Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston was an extremely powerful, long-lived, erratic, and destructive tropical cyclone that became the most intense in the Southern Hemisphere on record, as well as the strongest to make landfall on record, and the most intense and longest lasting tropical cyclone worldwide in 2016. Winston was, at the time, the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the South Pacific basin, until it was surpassed by Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023. The system was first noted as a tropical disturbance on 7 February 2016, when it was located to the northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Over the next few days, the system gradually developed as it moved southeast, acquiring gale-force winds by 11 February. The following day, it underwent rapid intensification and attained ten-minute maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (109 mph). Less favourable environmental conditions prompted weakening thereafter. After turning northeast on 14 February, Winston stalled to the north of Tonga on 17 February. Due to a change in higher level steering, the storm drifted back to the west. In the process, Winston again rapidly intensified, reaching Category 5 intensity on both the Australian tropical cyclone scale and the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale on 19 February. The storm passed directly over Vanua Balavu, where a national record wind gust of 306 km/h (190 mph) was observed.
The cyclone reached its peak intensity on 20 February, with ten-minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (170 mph) and a pressure of 884 hPa (mbar; 26.10 inHg), shortly before making landfall on Viti Levu, Fiji. Thereafter, the storm slowly weakened within a less favourable environment; the system turned southeast during this time, though remained well away from Fiji. It later degenerated into a remnant low, with some subtropical characteristics, on 24 February as it turned to the west and later northwest. The system persisted for more than a week over the Coral Sea before ultimately moving over Queensland, Australia and dissipating on 3 March, 26 days after being classified a tropical disturbance.
In advance of the storm's arrival in Fiji, numerous shelters were opened, and a nationwide curfew was instituted during the evening of 20 February. Striking Fiji at Category 5 intensity on 20 February, Winston inflicted extensive damage on many islands and killed 44 people. Communications were temporarily lost with at least six islands, with some remaining isolated more than two days after the storm's passage. A total of 40,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and approximately 350,000 people—roughly 40 percent of Fiji's population—were significantly impacted by the storm. Total damage from Winston amounted to FJ$2.98 billion (US$1.4 billion). The nation's government declared a state of emergency on 20 February, which remained in place for 60 days. Immediately following the cyclone, the governments of Australia and New Zealand provided logistical support and relief packages. In the following weeks, a coalition of international support, including intergovernmental agencies, brought tens of millions of dollars in aid and hundreds of tons of supplies to residents in Fiji.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston was an extremely powerful, long-lived, erratic, and destructive tropical cyclone that made a catastrophic landfall in Fiji in late February 2016. Winston became the most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere on record, with a central pressure of 884 mbar (26.10 inHg). It is also the strongest to make landfall on record worldwide in terms of ten-minute maximum sustained winds and central pressure. At the time, Winston was the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the South Pacific basin, until it was surpassed by Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023. The fourth named storm and third severe tropical cyclone of the 2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season, Winston was the most intense and longest lasting tropical cyclone worldwide in 2016.
The system was first noted as a tropical disturbance on 7 February 2016, when it was located to the northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Over the next few days, the system gradually developed as it moved southeast, acquiring gale-force winds by 11 February. The following day, it underwent rapid intensification and attained ten-minute maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (109 mph). Less favourable environmental conditions prompted weakening thereafter. After turning northeast on 14 February, Winston stalled to the north of Tonga on 17 February. Due to a change in higher level steering, the storm drifted back to the west. In the process, Winston again rapidly intensified, reaching Category 5 intensity on both the Australian tropical cyclone scale and the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale on 19 February. The storm passed directly over Vanua Balavu, where a national record wind gust of 306 km/h (190 mph) was observed.
The cyclone reached its peak intensity on 20 February, with ten-minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (170 mph) and a pressure of 884 hPa (mbar; 26.10 inHg), shortly before making landfall on Viti Levu, Fiji. Thereafter, the storm slowly weakened within a less favourable environment; the system turned southeast during this time, though remained well away from Fiji. It later degenerated into a remnant low, with some subtropical characteristics, on 24 February as it turned to the west and later northwest. The system persisted for more than a week over the Coral Sea before ultimately moving over Queensland, Australia and dissipating on 3 March, 26 days after being classified a tropical disturbance.
In advance of the storm's arrival in Fiji, numerous shelters were opened, and a nationwide curfew was instituted during the evening of 20 February. Striking Fiji at Category 5 intensity on 20 February, Winston inflicted extensive damage on many islands and killed 44 people. Communications were temporarily lost with at least six islands, with some remaining isolated more than two days after the storm's passage. A total of 40,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and approximately 350,000 people—roughly 40 percent of Fiji's population—were significantly impacted by the storm. Total damage from Winston amounted to FJ$2.98 billion (US$1.4 billion). The nation's government declared a state of emergency on 20 February, which remained in place for 60 days. Immediately following the cyclone, the governments of Australia and New Zealand provided logistical support and relief packages. In the following weeks, a coalition of international support, including intergovernmental agencies, brought tens of millions of dollars in aid and hundreds of tons of supplies to residents in Fiji.
