The 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. At that time, Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Prior to the election, Michigan was considered to be a state Clinton was favored to win. However, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This made Michigan 2.33% more Republican than the nation-at-large. The state was the last to be called by most major news networks due to the close nature and the need to count provisional and absentee ballots; most networks declared Trump the winner of Michigan's electors three weeks after Election Day. This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential elections, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all. By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.
Michigan's largest county, Wayne County, home to Detroit, voted for Clinton by 37 points. She also managed to hold on to suburban Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where residents tend to be more diverse and more white-collar, where instead third-party candidates gained votes, whilst Trump flipped the state's third largest county, Macomb County, which is home to more socially conservative but economically populist white blue-collar workers. As of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, this is the last time in which Kent County and Leelanau County voted for the Republican candidate, and the only time since 1976 that the Democratic presidential nominee won the nationwide popular vote without winning Michigan.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.
Results
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
Republican primary
Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.
Debate
Detroit, March 3
The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan. It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel. Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators. It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm. Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.
Results
Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
General election
Polling
Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%. The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%. Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.
Minor candidates
The following were given write-in status:
- Cherunda Fox
- Ben Hartnell
- Tom Hoefling
- Laurence Kotlikoff
- Evan McMullin
- Mike Maturen
- Monica Moorehead
Results
By county
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bay (largest city: Bay City)
- Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
- Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
- Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood)
- Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant)
- Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
- Macomb (largest city: Warren)
- Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
- Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
- Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)
- Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
- Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)
By congressional district
Trump won nine of 14 congressional districts.
Analysis
Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since 1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day. Trump was able to win the state for the first time since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988, albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day, Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later, an error which had been common in many sources at the 2000 election, in the states of Florida and New Mexico.
Trump was able to flip Michigan, making large gains throughout the state except for a handful of heavily college-educated counties (see the map). In particular, Washtenaw County (home to the University of Michigan), voted to the left of Wayne County (home to Detroit), despite Washtenaw County being just 11.5% Black and Wayne County being 37.3% Black. Washtenaw has continued to vote to the left of Wayne in every presidential election since 2016.
Donald Trump's upset victory highlighted Michigan's new status as a swing state, being bitterly contested in the 2020 election, when former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden narrowly flipped it back into the Democratic column, and in 2024 when Trump flipped it back into the Republican column. Trump's State Campaign was run by Scott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director), Christopher Morris (Field Director), and Tia Jurkiw[unfit] (Events Coordinator). Trump was the first Republican to win Bay, Lake, and Saginaw counties since 1984, Gogebic County since 1972, and Isabella County since 1988. Wayne County was not the most Democratic county in the state for the first time since 1984 (instead, that distinction was held by neighboring Washtenaw County), which has remained true in every election since.
Recount
The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28. The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day, Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign requested a hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives. The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5. Finally, the recount was halted on December 7 after a federal judge issued an order to Michigan's Board of Elections, thus making Trump's win official.