The 2025 Southern Somalia offensive (Somali: Weeraradii Shabeelle ee 2025ka), also known as Operation Ramadan (Somali: Hawlgalka Ramadaanka), was a military campaign in central Somalia, primarily in the Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions, with periodic clashes in the Banaadir region. The offensive was launched by jihadist militant group al-Shabaab against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces, and allied Ma'awisley clan militias. The group seeks to encircle the capital, Mogadishu, and regain territory lost in the 2022 Somali government / African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.
The offensive began on 20 February 2025, with attacks on multiple positions of the Somali Armed Forces (SAF), including car bombs. Al-Shabaab temporarily seized several towns before being repelled by AU, SAF, and allied militia forces. Subsequent attacks in late February targeted locations such as Bal'ad, a district capital near Mogadishu. Balad and other towns were quickly recaptured. In mid-March 2025, al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate the president of Somalia. Both the United States and Ethiopia have conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting.
The campaign is part of a broader escalation in Somalia insurgency, with al-Shabaab attempting to exploit security gaps created by the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM. Thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops are reportedly preparing to deploy in an attempt to bolster SNA/AUSSOM forces. Analysts suggest the timing of the offensive may be linked to Ramadan and seasonal factors affecting militant operations.
Attacks
Initial attacks
On 20 February 2025, al-Shabaab militants attacked four villages in the Middle Shabelle region with vehicles laden with explosives, they captured two villages before the Somali National Army repelled the al-Shabaab militants from two villages in heavy fighting including the village of Ali Ahmed, where at least seven Somali National Army members were killed, twenty al-Shabaab militants, and one local clan fighter were killed. Al-Shabaab militants used VBIED attacks, mortars, and attacked villages from all directions. Unnamed commanders of al-Shabaab were killed in the village of Ceel Cali Axmed. Other villages like El Baraf were attacked, with fighting from pro-government Ma'awisley Abgal clan militia until they retreated and the village of El Baraf fell to al-Shabaab with at least 93 pro-Government deaths.
In total, 130 al-Shabaab militants were killed and the villages of El-Ali, Daaru Nicma, Ali Fooldheere, and Al Kawthar were taken from al-Shabaab after brief moments of capture. Weapons, vehicles, and other military equipment were taken from al-Shabaab militants after the confrontation though the exact amount of items were never specified.
According to General Ibrahim Mumin, the commander of the 3rd Brigade, 27th Division, Somali National Army, al-Shabaab failed at its attempt at capturing major villages the Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab has claimed they took over four military bases in the Middle Shabelle area and Ali Ahmed, Daru Nicma, Kevser and Ali Fol Dheer settlements. Dozens of Mogadishu administration soldiers were killed and injured in the attacks with al-Shabaab releasing images of the attacks through their media outlet, al-Kataib Media Foundation, with some officers being recorded as captured by al-Shabaab.
Later attacks and offensive
February
On 25 February, a joint military operation by the Somali government and local forces in Hirshabelle state, south-central Somalia, resulted in the deaths of over 70 al-Shabaab members. Many of the al-Shabaab members were besieged and killed. On the same day, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia, seizing weapons and military vehicles. Militants launched a surprise attack on the Aboorey area in Hiiraan, targeting Macawisley militia members and claiming to have inflicted casualties and captured vehicles, though militia officials also reported inflicting losses on the attackers. Simultaneously, al-Shabaab assaulted multiple areas in Middle Shabelle, causing civilians to flee, and re-entered the El Ahmed and al-Kowthar areas, establishing a continued presence. Rising fear is reported in Aadan Yabaal, formerly held by government forces and the Ma'awisley militia. Through these attacks, al-Shabaab took two villages including Ali Ahmed.
On 26 February, al-Shabaab fighters attacked Balad district in the Middle Shabelle region early, entering the town from multiple directions and engaging Somali federal government forces in heavy fighting. While the extent of casualties remains unclear, government-run media reported that the attack was defeated. Al-Shabaab militants attacked military bases in the Balad district.
On 27 February, mortar shells were fired from the Middle Shabelle area at Mogadishu ahead of a planned visit by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. On the same day, fighting began in the town of Balad located 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) north of Mogadishu, with al-Shabaab militants capturing the town after storming a military base located near the town. The militants temporarily seized control of key government buildings and infrastructure, and also freed prisoners from the local prison before later withdrawing from the town.
March
On 1 March, heavy clashes ensued between Somali forces and al-Shabaab militants in Biyo Adde, a town in Middle Shabelle region, after al-Shabaab launched an assault against government checkpoints, with al-Shabaab publishing images of its fighters occupying the town. Al-Shabaab militants also attacked a house occupied by SNA commanders and soldiers in Kahda district, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab militants also ambushed federal troops on the road between Mogadishu and Balcad, killing three and seizing weapons and motorcycles. Al-Shabaab also encircled the town of Jowhar, the administrative capital of the Hirshabelle state and located approximately 91 kilometers north of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.
On 2 March, the Somali National Army completed an operation that killed around 40 al-Shabaab members. Al-Shabaab also fired mortars at SNA positions in Adan Yabaal town.
