Myanmar has been in armed conflict since 1948, when the country, then known as Burma, gained independence from the United Kingdom. The conflict has largely been ethnic-based, with ethnic armed organisations fighting Myanmar's armed forces, the Tatmadaw, for self-determination. Despite numerous ceasefires and the creation of autonomous self-administered zones in 2008, armed groups continue to call for independence, increased autonomy, democracy, or the federalisation of Myanmar. It is the world's longest-running civil war.
In 1940, during World War II, Burmese intellectuals formed the Thirty Comrades, who established the Burma Independence Army (BIA) to fight against the Allies. Aung San led the Axis-puppet State of Burma before switching sides to the Allies in mid-1944. Post-war negotiations led to Burma's independence in 1948, but ethnic tensions arose after the Burmese government refused to honour the 1947 Panglong Agreement, which promised autonomy for some of the country's ethnic minorities. In the immediate post-independence period, the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) and the Karen National Union (KNU) emerged as major rebel forces.
In 1962, Burmese general Ne Win led a military coup, establishing a junta and refusing to adopt a federal system of governance, which led to intensified insurgencies. Ne Win's regime faced internal dissent and growing civil conflict throughout his rule, culminating in the 8888 Uprising in 1988, which was violently suppressed by the military. Following the uprising, the military established the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), later renamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
Civilian rule was restored in 2011, albeit not fully, with the military retaining power in the country's legislature through a new constitution. A military coup in 2021 by commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing deposed the civilian government, sparking widespread protests and escalating insurgencies.
Prelude
In 1940, during World War II, a group of young Burmese intellectuals left for Japan to receive military training in preparation for an anti-colonial struggle against the British. This group came to be known as the Thirty Comrades, and upon returning to Burma in 1941, they established the Burma Independence Army (BIA) to fight against the Allies. Upon their capture of Rangoon in 1942, the Japanese established a puppet state, the State of Burma, and reorganised the BIA as its armed forces, the Burma National Army (BNA). Aung San, the leader of the State of Burma and one of the Thirty Comrades, became increasingly sceptical of Japan's ability to win the war as time progressed, and in mid-1944 he decided to switch sides. Japanese forces capitulated by July 1945, and the British began to negotiate Burma's independence with Aung San and other prominent Burmese leaders.
In the lead up to Burmese independence, Aung San negotiated with Chin, Kachin, and Shan leaders, and the Panglong Agreement was reached between them. The agreement promised full autonomy for the areas inhabited by the three ethnic minorities, with an option to secede from Burma ten years after independence. However, Aung San was assassinated shortly afterwards, and the Panglong Agreement was not honoured by the post-independence government under U Nu. This further strained relations between the Bamar ethnic majority and the country's many ethnic minorities.
Course of the conflict
Post-independence insurgencies (1948–1962)
Following Burma's independence from the United Kingdom on 4 January 1948, the two largest opposition groups in the country were the communists, led by the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), and the Karen nationalists, led by the Karen National Union (KNU).
Initially there was calm during the transitional period after independence, but on 2 April 1948, the CPB fired the first shots of the conflict in Paukkongyi, Pegu Region (present-day Bago Region). At its peak, the CPB had 15,000 fighters in 1949.
During the post-independence period, the KNU favoured an independent state, governed by the Karen people. The proposed state would have encompassed the territories of Karen State and Karenni State (present-day Kayin State and Kayah State), in Lower Burma (Outer Myanmar). The KNU later shifted its focus from full independence to regional autonomy, under a federal system with fair Karen representation in the government.
Ne Win's dictatorship (1962–1988)
After three successive parliamentary governments governed Myanmar, the Tatmadaw, led by General Ne Win, staged a coup d'état on 2 March 1962, which ousted the parliamentary government and replaced it with a military junta. Accusations of severe human rights abuses and violations followed, and the cabinet of the parliamentary government and political leaders of ethnic minority groups were arrested and detained without trial. Around this period, other ethnic minority groups began forming larger rebel factions, such as the Kachin Independence Army, in response to the new government's refusal to adopt a federal system.
Many insurgent groups, communist and ethnonationalist alike, became increasingly receptive to the Maoist concept of a "people's war" after failed peace talks with Ne Win's government in 1963. The CPB maintained close relations with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and replicated China's Cultural Revolution. The CPB's imitation of their Chinese allies was perceived by many Burmese as an attempt by China to intrude into Burmese affairs, a sentiment which led to the violent 1967 anti-Chinese riots in Burma. By the time the riots were quelled, 31 Chinese civilians had been killed and several Chinese-owned businesses had been burned down.
Both immediately after the coup and again in 1972, Ne Win held peace talks with several insurgent groups, but both times they fell apart. This was partly due to Ne Win's refusal to adopt a federal multi-party system. After negotiations failed, defectors from the Tatmadaw and ethnic insurgents walked back to their bases, with headlines across Myanmar famously reading "They have gone back" (သူတို့ပြန်ကြလေပြီ). Private property was confiscated by the government, and the Burmese Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) was founded in 1974 to govern the country under a one-party system. Under Ne Win's 26-year dictatorship, Myanmar became an isolated hermit kingdom and one of the least developed countries in the world. In 1988, nationwide student protests resulted in the BSPP and Ne Win being ousted and replaced with a new military regime, the State Peace and Development Council.
