The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below-average hurricane season that is currently the most recent to have fewer than 10 tropical depressions or named storms, despite the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes being overall average. It produced nine tropical cyclones, eight of which became named storms; six storms became hurricanes and two intensified further into major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first storm of the season, Arthur, developed on July 1, while the final storm, Hanna, dissipated on October 28, about a month prior to the end of the season.
Most major forecasting agencies predicted that below-average activity would occur in this season due to unfavorable conditions linked with the expected development of a strong El Niño. While the predicted El Niño did not develop until October 2014, unfavorable conditions still were established across the basin, suppressing activity. Although every named storm impacted land, overall effects were minimal. Arthur caused one indirect fatality and $16.8 million (2014 USD) in damage after striking North Carolina and becoming the first Category 2 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2008's Hurricane Ike, and its remnants moving across Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Bertha brushed the Lesser Antilles but its impacts were relatively minor. Three deaths occurred offshore the United States and one fatal injury was reported off the coast of the United Kingdom. Hurricane Cristobal caused two deaths each in Haiti and the Dominican Republic and one in Turks and Caicos Islands, all due to flooding. Rip currents affected Maryland and New Jersey, resulting in one fatality in each state. The remnants of Cristobal were responsible for three indirect deaths in the United Kingdom. Tropical Storm Dolly made landfall in eastern Mexico and triggered flooding due to heavy rains, leaving minor impact. Hurricane Edouard caused two deaths near the coast of Maryland due to strong rip currents.
Fay struck Bermuda and caused about $3.8 million in damage. Hurricane Gonzalo was the most intense hurricane of the season. A powerful Atlantic hurricane, Gonzalo had destructive impacts in the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda, and it was also the first Category 4 hurricane since Ophelia in 2011 and the strongest in the basin since Igor in 2010. It caused three fatalities in the Lesser Antilles and at least $200 million in damage in Bermuda. The remnants brought flooding and strong winds in Europe, causing three deaths in the United Kingdom. With two hurricanes striking Bermuda, this was the first season featuring more than one hurricane landfall on the island. The last storm of the season, Tropical Storm Hanna, made landfall over Central America in late October producing minimal impact.
Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. Therefore, a storm with a longer duration or stronger intensity, such as Gonzalo, will have high values of ACE. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. After the storm has dissipated, typically after the end of the season, the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm. These revisions can lead to a revised ACE total either upward or downward compared to the operational value. NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 13, 2013, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued their first outlook on seasonal hurricane activity during the 2014 season. Their report called for a near-normal year, with 14 (±4) tropical storms, 6 (±3) hurricanes, 3 (±2) intense hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 106 (±58) units. The basis for such included slightly stronger than normal trade winds and slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. A few months later, on March 24, 2014, Weather Services International (WSI), a subsidiary company of The Weather Channel, released their first outlook, calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Two factors—cooler-than-average waters in the eastern Atlantic, and the likelihood of an El Niño developing during the summer of 2014—were expected to negate high seasonal activity.
On April 7, TSR issued their second extended-range forecast for the season, lowering the predicted numbers to 12 (±4) named storms, 5 (±3) hurricanes, 2 (±2) major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 75 (±57) units. Three days later, CSU issued their first outlook for the year, predicting activity below the 1981–2010 average. Citing a likely El Niño of at least moderate intensity and cooler-than-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the organization predicted nine named storms, three hurricanes, one major hurricane, and an ACE index of 55 units. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the United States or tracking through the Caribbean Sea was expected to be lower than average.
On May 16, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of a slightly below-average season. It predicted 10 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 7 and 13 and 6 hurricanes with a 70% chance that the number would be between 3 and 9. It also predicted an ACE index of 84 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 47 to 121. NOAA released their pre-season forecasts on May 22 and called for a 70% chance that there would be between 8 and 13 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 2 major hurricanes. On May 29, the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, FSU COAPS, issued its first and only prediction for the season. The organization called for five to nine named storms, of which two to six would further intensify into hurricanes; one to two of the hurricanes would reach major hurricane intensity. In addition, an ACE index of 60 units was forecast.
Mid-season predictions
In July and August, CSU, TSR, and NOAA released similar outlooks for the remainder of the season. CSU increased its prediction on July 31 to ten named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, which was unchanged from its forecast on May 23. The forecast team noted that conditions for tropical cyclogenesis appeared "detrimental", with abnormally cold sea surface temperatures, higher than average sea-level pressures, and strong vertical wind shear. TSR issued another forecast on July 5, indicated that there would be nine to fifteen named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes, citing conditions similar to those forecast by CSU. Two days later, NOAA revised its predictions and called for seven to twelve named storms, three to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes. NOAA noted similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but also indicated a weaker African monsoon, a stable atmosphere, and sinking air.