On 3 March, the United States assisted with airstrikes against al-Shabaab during this operation near the El Baraf area in the Middle Shabelle region during clashes in Biyaadde according to an AFRICOM report, with Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Ahmed Hagar Dabageed saying "the fight will continue and will not stop until al-Shabaab is defeated." On the same day, al-Shabaab militants killed 60 Somali soldiers in coordinated attacks across several towns north of Mogadishu, though al-Shabaab claims they killed 100. These offensives have pushed closer to Mogadishu with these being the deadliest offensive by al-Shabaab in several years. On the same day as well, Somali government forces, backed by local clan militias known as Macwiisley, repelled an attack by al-Shabaab militants in the Boos-Hareeri area of the Adan Yabal district. Al-Shabaab recaptured Boos-Hareeri later that day, killing 20 SNA soldiers and wounding 13 others. Al-Shabaab also captured the town of El Ali Ahmed killing 18 SNA soldiers and wounding 36.
On 4 March, al-Shabaab militants captured the village of War Ciise, located 25 km from the provincial capital Jowhar, without a fight after Somali government forces fled, publishing images of militants patrolling the village.
On 5 March, al-Shabaab militants continued their advance towards Mogadishu through the Middle Shabelle, after the capturing of Balcad they continued south to Mogadishu. That same day the Ethiopian Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes on al-Shabaab targets in the Middle Shabelle region, marked Ethiopia's first known aerial operation in Somalia in nearly two decades since its 2006 intervention against the Islamic Courts Union. However, despite airstrikes al-Shabaab militants have largely retained their positions, with ground offensives by Somali forces and allied Ma'awisley militias yet to dislodge al-Shabaab from its newly captured territories. Al-Shabaab also launched an attack on federal positions in Yaqshid district.
On 6 March, the federal government deployed reinforcements to Middle Shabelle region to intensify its military operations in the area against al-Shabaab. Federal government officials also visit the town of Bal'ad to boost morale of federal troops.
On 7 March, al-Shabaab militants attacked and recaptured al-Kowthar in the Boos-Hareri area in the Aden Yabal district after battling Somali forces, killing several and injuring several, including Colonel Saney Abdulle. Several military vehicles were captured from the Somali soldiers by al-Shabaab including one with a Zu-23 anti-aircraft gun attached to it. The group also published images of its fighters in the town and the government militia base there. Al-Shabaab fighters also launched attacks on the Boos-Hareri village itself, with Harun Maruf reporting its re-capture. On the same day, the Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nuur confirmed Ethiopian airstrikes carried out against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle with coordination from the Federal Government of Somalia. Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble stated that the Federal Government is currently facing a difficult situation and needs to cooperate with the opposition and the conservatives, otherwise the country will be taken over by al-Shabaab. He also stated that apart from the Middle Shabelle region where heavy fighting is ongoing, there are fears that major battles will spread to other regions by al-Shabaab. The Somalian government also banned weapons and military vehicles from entering Aden Adde International Airport driven by security concerns raised by the Americans.
On 8 March, the Ethiopian Air Force continued its air strikes against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle region in Somalia with cooperation from the Somali government. The Ethiopian government also deployed a large number of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) near the border town of Ferfer in preparation for upcoming military operations targeting al-Shabaab militants in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions. Near the Boos-Hareri region, Somali soldiers conducted a military operation killing 20 al-Shabaab militants. Al-Shabaab killed, Abukar Abdulle 'Garmaqate', a senior police commander and 1st Brigade commander of the Police, and overran the villages of Bursha Sheekh, Ceel Xarar, Laba Garas and Xaruur, located near the strategic town of Adale, approximately 70 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu. The militant also released images of their fighters in Balad during their temporary occupation of the town on 28 February. Somalian officials also confirmed the death of Yusuf Dhegnaas, a senior al-Shabaab leader, in a targeted airstrike in the El Ba'ad area of the Middle Shabelle region on March 5.
On 9 March, Mukhtar Robow, Somalia's Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs and himself a former deputy leader and former spokesman of al-Shabaab before defecting in 2017, dismissed fears that Mogadishu could fall to al-Shabaab militants in a statement, declaring that the group has lost its ability to mount a serious threat to the capital. He also rejected comparisons between al-Shabaab and extremist groups in Syria, insisting that Somalia is not on the brink of collapse stating "Mogadishu is neither Kabul nor Damascus, and Ahmed Diriye is no Ahmed al-Sharaa". Somalia's Deputy Minister of Defence, Omar Ali Abdi, also revealed that senior government officials within the administration have been sharing sensitive military intelligence directly with al-Shabaab militants. Al-Shabaab engaged in clashes with government forces killing multiple and injuring thirty six, capturing one as a prisoner of war and seizing a Bika machine gun and seven Kalashnikov rifles, in the village of Ali Ahmed, repelling five other attacks and reasserting control of the area. Al-Shabaab also attacked the town of Hareeri Caadley, killing its government-appointed mayor.
On 10 March, Somali National Army forces, including the 143rd Battalion of the 14th October Brigade were fighting in the Baladul Amin area, part of the Afgooye district. The SNA and international partners carried out an airstrike against al-Shabaab militants, killing an al-Shabaab leader that was later identified as Da'uud Mohamed Maleele, who is known as the emir of zakat tax collection of the Baladul Amin area in Afgooye district. On the same day, an airstrike coordinated by the Somali National Army targeted makeshift bridges by al-Shabaab which were used to connect regions together and make movements by al-Shabaab easier. Former deputy director of Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Abdisalam Guled, warned about al-Shabaab's growing threat, stating that al-Shabaab is shifting its methods, aiming to gain public trust while strengthening its territorial hold in central and southern Somalia, particularly in Hirshabelle. He also noted that al-Shabaab is using strategies similar to those seen with the Taliban in their takeover of Afghanistan and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria's conflict, hoping to establish its own governing authority.