The Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomatic conflict refers to the temporary struggle for regional influence between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, both of which are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It is sometimes called the New Arab Cold War or the Second Arab Cold War. Bilateral relations have been especially strained since the beginning of the Arab Spring, that left a power vacuum both states sought to fill, with Qatar being supportive of the revolutionary wave and Saudi Arabia opposing it. Both states are allies of the United States, and have avoided direct conflict with one another.
Qatar has differences with the Saudi bloc on a number of issues: it broadcasts Al Jazeera, that widely reported the Arab Spring; it maintains relatively good relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia's key rival; and it has supported the Muslim Brotherhood in the past. Saudi Arabia frames the conflict with Qatar as a subset of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict due to Saudi Arabia's longstanding concern about the country's relationship with Iran and Iranian-backed militant groups. However, Qatar maintains the conflict is an attempt for Saudi Arabia to reassert the hegemony over Qatar it enjoyed during the 20th century.
The Tunisian Revolution of January 2011 ousted longtime president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled to Saudi Arabia after being denied asylum in France. Widespread Al Jazeera coverage of the 2011 Bahraini uprising fueled Saudi suspicions the Qatari government sought to overthrow the Saudi government via soft power. The Saudis then supported a largely successful counterrevolution to the Arab Spring to preserve the monarchy of Bahrain, overthrow the Egyptian democratically elected president Mohammad Morsi, and stymie international support for the post-Gaddafi government in Libya. Since the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, there has been a consistent pattern of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt opposing the designs of Qatar and Turkey, who supported democratic Islamist and Salafi extremist groups, particularly in the Syrian civil war.
Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar mediated through the GCC during the Yemeni Revolution against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, although Qatar was considered more pro-revolution and KSA more pro-Saleh. Both rivals also backed the overthrow of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Qatari involvement in the Syrian Civil War was initially far greater in 2013 than Saudi involvement, and their backing of rival revolutionary groups benefited the incumbent Assad regime and what would become the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. In 2014, the two countries backed rival sides in the Second Libyan Civil War, which continues to intensify, and they had even temporarily severed diplomatic relations with each other. When Salman of Saudi Arabia ascended to the throne in 2015, the two began to cooperate more in Syria and fought Houthi militias in the Yemeni civil war. Saudi-Qatari relations were seen near a high point when Qatar severed ties with Iran by recalling its ambassador from Tehran in response to the attack on the Saudi embassy there following the 2016 Saudi execution of Nimr al-Nimr.
In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, the Maldives, Mauritania, Senegal, Djibouti, the Comoros, Jordan, the Tobruk-based Libyan government and finally the Hadi-led Yemeni government severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and blocked Qatar's airspace and sea routes along with Saudi Arabia blocking the only land crossing over its relations with Iran, Al-Jazeera reporting negative information about other GCC states and Egypt and the country's alleged support of Islamist groups. Qatar was also expelled from the anti-Houthi coalition. Qatar's defense minister Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah called the blockade akin to a bloodless declaration of war, and Qatar's finance minister Ali Sharif Al Emadi stated that Qatar is rich enough to withstand the blockade. On 24 August 2017, Qatar announced that they would restore full diplomatic relations with Iran. As the diplomatic standoff reached its second year, Saudi Arabia announced it would build a canal. Subsequently, this could turn Qatar into an island.
As of June 2024 Saudi Arabia has welcomed the resumption of diplomatic representation between the UAE and Qatar, reflecting continued efforts to stabilize and enhance inter-GCC relations.
Background
History
Since he took power in 1995, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani believed Qatar could find security only by transforming itself from a Saudi appendage to a rival of Saudi Arabia. According to Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, "Qatar used to be a kind of Saudi vassal state, but it used the autonomy that its gas wealth created to carve out an independent role for itself... Above all, gas prompted Qatar to promote a regional policy of engagement with Shiite Iran to secure the source of its wealth". Qatar and Iran share ownership of the South Pars/North Dome Gas-Condensate field, by far the world's largest natural gas field, with significant geostrategic influence. To further offset Saudi influence, Qatar is a close ally of the United States, hosting the largest American base in the Middle East, Al Udeid Air Base. Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador to Doha from 2002 to 2008 to try to pressure Qatar to curb its individualistic tendencies. This approach broadly failed.
