The Belarusian presidential elections were held on 19 December 2010 and were condemned by international observers. Incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko secured his fourth term, defeating nine opposition candidates.
President Lukashenko had been in office since 1994, consolidating his power and abolishing presidential term limits in a 2004 referendum. The United States and the European Union criticized him for a poor human rights record and authoritarian rule, especially noting the violent suppression of mass protests after his prior re-election in 2006. Relations between Belarus and Russia had deteriorated following the 2007 winter gas dispute, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, and subsequent conflicts over the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This provided Alexander Lukashenko with an opportunity to normalize relations with the West. The further rapprochement depended on the election being recognized as free and fair by Western observers, which led Lukashenko to partially liberalize the electoral process.
Of the ten candidates, incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko was declared the winner by the Central Election Commission with over 80% of the vote. After an opposition protest against electoral fraud was violently suppressed by riot police the night after the elections, hundreds of protesters and seven presidential candidates were arrested by the Belarusian KGB, including runner-up Andrei Sannikov.
Western countries decried the election as a farce and an egregious affront to democracy and human rights. The United States and the European Union called for the release of all imprisoned candidates. By contrast, countries such as Syria, China, Vietnam, and Russia congratulated the re-elected incumbent.
Background
Lukashenko was elected as the first President of Belarus in 1994. In 1996, he held a referendum to adopt changes to the Constitution that consolidated his power. In 2004, he conducted another to abolish term limits. His rule has been described as authoritarian, and no elections since 1994 have been deemed free and fair by Western observers. The 2006 elections led to mass protests, labeled the "Jeans Revolution", as well as condemnation of Lukashenko's government and the introduction of sanctions by the USA and the EU.
Russia and Belarus formed the Union State in 1999, but initial enthusiasm for deeper integration stalled as early as 2003. Soon after the 2006 elections, Russia initiated an effort to obtain a share of Beltransgaz, the Belarusian gas monopoly. This led to Lukashenko considering an energy alliance with neighboring, pro-Western Ukraine. The conflict culminated in the 2006-2007 winter gas dispute, which led to a three-day cutoff of oil flow via the Druzhba pipeline. This experience led Lukashenko to declare his Russia-oriented foreign policy a mistake. Russia threatened to cut gas flow again in June 2007, and Lukashenko responded by saying he wouldn't kneel to the Kremlin.
During the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 Belarus didn't recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Russian ambassador in Belarus criticized Minsk for insufficient support of Russia. Shortly after Lukashenko released the last political prisoners, in October travel sanctions by the EU against most Belarusian officials were suspended and Belarus started negotiations on loan from the IMF to deal with the 2008 financial crisis. Shortly after Lukashenko eased censorship and allowed printing of the two oppositions newspapers, Nasha Niva and Narodnaya Volya.
In May 2009, Belarus took part in the EU's Eastern Partnership summit. In June, Russia engaged in a short-term trade dispute with Belarus, banning the import of dairy products. In April 2010, the ousted President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev found refuge in Belarus, for which Russian president Dmitry Medvedev sharply criticized his Belarusian counterpart. In June 2010, the two countries had another energy dispute, which led to a temporarily lower amount of oil shipped via Belarus and a delay in the signing of the Customs Union between Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
In domestic politics, Lukashenko limited coverage of Russian TV. Following recommendations from the OSCE, he liberalized election laws, making meetings and funding easier and allowing candidates to debate each other on TV. Western countries, on their part, limited funding of pro-democracy NGOs and promised further financial assistance in case the 2010 elections were free and fair according to Western monitors.
Electoral system
Presidential elections in Belarus were conducted via two-round system. Candidates were required to get 50% of all ballots cast to win in the first round, otherwise the second round should be held. For an election to be valid, over 50% of registered voters must participate.
To be eligible for President one must be Belarusian-born citizen at least 35 years old and resided in the country at least 10 years prior to the election.
The election date was set by the lower house of parliament. It had to be scheduled no later than five months and conducted no later than two months before the end of the President's current term.
The 2010 election followed this timeline:
Candidates
Death of Aleh Byabenin
In the first week of September 2010, candidate Andrei Sannikov's campaign press secretary Aleh Byabenin was found hanged. Biabienin had been a key member of Sannikov's campaign, and was also director and co-founder of Charter97 – an opposition group and website and one of the few outlets for information on opposition candidates during the election. The official investigation ruled the death as suicide, but Sannikov expressed suspicion; saying that Biabienin had been in good mental health, there was no suicide note, and there were unexplained injuries on the body.