Seasonal summary
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2014. It was a below average season in which nine tropical cyclones formed. Eight of the nine designated cyclones attained tropical storm status, the fewest since the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season. Of the eight tropical storms, six reached at least Category 1 hurricane intensity. The 2014 season extended the period without major hurricane landfalls in the United States to nine years, with the last such system being Hurricane Wilma in 2005. The lack of activity was attributed to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the Atlantic Ocean and strong wind shear over the Caribbean Sea. Additionally, sea surface temperatures were near-average. A few notable events occurred during the season. Arthur made landfall between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras as a Category 2 hurricane, becoming the first U.S. landfalling cyclone of that intensity since Hurricane Ike in 2008. Arthur also became the earliest known hurricane to strike the North Carolina coastline on record, doing so on July 4. In October, Fay became the first hurricane to make landfall on Bermuda since Emily in 1987. With Gonzalo striking the island only four days later, 2014 became the first season on record in which more than one hurricane struck Bermuda. Four hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall during the season and caused 21 deaths and at least $233 million in damage. Hurricane Cristobal also caused fatalities, though it did not strike land. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2014.
Tropical cyclogenesis commenced with the development of Arthur on July 1. The system intensified into the first hurricane of the year early on July 3. Both events occurred ahead of the respective long-term climatological average date: July 9 for first named storm, and August 10 for first hurricane. Later that month, a tropical depression developed over the eastern Atlantic, but dissipated after only two days. There were also two tropical cyclones in August, with the development of hurricanes Bertha and Cristobal. Despite being the climatological peak of hurricane season, only two additional systems originated in September – Tropical Storm Dolly and Hurricane Edouard. In October, three storms developed, including hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo and Tropical Storm Hanna. The most intense tropical cyclone – Hurricane Gonzalo – peaked with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h) on October 16 which is a Category 4 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. It was the first Category 4 hurricane since Hurricane Ophelia in 2011. The final tropical cyclone of the season was Hanna, which dissipated on October 28.
The season's activity was reflected with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating of 66.7. This was nearly double that of the previous season, but still well below the 1981–2010 median of 92. The ACE value in October was higher than August and September combined, which has not occurred since 1963.
Systems
Hurricane Arthur
On June 25, a low-pressure area formed within a mesoscale convective complex over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. After crossing Georgia and South Carolina, it became absorbed by a weak frontal boundary that drifted south-southeastward. An area of low pressure developed off the Southeast United States by June 28, eventually leading to the formation of a tropical depression by 00:00 UTC on July 1. Amid a generally favorable environment, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Arthur at 12:00 UTC that same day and further to a Category 1 hurricane by 00:00 UTC on July 3. An approaching mid-level trough directed the storm north-northeastward as it continued to intensify, and Arthur reached its peak as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) at 00:00 UTC on July 4. A few hours later, it moved ashore just west of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, becoming the earliest landfalling hurricane on record in the state. Following landfall, Arthur accelerated northeast across the western Atlantic while encountering an increasingly unfavorable environment, weakening to a tropical storm at 06:00 UTC on July 5 and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone six hours later. The post-tropical low eventually dissipated east of Labrador late on July 9.
As a developing tropical cyclone, Arthur produced light rainfall across the northwestern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds peaked at 77 mph (124 km/h), with a peak gust of 101 mph (163 km/h), at Cape Lookout, and Oregon Inlet recorded a peak storm surge of 4.5 ft (1.4 m). At its height, Arthur knocked out power to 44,000 people in North Carolina, triggering Duke Energy to deploy over 500 personnel to restore electricity. Widespread rainfall totals of 6–8 in (150–200 mm) led to the inundation of numerous buildings in Manteo. As the storm passed offshore New England, sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and gusts up to 63 mph (101 km/h) were observed. Observed rainfall totals over a half foot required the issuance of a flash flood emergency for New Bedford, Massachusetts, while several roads were shut down in surrounding locations. After transitioning into an extratropical cyclone, Arthur knocked out power to more than 290,000 individuals across the Maritimes, with damage to the electrical grid considered the worst since Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia. One person died after his oxygen support was cut off during a power outage. Hurricane-force gusts were observed in Nova Scotia, with tropical storm-force winds observed as far away as Quebec. Overall, Arthur caused at least $28.6 million in damage.
Tropical Depression Two
A tropical wave emerged off the western coast of Africa on July 17. Steered westward, a small area of low pressure developed in association with the wave two days later. Convection steadily increased and organized, leading to the formation of a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on July 21. The depression failed to intensify into a tropical storm amid an exceptionally dry and stable environment and instead degenerated into a trough by 18:00 UTC on July 23 while located east of the Lesser Antilles.