The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego won his first term in office, defeating Republican former news anchor Kari Lake. He succeeded independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win. Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.
Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth-largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. Gallego particularly benefitted from ticket splitting among Hispanics, who according to exit polls gave Gallego 60% of their votes, compared to 54% for Harris. Specifically, Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.
This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population. This was the first time since 2006 that any candidate won a majority of the vote in this seat. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Arizona since 2016.
Similarly to the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, Lake refused to concede defeat.
Background
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.
Democratic primary
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.
Candidates
Nominee
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–2025)
Declined
- Kate Gallego, mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)
- Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018) (ran for re-election)
Endorsements
Ruben Gallego
Federal officials
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state (2009–2013)
U.S. senators
- Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)
- Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)
U.S. representatives
- Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)
- Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)
- Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–2025)
- Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)
- Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)
- Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)
Statewide officials
- Katie Hobbs, governor of Arizona (2023–present)
- Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation commissioner (2021–2025)
State legislators
- Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)
- Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)
- Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate minority leader (2023–2025) from the 12th district (2023–present)
- Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)
- Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)
- 7 state representatives
Local officials
- Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–2024)
- Kate Gallego, mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)
- Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)
Individuals
- Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer
- Mark Hamill, actor
- Dolores Huerta, labor leader
Political parties
Labor unions
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Arizona AFL-CIO
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104
- National Education Association
- United Farm Workers
- United Mine Workers of America
Organizations
- Brady PAC
- CHC BOLD PAC
- Climate Hawks Vote
- Council for a Livable World
- Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Fairshake
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- Indivisible
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Latino Victory Fund
- League of Conservation Voters
- People for the American Way
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- Swing Left
- UnidosUS
- VoteVets
Tribes
- Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community
- San Carlos Apache Tribe
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022
Eliminated in primary
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County sheriff (2017–2024)
- Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)
- Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
- Abraham Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County attorney's office and nominee for Arizona attorney general in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
- Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022 (endorsed Lake)
- Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018
Endorsements
Kari Lake
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)
- Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)
- John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)
- Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019–present)
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)
- Chuck Grassley, Iowa (1981–present)
- Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)
- Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)
- Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023–present)
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)
- Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)
- John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)
- JD Vance, Ohio (2023–2025)
- Roger Wicker, Mississippi (2007–present)
U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–2025)
- Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)
- Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–2024)
- Louie Gohmert, TX-01 (2005–2023)
- Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)
- Ronny Jackson, TX-13 (2021–present)
- Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)
- Cory Mills, FL-07 (2023–present)
- Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)
Statewide officials
- Doug Burgum, governor of North Dakota (2016–2024)
- Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general (2015–present)
State officials
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021)
State senators
- Dave Farnsworth, state senator from SD-10 (2023–present)
- Jake Hoffman, SD-15 (2023–present)
- Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)
- Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)
State representatives
- Alexander Kolodin, SD-03 (2023–present)
Organizations
- Citizens United PVF
- College Republicans of America
- National Republican Senatorial Committee
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Republican National Hispanic Assembly
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Turning Point Action
Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United
- Blake Masters, venture capitalist
- Chad Prather, comedian
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024
Mark Lamb
Green primary
The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green Party's website stated that party leaders alleged that Norton was a plant for the Democratic Party, and that Hernandez was a plant for the Republican Party.
Candidates
Nominee
- Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party
Eliminated in primary
- Arturo Hernandez
- Mike Norton, nonprofit executive
Endorsements
Eduardo Heredia Quintana
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–2025)
Fundraising
Italics indicate a declined candidate
General election
Campaign strategy
Gallego's campaign emphasized his military service record, highlighting his deployment to Iraq as a Marine Corps infantryman. His campaign positioned his military credentials as evidence of his ability to work across party lines and appeal to independent voters. Lake's campaign focused on her alignment with Trump, and emphasized border security and election integrity issues.
Post-primary endorsements
Ruben Gallego (D)
Polling
Aggregate polls
Results
On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.
By congressional district
Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.