Qatar maintains relatively good relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia often frames the issue as a proxy battle between partners and adversaries of Iran. United Arab Emirates politicians claim that "Qatar invests billions of dollars in the U.S. and Europe and then recycles the profits to support Iranian-aligned Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and groups linked to al Qaeda. While Qatar hosts the American military base from which the U.S. directs its regional war against extremism, it also owns media networks responsible for inciting many of the same extremists". Qatar also used its contacts to help negotiate peaceful exchanges of hostages for the safe evacuation of civilians from areas affected by the Syrian Civil War. In 2006, Qatar was the only UN Security Council member to vote against United Nations Security Council Resolution 1696 that called on Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment program.
In April 2017, after a 12-year freeze, Qatar lifted a self-imposed ban on developing the gas field with Iran, that would require cooperation between the two countries. According to David Roberts, a Qatar foreign policy expert at King's College, London, if a conflict erupts between America and Iran, Qatar would literally be caught in the middle. "If you are Qatar, you look across the water and you think, when Iran did have the opportunity to take a few Arab islands, they did it." "Qatar needs to have the ability to peacefully go about their business of sucking all the gas out of that giant field." Iran could make that process very difficult. A senior fellow of Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations concludes that "There's a recognition of the general tendencies of the Gulf states to hedge their bets,"There's always a question in the back of the minds of the leadership--how much faith can they put in the U.S.?"
On 27 May 2017, the newly reelected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani held a phone call with Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Rouhani told Qatar's emir, "The countries of the region need more cooperation and consultations to resolve the crisis in the region and we are ready to cooperate in this field."
Arab Spring and Al Jazeera
The Qatari Al-Jazeera is a media organization owned by the Government of Qatar. It is the most popular network in the Middle East, and its news network has criticized principal foreign governments involved in triggering the dispute and been accused of supporting Qatari interests. The Saudi-led coalition against Qatar has demanded that Al-Jazeera be shut down.
Terrorism
Qatar has been accused of sponsoring terrorism. Some countries have faulted Qatar for funding rebel groups in Syria, including al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, the al-Nusra Front, although the Saudis have done the same. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been involved in the CIA–led Timber Sycamore covert operation to train and arm Syrian rebels.
Qatar has hosted officials from the Afghan Taliban and Hamas. Qatar defends this move by saying it is trying to act as an intermediary in regional conflicts by hosting talks between the Taliban and the US-backed Afghan government in 2016.
On 13 July 2017, Bob Corker, a Republican senator and the chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, stated that the "[t]he amount of support for terrorism by Saudi Arabia dwarfs what Qatar is doing". Former US Defense Secretary and ex-CIA chief Robert Gates stated in May 2017 that he does not "know instances in which Qatar aggressively goes after (terror finance) networks of Hamas, Taliban, Al-Qaeda," and that "My attitudes toward Al-Udeid and any other facility is that the United States military doesn't have any irreplaceable facility." Qatar hosts the largest American base in the Middle East, the Al Udeid Air Base, which has been used by the United States in its campaigns in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. According to the WSJ, during President Barack Obama's first term, some members of his National Security Council lobbied to pull a U.S. fighter jet squadron out of Al Udeid to protest Qatari support of militant groups in the Middle East.
Timeline
2002–2008
In 2002, Saudi Arabia removed their ambassador from Qatar over Al Jazeera's alleged critical stance towards Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic relations were re-established in 2008, after assurances that Al Jazeera would limit its coverage of Saudi Arabia.
2014
During a March 2014 meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council, after which the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain announced the recall of their ambassadors to Qatar, citing interference with their internal affairs. The situation was eventually defused after Qatar forced Brotherhood members to leave the country eight months later.
Some economists have interpreted the 2014 Saudi–Qatari rift as the tangible political sign of a growing economic rivalry between oil and natural gas producers, which could "have deep and long-lasting consequences" beyond the Middle East-North Africa area.
2017–2018: Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomatic crisis
In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Maldives, Mauritania, Mauritius, Sudan, Senegal, Djibouti, Comoros, Jordan, the Tobruk-based Libyan government and the Hadi-led Yemeni government severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and blocked Qatar's airspace and sea routes along with Saudi Arabia blocking the only land crossing over its relations with Iran, Al-Jazeera reporting negative information about other GCC states and Egypt and the country's alleged support of Islamist groups. Qatar was also expelled from the anti-Houthi coalition. Qatar's defense minister Khalid bin Mohammed Al Attiyah called the blockade akin to a bloodless declaration of war and Qatar's finance minister Ali Sharif Al Emadi stated that Qatar is rich enough to withstand the blockade.