Background
Though frequented by tropical cyclones in general, the main islands of Fiji—Viti Levu and Vanua Levu—are seldom impacted by intense storms like Winston. Before Winston, the strongest storm to affect the main islands since records began in 1941 was Evan in December 2012, which skirted the western coast of Viti Levu as a Category 4 system on both the Australian scale and the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Also before Winston, the strongest storm to make landfall on either Viti Levu or Vanua Levu was Nigel in 1985, with ten-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (95 mph) and one-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), Category 3 on both scales. Winston is the deadliest storm to affect the nation of Fiji since Cyclone Meli in 1979, which claimed 53 lives.
The relative lack of strong tropical cyclones affecting the capital city of Suva, located along the southeastern coast of Viti Levu, led to complacency among residents. Many assume that strong storms are confined to northern and western areas. With Winston approaching Fiji from the east and directly threatening Suva as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone, Angela Fritz of The Washington Post called the storm a worst-case scenario.
Meteorological history
On 7 February 2016, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) started to monitor Tropical Disturbance 09F, which had developed about 1,000 km (620 mi) northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Over the next few days the system moved southeast and gradually developed further within a favourable environment. On 10 February, the United States-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 11P, while it was located about 860 km (535 mi) to the west-northwest of Suva, Fiji. The FMS upgraded it to Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone scale and assigned it the nameWinston early on 11 February; at this time the storm was situated roughly 820 km (510 mi) west-northwest of Suva, Fiji. Embedded within a northwesterly deep layer mean flow, the system tracked southeast. Around 12:00 UTC on the same day, Winston intensified into a Category 2 tropical cyclone, as a small, well-defined eye developed within deepening convection.
Situated within a favorable environment for development—featuring sea surface temperatures of 30 to 31 °C (86 to 88 °F), robust upper-level outflow, and light to moderate wind shear—Winston rapidly intensified on 12 February, becoming a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone by 06:00 UTC, and then a Category 4 cyclone only six hours later. The system presented a well-defined eye enveloped by deep convection, and it reached its initial peak intensity at 18:00 UTC, with ten-minute maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (109 mph) and the JTWC estimated one-minute maximum sustained winds at 215 km/h (134 mph), classifying it as a Category 4-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Soon thereafter, increasing wind shear prompted weakening; convection waned and became increasingly ragged in appearance. On 14 February, Winston turned to the northeast as a subtropical ridge positioned itself to the north.
Persistent wind shear displaced convection from the center of Winston, leaving its circulation partially exposed. As a result, the system degraded below severe tropical cyclone status by 00:00 UTC on 15 February. Conditions became more favourable for development on 16 February when shear relaxed over the cyclone. A prominent banding feature wrapped into the circulation that day, marking the start of reintensification. An eye reformed later that day within increasing convection, and Winston regained severe tropical cyclone intensity by 18:00 UTC. The storm's core became increasingly compact and defined as it strengthened, and a central dense overcast became established on 17 February. Later that day, Winston entered a region of weak steering currents and the storm became nearly stationary. The storm's eye became more readily apparent late on 17 February, as it doubled back to the west.
A strengthening ridge to the south propelled Winston west by 18 February, directing the intensifying cyclone at Fiji. The storm's eye grew in size that day, and upper-level outflow became more defined. Winston's overall structure became increasingly symmetric, and the system acquired traits of an annular tropical cyclone. Another period of rapid intensification took place on 19 February as the storm's 27 km (17 mi) wide eye became surrounded by intense convection. Winston acquired Category 5 status—the highest level on the Australian intensity scale—by 06:00 UTC, with ten-minute sustained winds reaching 205 km/h (127 mph). Fueled by nearly perfect conditions for intensification, Winston deepened further and the JTWC estimated it to have acquired one-minute sustained winds of 270 km/h (170 mph) by 18:00 UTC, classifying it as a Category 5-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Around this time, the cyclone passed directly over the small island of Vanua Balavu. There, a weather station recorded sustained winds of 233 km/h (145 mph) and a gust of 306 km/h (190 mph) before being destroyed; both values constitute a national record for Fiji.
Passing just south of Vanua Levu, Winston achieved its record intensity early on 20 February with ten-minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (170 mph) and a pressure of 884 hPa (mbar; 26.10 inHg). It was operationally estimated with ten-minute sustained winds of 230 km/h (140 mph) and a pressure of 915 hPa (mbar; 27.02 inHg). The JTWC estimated Winston with one-minute sustained winds of 285 km/h (177 mph). At peak intensity, it revealed a fairly symmetric convective structure with a 25 km (16 mi) round eye, under low vertical wind shear easily offset by strong divergence aloft; moreover, sea surface temperatures remained warm, near 28 °C (82 °F). Winston soon made landfall in the Rakiraki District on Viti Levu at peak intensity, making it the only known Category 5 storm, on both the Australian tropical cyclone scale and the Saffir-Simpson scale, to directly impact Fiji, and therefore the most intense storm on record to strike the nation. It also marked the strongest landfall by any cyclone in the South Pacific basin, and one of the strongest landfalls worldwide. Despite deteriorating slightly while crossing the northern portion of Viti Levu, Winston remained well-organised, reforming a ragged and cloud-filled eye after re-emerging into open waters.
