The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Minnesota. Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty declined to seek a third term in office. In the open race to succeed him, Mark Dayton narrowly defeated state representative Tom Emmer.
This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re-election in 1986. With a margin of 0.4% (or 8,770 votes), this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle.
Background
Republican Tim Pawlenty was elected governor of Minnesota in 2002 and re-elected in 2006. However, he announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term in office.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Bob Carney Jr., inventor
- Running mate: William McGaughey
- Leslie Davis, environmental activist
- Running mate: Gregory K. Soderberg
- Tom Emmer, state representative from Delano
- Running mate: Annette Meeks, member of the Metropolitan Council
- Ole Savior, perennial candidate, artist, poet
- Running mate: Todd "Elvis" Anderson, Elvis impersonator
Withdrew
- Patricia Anderson, former Minnesota state auditor
- Bill Haas, former state representative and former mayor of Champlin
- David Hann, state senator
- Phil Herwig, activist
- Mike Jungbauer, state senator and former mayor of East Bethel
- Paul Kohls, state representative
- Marty Seifert, state representative and former House minority leader (following defeat at state convention)
Declined
- Laura Brod, state representative
- Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator and former mayor of St. Paul
- Paul Koering, state senator
- Tim Pawlenty, incumbent governor of Minnesota since 2003
- Jim Ramstad, former U.S. representative
- Brian Sullivan, businessman
- Steve Sviggum, Minnesota commissioner of labor and industry and former speaker of the Minnesota House
- Charlie Weaver, former commissioner of Public Safety
Campaign
The open race attracted a large field of candidates. At the Republican off-year state convention in October 2009, former state representative Marty Seifert won straw poll with 37 percent of the vote, ahead of state representative Tom Emmer with 23 percent, and Patricia Anderson with 14 percent. The rest of the participating candidates received less than 10 percent each.
On February 2, 2010, at the precinct caucuses to elect delegates to the 2010 state convention, Seifert won another straw poll of caucus attendees with 50 percent of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39 percent. However, the elected delegates were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the straw poll indicated, and both campaigns claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.
Convention results
On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the state convention in Minneapolis, taking 56 percent of the vote on the second ballot. After the convention, Seifert withdrew and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.
Results
Emmer won the August 10 primary easily, earning a spot on the November ballot.
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Candidates
- Mark Dayton, former U.S. senator
- Running mate: Yvonne Prettner Solon, state senator
- Matt Entenza, former Minnesota House minority leader
- Running mate: Robyne Robinson, former television personality
- Peter Idusogie
- Running mate: Lady Jayne Fontaine
- Margaret Anderson Kelliher, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives
- Running mate: John Gunyou, Minnetonka city manager
Withdrew
- Tom Bakk, state senator(following precinct caucuses)
- Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County attorney
- Steve Kelley, former state senator (following precinct caucuses)
- John Marty, state senator and 1994 gubernatorial nominee (following first convention ballot)
- Running mate: Patricia Torres Ray, state senator
- Tom Rukavina, state representative
- R. T. Rybak, Minneapolis mayor
- Paul Thissen, state representative
Declined
- Chris Coleman, mayor of Saint Paul
- Mike Opat, chairman of the Hennepin County Board of Commissioners
Campaign
Ahead of the February 2 precinct caucuses, over more than eleven candidates submitted their names for consideration. Notably, former U.S. senator Mark Dayton declined to be included on the straw poll ballot. R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8 percent of the vote over Margaret Anderson Kelliher with 20.1 percent. "Uncommitted" received 14.7 percent, and other candidates each received single-digit support. As a result of poor showings in the caucus straw poll and slim odds of securing the party endorsement, Steve Kelley and Tom Bakk withdrew from the race.
Convention results
On April 24, the state convention was held in Duluth. John Marty withdrew after the first ballot, and Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot. Before the sixth ballot results were announced, Rybak withdrew and endorsed Kelliher. Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the party endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later, leaving a field composed of Dayton, Kelliher, and former House minority leader Matt Entenza.
All three candidates announced their running mates shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative session. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate.
Results
Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee. He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.
Independence primary
Candidates
- Rob Hahn
- Tom Horner, public affairs consultant
- Phil Ratté
- John T. Uldrich
- Rahn V. Workcuff
Withdrew
- Joe Repya, former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army
Declined
- Dean Barkley, former U.S. senator
- Peter Bell, Metropolitan Council chair
- David Olson, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce president
- Tim Penny, former U.S. representative
Convention results
On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.
Results
Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.
General election
Candidates
- Mark Dayton, former United States senator (DFL)
- Running mate: Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota state senator
- Tom Emmer, state representative from Delano (Republican)
- Running mate: Annette Meeks, member of the Metropolitan Council
- Linda Eno (Resource)
- Running mate: Howard Hanson
- Farheen Hakeem (Green)
- Running mate: Dan Dittman
- Tom Horner, public affairs consultant (Independence)
- Ken Pentel (Ecology Democracy)
- Running mate: Erin Wallace
- Chris Wright (Grassroots)
- Running mate: Edwin Engelmann
Polling
Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided. As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the election a tossup, while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86 percent chance of winning.
Graphical summary
010203040503/10/20107/29/20109/26/201010/27/2010Dayton/Prettner SolonEmmer/MeeksOther/UndecidedHorner/MulderOpinion polling for the 2010 Minnesota guber...
Results
Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8,770 votes (0.42%). The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.
Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.
Recount results
The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court. The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Clearwater (largest city: Bagley)
- Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
- Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
- Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
- Pine (largest city: Pine City)
- Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Clay (largest city: Moorhead)
- Nicollet (largest city: North Mankato)