The Saudi coalition withdrawing diplomatic relations accuse Qatar of supporting terrorism, of interfering with their internal affairs and of maintaining relations with Iran. Qatar denies allegations that it supported terrorism, and pointed out that it has been contributing to the U.S.-led fight against ISIL. The countries have also stressed the measures are in response to Qatar's violation of an agreement in 2014 to not undermine the "interests, security and stability" of other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
The diplomatic crisis came after a speech in May given by Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in which he was alleged to have declared support for Iran, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood, along with calling Iran an "Islamic power" and criticizing Donald Trump's hostile stance toward it. Qatar denied the allegations and claimed that hackers had posted fabricated statements on the state-run Qatar News Agency's website. US investigators believe the news agency was breached by Russian hackers as part of an ongoing fake news campaign designed to cause diplomatic rifts among the United States and its allies in the region. The Kremlin denied involvement, and the government of Qatar claimed the hack instead originated in the boycotting Gulf states not Russia after tracking suspicious cellphone signals. Qatar is planning to sue countries involved in the blockade. The sudden economic isolation forced Qatar to turn to Turkey and Iran for food and water supplies. Iran offered to use three of its ports for delivering supplies to Qatar.
Arab media claimed that Qatar has secretly accepted to become part of an Iranian Shia sphere of influence that Tehran is trying to create in the Middle East, and which would include Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Assad), and Iraq (Shia-majority government) and that, in a phone conversation with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Emir Al Thani said he wanted the ties with Iran to be "stronger than ever before." Qatar claims Iranian-backed Hezbollah is a resistance movement against Israeli occupation, not a terrorist group. Arab media also claimed that a member of Qatar's ruling House of Thani, Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Abdullah Al Ahmed Al Thani, tweeted that Qatar's ruler Tamim has "joined forces with Iran against your brothers and set up terrorist groups and published electronic battalions to beat your opponents." Saudi media also alleged that Iran Revolutionary Guards are protecting Qatar's ruler Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani inside his palace.
The Saudi-led bloc of states issued prerequisites to be met by Qatar before restoring diplomatic relations and lifting the blockade. The thirteen demands stipulated that the country must cut relations, military, and intelligence cooperation with Iran, comply with the US and international trade sanctions on Iran, immediately shut down a Turkish military base, and halt military cooperation with Turkey. It was also demanded that Qatar cut any existing ties with all "terrorist, sectarian and ideological organizations" such as ISIL, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front, and Hezbollah, and must concur with any group's addition to the list of terrorist organizations as defined by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt. Other demands were more punitive, requiring reparations and compensation for loss of life and other financial losses caused by Qatar's policies in recent years, the closure of state-funded media outlets like Al Jazeera, Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Mekameleen, and the Middle East Eye.
The bloc sought a guarantee that Qatar will in the future align in all matters with other Gulf states, discuss all its decisions with them, and provide regular reports on its activity (monthly for the first year, quarterly for the second and annual for the following ten years). They also demanded deportation of all political refugees who live in Qatar to their countries of origin, freezing their assets, providing any desired information about their residency, movements and finances, revoking their Qatari citizenship if naturalized, and forbade Qatar from granting citizenship to any more fugitives.
Upon rejection of demands by Qatar, the countries involved announced that the blockade would remain in place until Qatar changes its policies.
2021: Gulf Reconciliation
On 5 January 2021, the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited the city of Al-Ula in Saudi Arabia for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit. Saudi, along with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, signed an agreement to restore full diplomatic relations with Qatar, and to end the three and a half years of blockade. The resolution was brokered by Kuwait and the US.
Initially, only Saudi agreed to reopen its airspace and maritime borders with Qatar, commencing the process of reconciliation. However, the UAE joined in later and announced to open all of its land, sea and air borders, allowing travel and trade with Qatar.
On 16 January 2021, the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Faisal bin Farhan announced that his country will be re-opening their embassy in Qatar, as part of the Al-Ula deal of reconciliation.