such as Dr. William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University (CSU) and the Weather Research Center (WRC). A normal season, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has 12.1 named storms; of these, 6.4 reach hurricane strength; and 2.7 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additionally, the 1950–2000 CSU average for a normal season is 9.6 named storms, of these 5.9 reach hurricane strength, and 2.3 become major hurricanes.
In December 1994, CSU predicted that only 12 named storms would form and 8 of those would become hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes were projected. CSU noted an above average season due to expectations that the existing El Niño would dissipate, while a La Niña would develop by the summer of 1995. Additionally, the western areas of the Sahara Desert were predicted to have the fourth or fifth rainiest season since 1970. A year with heavier precipitation in this region usually correlates with an active Atlantic hurricane season. In April 1995, CSU revised their forecast, decreasing the number of named storms to 10, hurricanes to 6, and major hurricanes to 2. However, in June, CSU reverted to their December forecast, which called for 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The forecast by the WRC in early 1995 was 10 named storms and 6 hurricanes, with no prediction on the number of major hurricanes.
Seasonal summary
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and activity in 1995 began two days later with the formation of Hurricane Allison on June 3. It was a well-above average season in which 21 tropical depressions formed, 19 of which attained tropical storm status, and 11 of these attained hurricane status. In addition, five tropical cyclones reached major hurricane status, which was well above the 1950–2005 average of two per season. At the time, only 1933 surpassed the season's total storms, making the season the second most active in recorded history tying with 1887. The 1995 season would be the beginning of a high-activity period in the Atlantic basin, also known as a warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which has lasted for about 30 years. Collectively, the tropical cyclones of this season caused 185 deaths and about $12.35 billion in damage. The last storm of the season, Hurricane Tanya, became extratropical on November 1, over four weeks before the official end of the season on November 30.
Tropical cyclogenesis in the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season began with the development of Hurricane Allison on June 2. The month of July was very active, with four tropical cyclones forming. This record of storms in July stood until the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season when five storms formed in July. A total of seven storms formed in August — Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen, and Luis — tying the 1933 record for most in the month; this record was broken in the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season when eight named storms formed during August. Although September is the climatological peak of hurricane season, it was much less active than August. Four tropical cyclones developed in September, with Marilyn, Noel, and Opal eventually strengthening into hurricanes. Four tropical cyclones also formed in October; notably, Hurricane Roxanne developed in that month. The last storm of the season, Hurricane Tanya, developed later in October and eventually became extratropical on November 1. This was the first time since forecasters began assigning given names to tropical storms in 1950 that names starting with the letters "O" and beyond were used.
The season's activity was reflected with a very high accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 227, the fifth highest value on record, and far above the 1981–2010 median of 92. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. Therefore, a system with a longer duration or stronger intensity will have a higher value of ACE. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. After the storm has dissipated, typically after the end of the season, the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm. These revisions can lead to a revised ACE total either upward or downward compared to the operational value.
Systems
Hurricane Allison
A westward moving tropical wave reached the Caribbean Sea in late May and gradually organized over the next few days. Around 00:00 UTC on June 3, a tropical depression developed about 265 miles (426 km) east of Belize City, Belize. The depression initially moved northwestward before recurving to the north. The depression entered the Gulf of Mexico and strengthened into Tropical Storm Allison by 12:00 UTC. Despite unfavorable upper-level winds, the storm intensified into a hurricane about 24 hours later. Allison then peaked with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 987 mbar (29.1 inHg). Increasing wind shear weakened it to a tropical storm early on June 5. At 14:00 UTC, Allison made landfall near Alligator Point, Florida, with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). After briefly emerging over Apalachee Bay, Allison struck near St. Marks with winds of 65 mph (105 km/h). Early on June 6, Allison weakened to a tropical depression, shortly before becoming extratropical. The remnants continued northeastward and later struck Newfoundland before dissipating near Greenland on June 11.
While brushing Cuba, Allison produced wind gusts up to 64 mph (103 km/h) and as much as 18 in (460 mm) of rainfall. A total of 32 structures were damaged or destroyed, causing one death. In Florida, storm surge heights of 6 to 8 feet (1.8 to 2.4 m) were observed in Dixie and Wakulla counties and 2 to 6 ft (0.61 to 1.83 m) to the east, causing significant beach erosion and damaging 65 homes, 3 hotels, and a restaurant. Elsewhere in Florida, damage was generally minor, totaling only about $860,000. In Georgia, there was minor flooding and tornadoes, one of which caused $800,000 in damage in St. Marys. Some locations in Atlantic Canada reported tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall.
