The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate in other states and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections.
The Democratic primary was held on March 22, 2016, while the Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016. After serving in the Arizona State Legislature and U.S. House of Representatives for a number of years, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office. McCain died in office on August 25, 2018
After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire, McCain subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet. On April 7, 2015, he announced that he would run for re-election. McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he ultimately defeated challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary.
McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing. Although McCain won reelection by double digits, this was the closest margin of his Senate career. It was also his first election in which he failed to win the traditionally Democratic counties of Coconino and Pima. As of 2024, this was the last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, and the last time Maricopa County voted for a Republican Senate candidate. Kirkpatrick would later successfully run again for the U.S. House of Representatives in Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2018 and 2020.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate in other states, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
The Democratic primary was held on March 22, 2016, while the Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016. After serving in the Arizona State Legislature and U.S. House of Representatives for a number of years, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office. McCain died in office on August 25, 2018
After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire, McCain subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet. On April 7, 2015, he announced that he would run for re-election. McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he ultimately defeated challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary.
McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing. Although McCain won reelection by double digits, this was the closest margin of his Senate career. It was also his first election in which he failed to win the traditionally Democratic counties of Coconino and Pima. As of 2024, this was the last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, and the last time Maricopa County voted for a Republican Senate candidate. Kirkpatrick would later successfully run again for the U.S. House of Representatives in Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2018 and 2020.
Republican primary
John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In September 2013 he hinted that he might retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said, "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off." He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election. By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."
In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. He faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who some felt was the weaker opponent. McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenger in 2016. A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents. An April 2014 survey by the Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).
Further compounding matters for McCain was his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party. After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing. Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election, with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war". However, McCain still had a large warchest – $1.7 million as of June 2014 – and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.
By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of his running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor." In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016." At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.
In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists. The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races. Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain. Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted. Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".
Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert had been widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, agreed that if one of them decided to run against McCain, the other would not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote wouldn't be split between them. Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but was considered the less likely of the two to run – he had much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and admitted that his wife was "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate. Salmon later stated that he would not challenge McCain in the primary.
In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]." Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race, with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.
McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.
Candidates
Declared
John McCain, incumbent U.S. senator
Clair Van Steenwyk, talk radio host, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate for Arizona's 8th congressional district in 2014
Kelli Ward, former state senator
Withdrawn
Alex Meluskey, printing company owner and FairTax activist
David Pizer, businessman
Declined
Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona
Jeff DeWit, state treasurer of Arizona
Trent Franks, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district
Paul Gosar, U.S. representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (ran for re-election)
Christine Jones, former executive vice president, general counsel and corporate secretary for Go Daddy and candidate for governor in 2014 (ran for U.S. House)
Martha McSally, U.S. representative from Arizona's 2nd congressional district (ran for re-election)
Matt Salmon, U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district
David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (ran for re-election)
John Shadegg, former U.S. representative
Grant Woods, former Arizona attorney general
Endorsements
John McCain
Individuals
John Bolton, 25th United States ambassador to the United Nations
Mark Brnovich, Arizona attorney general
George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 Republican nominee for Senate in California, and 2016 presidential candidate
Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former representative of Georgia's 6th congressional district
Luis Gonzalez, former Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder and notable Cuban-American
Fred Karger, political consultant and 2012 presidential candidate
Evan McMullin, former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives, former CIA operations officer and 2016 independent candidate for president
Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican nominee for president
Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee
Donald Trump, 2016 Republican presidential nominee, later 45th and 47th president of the United States
Senators
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Senator David Perdue (R-GA)
Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
Governors
Former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer (22nd governor, State of Arizona)
Governor Doug Ducey, current governor of Arizona
Governor Jane D. Hull (20th governor, State of Arizona)
Governor John Kasich (former governor of Ohio)
Governor Mike Pence of Indiana and 48th vice president of the United States
Governor Fife Symington (19th governor, State of Arizona)
Mayors
Mayor Richard Anderson, Kingman, Arizona
Mayor Gail Barney, Queen Creek, Arizona
Mayor Robin Boyd, Winslow, Arizona
Former mayor Barbara Brewer, Payson, Arizona
Former mayor Greg Bryan, Tusayan, Arizona
Mayor Cathy Carlat, Peoria, Arizona
Mayor Tom Claridge, Pima, Arizona
Mayor Michael Collins, Paradise Valley, Arizona
Mayor John Doyle, Nogales, Arizona
Mayor Kenny Evans, Payson, Arizona
Mayor Vincent Francia, Cave Creek, Arizona
Mayor Charles German, Camp Verde, Arizona
Mayor Chris Gibbs, Safford, Arizona
Mayor John Giles, Mesa, Arizona
Former mayor Hugh Hallman, Tempe, Arizona
Mayor Satish Hiremath, Oro Valley, Arizona
Mayor Ed Honea, Marana, Arizona
Mayor John Insalaco, Apache Junction, Arizona
Mayor Robert Irvin, Willcox, Arizona
Mayor R.E. Isakson, Patagonia, Arizona
Mayor Diane Joens, Cottonwood, Arizona
Mayor Alvy Johnson, Fredonia, Arizona
Former mayor Martin Kuykendall, Prescott, Arizona
Vice Mayor Sheri Lauritano, Goodyear, Arizona
Mayor Michael LeVault, Youngtown, Arizona
Mayor John Lewis, Gilbert, Arizona
Mayor Georgia Lord, Goodyear, Arizona
Mayor Cecilia McCollough, Wellton, Arizona
Mayor Ronnie McDaniel, Star Valley, Arizona
Mayor Jackie Meck, Buckeye, Arizona
Mayor Lana Mook, El Mirage, Arizona
Mayor John Moore, Williams, Arizona
Mayor Rick Mueller, Sierra Vista, Arizona
Mayor Douglas Nicholls, Yuma, Arizona
Mayor Terry Nolan, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona
Mayor Harry Oberg, Prescott, Arizona
Mayor Ryan Patterson, St. Johns, Arizona
Mayor Les Peterson, Carefree, Arizona
Mayor Tom Poscharsky, Snowflake, Arizona
Mayor Bob Rivera, Thatcher, Arizona
Mayor Jerry Sanchez, San Luis, Arizona
Mayor Graig Sanderson, Tusayan, Arizona
Mayor Thomas Schoaf, Litchfield Park, Arizona
Mayor Daryl Seymore, Show Low, Arizona
Former vice mayor Onnie Shekerjian, Tempe, Arizona
Mayor Harvy Skoog, Prescott Valley, Arizona
Mayor Gregory Smith, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona
Former mayor Scott Smith, Mesa, Arizona
Former mayor Bob Stain, Sierra Vista, Arizona
Mayor Ken Taylor, Huachuca City, Arizona
Mayor Jay Tibshraeny, Chandler, Arizona
Vice Mayor Douglas Treadway, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona
Mayor Bobby Tyler, Holbrook, Arizona
Mayor Billy Waters, Duncan, Arizona
Mayor Kenneth Weise, Avondale, Arizona
Former mayor Roger Williams, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona
Organizations
National Border Patrol Council
National Federation of Independent Business
National Right to Life
Organization of Iranian American Communities, U.S.