Following the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, states in the vicinity of the conflict reported numerous violations of their airspace, particularly NATO member states that Russia had designated as "unfriendly states" because of their political, military and economic support for Ukraine. While most violations were attributed to Russian (or Belarusian) military equipment such as UAVs and aircraft, Ukrainian equipment was also responsible on several occasions, most notably in the 2022 Przewodów explosion, in which two Polish civilians were killed by a stray Ukrainian rocket that hit a farm in Przewodów, eight kilometres into Poland and NATO territory.
The incidents involved a wide range of military equipment, including cruise or ballistic missiles, drones, helicopters and military airplanes. While many violations were assessed as accidental, resulting from electronic warfare or navigation errors, several defense analysts and military experts suggested that some incursions may have been deliberate, in order to provoke NATO or increase political and military pressure on member states supporting Ukraine. No conclusive evidence has emerged in this sense, although the possibility has been discussed.
Frequency and reactions
A significant number of the violations occurred in sparsely populated regions. Hotspots include Romania's Danube Delta, where the proximity of Ukrainian ports targeted by Russian strikes often resulted in drone- or missile wreckage crossing the border, and the heavily forested borders of Poland and the Baltic states with Belarus and Russia. In several cases, wreckage was accidentally discovered only days or weeks later by civilians or border patrols.
Romania has experienced the highest number of reported incidents since 2023, with at least 70 violations involving both Russian and Ukrainian military equipment. The incidents ranged from repeated discovery of drone fragments to complete drone crashes and explosions near or in inhabited areas. The most serious was the crash of a Russian drone into an apartment building in Galați, the eighth largest city of Romania, which injured two civilians and caused significant material damage. Similar incidents have occurred in other neighboring states, including the aforementioned November 2022 missile explosion in Poland and the March 2022 crash of a military drone in Zagreb, which crossed the airspace of Romania and Hungary before crashing in the Croatian capital.
The violations prompted governments of the affected countries repeatedly condemned the incidents and called on Russia to respect international borders, while also prompted NATO to expand its air policing and integrated air and missile defense activities in Eastern Europe. Although most violations did not result in casualties or material damage, they highlighted the risks posed by military operations conducted in close proximity to NATO territory and raised concerns about the potential for accidental escalation between Russia and the bloc.