The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. Bush, however, was re-elected to the presidency.
Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last election in which Somerset County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.
Primaries
- 2004 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day.
Polling
Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors, while Kerry raised $6,513,274.
Results
By county
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
- Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)
By congressional district
Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts.
Analysis
Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.
This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.
Electors
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.
- Warren Wallace
- Wilfredo Caraballo
- Tom Canzanella
- Carolyn Walch
- Peggy Anastos
- Bernard Kenny
- Ronald Rice
- Abed Awad
- Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
- Wendy Benchle
- Loni Kaplan
- Carolyn Wade
- Riletta L. Cream
- Bernadette McPherson
- Upendra Chivukula