8888 Uprising
On 12 March 1988, students began demonstrating in Rangoon (present-day Yangon) against the totalitarian rule of Ne Win and his Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP). The protests quickly spread across the country, and the BSPP government was eventually pressured into adopting a multi-party system. However, the BSPP government was overthrown in a military coup d'état on 18 September 1988. The military then established the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and violently cracked down on protesters, ending all demonstrations by 21 September 1988.
Authorities in Myanmar claimed that around 350 people were killed, while opposition groups claimed thousands died in the protests at the hands of the military. According to The Economist, over 3,000 people were killed in the demonstrations. Despite its violent suppression of the 8888 Uprising, the new military junta agreed to ceasefire agreements with certain insurgent groups after the demonstrations ceased.
Aung San Suu Kyi emerged from the 8888 Uprising as a symbol of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, leading the country's largest opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). The military junta arranged a general election in 1990 to elect members of a parliament-sized constitutional committee which would draft a new constitution. The NLD won a supermajority of the seats, but the military junta, surprised by the outcome, refused to recognise the results and placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.
SLORC / SPDC junta (1988–2011)
After voiding the results of the 1990 election, the military junta consolidated its rule over Myanmar. The SLORC was abolished in 1997 and replaced with the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), which consisted of eleven senior military officers.
In the 1990s, the Tatmadaw severely weakened ethnic insurgent groups, destroying most of their bases and strongholds.
In 2006, the Tatmadaw launched a large-scale military offensive against the KNU's armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). The clashes resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians in Kayin State. According to one estimate, approximately half a million people were displaced due to fighting between government forces and the KNU, and the forcible relocation of villages by the government.
In 2007, hundreds of thousands of monks protested against the military junta's rule, and called for free elections, minority rights and the release of political prisoners in an event now known as the Saffron Revolution. The protest originally began in response to the government's removal of price subsidies for compressed natural gas.
The Tatmadaw attacked Kokang in 2009, causing the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army to lose control of the area and forcing 30,000 refugees to flee to neighbouring Yunnan, China.
In 2010, Tatmadaw forces clashed violently with DKBA-5, resulting in nearly 10,000 refugees fleeing to Thailand to escape the violent conflict.
Civilian government (2011–2021)
The government introduced a new constitution in 2008 and instigated a period of political reforms from 2011 to 2015, with thousands of political prisoners being released, including Aung San Suu Kyi. The 2008 constitution created five self-administered zones and one self-administered division for six ethnic minority groups. In November 2014, the NLD attempted to make amendments to the constitution, in response to a clause that made Aung San Suu Kyi ineligible to become President of Myanmar if her party won an election. These amendments, however, were rejected.
In 2013, large anti-Muslim riots flared up in various cities across Myanmar. The violence coincided with the rise of the Buddhist nationalist 969 Movement, led by Sayadaw U Wirathu.
In early 2015, the Burmese government invited 15 insurgent groups to negotiate a "Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement". The draft was agreed upon by a majority of the invited parties on 31 March 2015, and the agreement was signed by Burmese president Thein Sein and the leaders of eight insurgent groups on 15 October 2015.
In Shan State, the military continued to engage the MNDAA during the 2015 Kokang offensive.
After the end of political reforms in 2015, the government began hosting a number of peace conferences, including the Union Peace Conference – 21st Century Panglong. The first session of the conference was held in 2016, with three follow-up sessions held in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The conference was criticised by opposition groups, including some attendees, for not addressing the main proposals made by ceasefire groups, and for excluding the country's largest insurgent groups which remained actively hostile. Critics further argued that Myanmar's constitution granted too much power to the military, and was preventing the country from achieving peace and meaningful democratic reforms.
On 9 October 2016, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) launched its first attack on Burmese border posts along the Bangladesh–Myanmar border, killing nine border officers. This prompted the Tatmadaw to begin massive "clearance operations" in northern Rakhine State, which intensified following a second large-scale attack by ARSA on 25 August 2017. The subsequent violence has sparked international outcry and was described as an ethnic cleansing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
In late November 2016, the Northern Alliance—which consists of four insurgent groups, the Arakan Army (AA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—attacked towns and border posts along the China–Myanmar border in Muse Township, northern Shan State. The insurgents captured the town of Mong Ko on 25 November 2016 and maintained control of it until they withdrew from the town on 4 December 2016 to avoid civilian casualties from airstrikes by the Myanmar Air Force.
On 15 August 2019, Northern Alliance insurgents attacked a military college in Nawnghkio Township, killing 15. Further clashes occurred in the following days, with Myanmar's military warning there could be a "full-scale war" in Shan State if the Northern Alliance did not halt their attacks.
SAC junta (2021–present)
On the early morning of 1 February 2021, the civilian government led by the NLD was overthrown in a military coup d'état, and the Tatmadaw's commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, became the head of state. Aung San Suu Kyi and several other senior members of her government were arrested by the military during the coup. Mass protests followed, with demonstrators demanding the resignation of Min Aung Hlaing and the newly created State Administration Council (SAC), the release of those arrested in the coup, and the restoration of the civilian government.
Anti-coup protesters have armed themselves with slingshots, molotov cocktails, and makeshift shields. In late March 2021, it was reported that dozens of protesters had travelled to Myanmar's border areas to train under one of the country's many insurgent groups, elevating the risk of a countrywide civil war. The civilian government-in-exile, the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), has proposed the formation of a "federal armed force" to combat the military.