The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose ten electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican nominee Donald Trump against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
On April 5, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Wisconsin voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president in an open primary; voters were allowed to vote in either party's primary regardless of their own party affiliation. Bernie Sanders prevailed in Wisconsin's Democratic primary, while Ted Cruz won Wisconsin's Republican primary.
In the general election, Donald Trump unexpectedly won Wisconsin, defeating Clinton by a margin of 0.77%, with 47.22% of the total votes to 46.45%, the lowest percentage of victory since 2004. Trump's victory in Wisconsin was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all. As of 2024, this is the last time that Door County voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election, and the only time since 1960 that the Democratic presidential nominee won the nationwide popular vote without winning Wisconsin.
Primaries
Wisconsin held its presidential primaries on April 5, 2016.
Democratic primary
Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016
The Democrats held their sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. The debate was hosted by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff; it aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Republican primary
Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015
The Republicans held their fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015, in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal, who ended his campaign a week after the debate.
Green Party presidential preference convention
The Wisconsin Green Party held its presidential preference vote at its annual state convention in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 16.
General election
Voting history
Wisconsin joined the Union in May 1848 and has participated in all elections from 1848 onwards. Since 1900, Wisconsin has been won by the Democrats and Republicans the same number of times. Republican-turned-Progressive Robert M. La Follette Sr. carried the state in the 1924 presidential election.
The state voted for the Democratic nominee in the seven elections from 1988 to 2012, although sometimes by small margins, as it was in 1992, 2000, and 2004. There were other occasions, in contrast, when the margin of victory was substantial, such as 1996, 2008, and 2012.
Polling
Polls consistently showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading by a margin of two to eight points in a four-way race. The last poll published prior to the election was by SurveyMonkey and had Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Donald Trump. Clinton never visited the state during the general election campaign, while Trump visited six times. On election day, Trump ended up carrying the state by less than a point, a difference of an average of five to six points from most pre-election polling. Prior to the election, many major news networks and professional and election analysts predicted the state as either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin's unexpected swing to Trump, along with two other Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan), was the deciding factor in his win of 306–232 over Clinton, despite her garnering a plurality of the votes. Clinton referenced the loss in her memoir What Happened: "If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end. They also looked good for the Democrat running for Senate, Russ Feingold."
Results
By county
- Adams (largest city: Adams)
- Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
- Columbia (largest city: Portage)
- Crawford (largest city: Prairie du Chien)
- Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
- Dunn (largest city: Menomonie)
- Forest (largest city: Crandon)
- Grant (largest city: Platteville)
- Jackson (largest city: Black River Falls)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha)
- Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
- Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
- Marquette (largest city: Montello)
- Pepin (largest city: Durand)
- Price (largest city: Park Falls)
- Racine (largest city: Racine)
- Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
- Sauk (largest city: Baraboo)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia)
- Vernon (largest city: Viroqua)
- Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
By congressional district
Trump won six of eight congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.
Analysis
Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the first to do so in a close election since Richard Nixon in 1960. He also became the first Republican to win a majority in Iron County since 1920.
The only counties in the state to swing leftward were the three most college-educated counties in the state (see the map), namely Dane (home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison), and the WOW counties of Waukesha and Ozaukee. The other WOW county of Washington County and Milwaukee County only narrowly shifted rightward. These swings were insufficient to prevent Trump from flipping the state, but they were enough to keep the state's margin of victory under 1%.
Wisconsin weighed in for this election as 2.9% more Republican than the nation at large, the first time it voted to the right of the nation since 2000. Trump was the first Republican to win Adams, Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Jackson, Trempealeau, and Vernon counties since 1984, Grant, Sauk, and Lafayette counties since 1988, and Kenosha and Pepin counties since 1972. Wisconsin was also one of eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton but not for Hillary Clinton.
Recount
On November 25, 2016, with 90 minutes remaining on the deadline to petition for a recount to the state's electoral body, 2016 Green presidential candidate Jill Stein filed for a recount of the election results in Wisconsin. She signaled she intended to file for similar recounts in the subsequent days in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. On November 26, the Clinton campaign announced that they were joining the recount effort in Wisconsin. Trump filed a lawsuit to halt the process, but it was rejected by a federal judge. The final result of the recount confirmed Trump's victory in Wisconsin, where he gained a net 131 votes. Trump gained 837 additional votes, while Clinton gained 706 additional votes.