Still under favorable conditions, Winston maintained intensity until early on 21 February, when upwelling of cooler waters beneath the decelerating cyclone caused it to weaken into a Category 4 cyclone. On 22 February, Winston sharply recurved south-southeastwards as the primary steering mechanism shifted from a ridge retrograding westwards to a ridge building to the east; moreover, dry air hindered reintensification. Very strong vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures resulted in steady weakening, and Winston dropped below severe tropical cyclone intensity on 23 February. Later, the low-level circulation center became fully exposed with shallow convection sheared to the south. As the system weakened, the relatively shallow subtropical ridge began to steer it southwestwards. Late on 24 February, when Winston entered TCWC Wellington's area of responsibility, the JTWC issued the final warning and indicated subtropical characteristics, citing the weakening mid-level warm core and the expanding wind field.
MetService claimed that Winston transitioned into an extratropical cyclone southeast of New Caledonia with gale-force winds at 00:00 UTC on 25 February, yet the JTWC continued to classify Winston as a subtropical system. On 26 February, beneath an upper-level low which produced subsidence aloft and high vertical wind shear, Winston revealed a strong low-level warm core and a weak upper-level cold core. The post-tropical cyclone moved into the Australian region basin in the afternoon, where it began to weaken once again. Although Winston began to move northwestwards and track over warmer sea surface temperature since 27 February, unfavourable upper-level conditions as well as dry air prevented reintensification. The system continued to track off the coast of Queensland, Australia as a weak and shallow system. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that Winston had eventually transitioned into a tropical low and made landfall over the coast north of Cairns, at 1200 UTC on 3 March, locally at night. Winston soon degenerated into a trough over land.
Impact
Effects in Fiji
On 14 February, the FMS began issuing tropical cyclone warnings for the southern Lau Islands of Fiji. These gradually expanded in coverage through 15 February, but were discontinued on 16 February, as Winston moved away from the nation. Warnings were resumed on 18 February, after Winston doubled back toward Fiji, and were issued for the northern and eastern islands. Most of the northern islands in the storm's immediate path were placed under hurricane warnings on 19 February. All shelters across the Southern Lau Islands, Koro Island, and Taveuni were opened on 19 February; more than 700 shelters opened across the entirety of Fiji. The Republic of Fiji Military Forces were placed on standby for relief efforts. A state of emergency was declared during the afternoon of 20 February, and remained in place until 20 April. A nationwide curfew was enacted starting at 6:00 p.m. local time. Public transportation was suspended across Viti Levu, and the Fiji Roads Authority strongly advised residents to avoid travel unless necessary. Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama called the storm "an ordeal of the most grievous kind".
Striking the nation on 20 February, Winston brought widespread damage to numerous islands. Approximately 80 percent of the nation's 900,000 people lost power, including the entirety of Vanua Levu, as hurricane-force winds downed trees and power lines. Communications with Vanua Balavu, Lakeba, Cicia, Nayau, Taveuni, and Qamea were lost on 20 February. Contact with Vanua Balavu had yet to be established as of the evening of 22 February. Landline telephone service was lost on Matuku Island. A total of 44 people were killed across the nation: 21 in the Western Division, 15 in the Eastern Division, 6 in the Central Division, and 2 in the Northern Division. An additional 126 were injured. An estimated 350,000 people—the nation's total population was 837,721 as of the 2007 census—were affected by the storm.
Fiji's Eastern Division was the first to be struck by Winston, with many islands sustaining catastrophic damage. Entire communities were destroyed and approximately 40,000 people required immediate assistance. Koro Island sustained severe damage, with schools destroyed and many structures losing their roofs. Kade Village was leveled, with nearly all structures destroyed. One individual died in Nabasovi when his home collapsed, and twelve people were injured in Nabuna. Another woman on the island later died in the hospital from injuries she sustained. A total of 788 homes were destroyed and 234 were damaged across Koro Island, rendering more than 3,000 people homeless. Significant damage was reported across Ovalau, where maximum water run-up reached 7 m (23 ft). Across Taveuni Island, 722 homes were destroyed and 837 were damaged at an estimated cost of FJ$11.2 million (US$5.29 million). The two main ports on Taveuni were severely damaged and largely rendered unusable. Southern areas of the island became isolated when a bridge was destroyed. A communication tower on Mago Island, owned by Mel Gibson, collapsed. In Lomaiviti Province alone, the storm created 42,000 tons of debris.