Tropical Storm Barry
A frontal low situated between Bermuda and South Carolina developed into Tropical Depression Two late on July 6. Strong wind shear initially prevented significant strengthening, though by early on July 7, the depression became Tropical Storm Barry. A nearby trough enhanced convection and caused strengthening, with maximum sustained winds reaching 70 mph (110 km/h) later that day. Later on July 8, Barry weakened slightly, falling to winds of 50 mph (80 km/h), an intensity it would retain until landfall. An approaching mid-level trough accelerated the storm as it traveled roughly along the Gulf Stream. Early on July 9, convection began to shift away from the storm's center. While moving rapidly northeastward, Barry made landfall in Hart Island, Nova Scotia, late on July 9.
It weakened slightly and made landfall on Cape Breton Island less than an hour later. Cold water caused deep convection to diminish as it was making landfall, and the storm lost most remaining tropical characteristics as it tracked toward Newfoundland. Barry was declared extratropical early on July 10 near the west coast of Newfoundland. As a fast-moving and weakening extratropical cyclone, the system remained distinct until it passed across the east coast of Labrador, when it dissipated. Tropical storm force winds were recorded at Fourchu, Nova Scotia, as well as wind gusts up to 62 mph (100 km/h) at Port aux Basques, Newfoundland. Barry dropped significant rainfall, peaking at 4.33 in (110 mm) in Nova Scotia, with lesser totals at several other locations.
Tropical Storm Chantal
A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa on July 5. During the next week, the wave improved on satellite imagery and developed into a tropical depression about 420 mi (680 km) east-northeast of Guadeloupe on July 12. The depression quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Chantal. Initially, Chantal threatened the Bahamas, and the Government of the Bahamas issued tropical storm watches and warnings, which were in effect for the southeast and central islands as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. However, Chantal re-curved to the north and did not directly affect the Bahamas. After the cyclone turned northward, it threatened Bermuda, which prompted a tropical storm watch for the island on July 16. The watch was canceled on July 18 as the storm passed well northwest of the island.
By early on July 17, Chantal attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 991 mbar (29.3 inHg). Thereafter, the storm began weakening and slowly losing tropical characteristics. At 18:00 UTC on July 20, Chantal transitioned into an extratropical storm about 225 mi (362 km) east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The remnants continued rapidly northeastward and later east-northeastward, before dissipating west of the British Isles on July 22. Although Chantal remained well offshore, the storm dropped heavy rainfall in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, peaking at 3 in (76 mm) on the Burin Peninsula. Further west in Nova Scotia, heavier precipitation was reported, peaking at 4.84 in (123 mm) near Barrington.
Tropical Storm Dean
A stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico developed an upper-level circulation. By July 28, the system organized enough to be classified as Tropical Depression Four. Despite favorable conditions, the depression tracked westward without significantly intensifying, due to the poor organization of the storm itself. As the depression curved west-northwestward, it began to strengthen and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean while located only 70 mi (110 km) from the Texas coastline on July 30. The system made landfall early on July 31 near Freeport with winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 999 mbar (999 hPa; 29.5 inHg). Shortly thereafter, Dean weakened back to a tropical depression. The storm continued to slowly weaken as it moved northwestward, dissipating on August 2 near the Texas–Oklahoma border.
Storm surge caused minor coastal flooding, especially on Galveston Island. Dean produced a large swath of rainfall between 5 and 10 in (130 and 250 mm), while some areas received more than 17 in (430 mm). Precipitation from the storm caused moderate localized flood damage. A total of 20 families in Chambers County evacuated, while 38 houses in the southeastern portions of Texas were flooded. Two tornadoes were also reported in the state, but neither caused significant damage. In Oklahoma, heavy rainfall flooded more than 40 houses and left about 24 cars stranded. At least three highways suffered significant flooding, while other minor roads were closed for several days. Outside of Oklahoma and Texas, the remnants of the storm dropped rainfall in several Midwestern states, though minimal damage occurred. Despite the flooding, property damage estimates were only $500,000, while one fatality occurred.