Lukashenko
President Lukashenko (who had been serving his third term), when addressing the press in February 2007, stated that his health permitting, he would run in 2011. According to the result of a referendum in 2004, Lukashenko was declared the first President of Belarus and therefore had no term limits. On 4 May 2010, in an interview with Reuters, he stated: "I have not yet decided whether I will run [...] There are no factors now that would force me to refuse to participate".
Alaksandar Milinkievic, of the "For Freedom" movement (Руху "За Свабоду"), initially announced his bid, but canceled it in September.
The CEC issued a warning to Uladzimir Nyaklyayew's "Say the Truth!" movement for violating the Electoral Legislation when his organisation gathered signatures of ineligible constituents for "subscription lists."
There were rumors that only three candidates besides Lukashenko managed to gather the 100,000 required signatures.
Campaign
Conduct
Campaigning officially began on 19 November. Candidates held one-to-one meetings across the country and could use Belarusian state media for their TV and radio broadcasts They could also participate in a live media debate, which occurred for the first time since 1994. However, contrary to the Electoral Code, these debates were not aired during primetime. The media environment remained biased in favor of Lukashenko; he received 90% of coverage both on state TV and in state newspapers.
Changes in the law allowed candidates to establish their individual campaign funds and use their own money or supporters' contributions to fill them. Lukashenko received €30,500 this way, Nyaklyayew €25,000, and Sannikov €4,200. Additionally, all candidates were given €19,500 for print campaign materials.
During the election, there was no need to obtain permission for mass events; only notifying authorities was required. Lukashenko conducted 57 mass events, Nyaklyayew 40, and Sannikov 23, while other candidates held no more than a dozen.
On 15 December 2010, Andrei Sannikov filed two legal complaint applications with the Central Election Commission, demanding the withdrawal of Alexander Lukashenko's registration for electoral violations and the removal of Lidia Yermoshina, the chairwoman of the CEC, for conflict of interest. Both complaints were denied.
Russia
The run-up to the campaign was marked by a series of Russian media attacks upon the incumbent Alexander Lukashenko. NTV television broadcast throughout July a multi-part documentary entitled 'The Godfather' highlighting the suspicious disappearance of opposition leaders Yury Zacharanka and Viktar Hanchar, businessman Anatol Krasoŭski and journalist Dzmitry Zavadski during the late 1990s, as well as highlighting a statement Lukashenko had made seemingly praising Adolf Hitler.
Lukashenko referred to the media attack as "dirty propaganda". He also accused Russia of funding his opposition, to which Dmitry Medvedev responded by saying that Lukashenko lacked basic human decency. Broadcasts of Russian media critical of the Belarusian President were censored.
Opinion polls
Prior to the election, Belarusian pollster IISEPS regularly asked citizens to indicate their preferred candidate if elections were held tomorrow.
Polls typically include those who do not vote, meaning a candidate's stated share of votes will be lower than what would be observed in an actual election. For instance, 51.1% in a December poll translates to 58.0% at the ballot. The Central Election Commission said that all nine opposition figures were likely to get less than half the vote total incumbent Lukashenko would get. Nine organizations were allowed to conduct opinion polls about the elections, among them SOCIUM and TNS-Ukraine, but not IISEPS.
According to a December 2010 IISEPS poll, 57.5% believed that Lukashenka had won in the first round while 23.5% disagreed. The poll also asked about a potential second round, finding that 57.1% would have voted for Lukashenko and 23.9% for Nyaklyayew.
June 2011 poll from IISEPS also provided detailed voter demographics
After the election, Belarus experienced an economic crisis for which 61.2% blamed the President personally. This led to a collapse in his electoral rating, from 53% in December 2010 to 20.5% in September 2011.
Election Day
The Central Election Commission of Belarus (CEC) said it was ready to cooperate with the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in monitoring the election.
Though opposition figures alleged intimidation and "dirty tricks" were being played, Al Jazeera reported that the election was seen as comparatively open as a result of desire to improve relations with both Europe at-large and the United States.
The elections were observed by 36,096 domestic and 1,032 international observers, including 490 from the OSCE. The OSCE praised Lukashenko for improving the security of early voting; in the 2010 elections, 27.9% of eligible voters cast their ballots this way. On Election Day, observers positively assessed the voting process at 94% of observed polling stations.
However, less than one percent of electoral commission members were appointed by the opposition, and vote counting was assessed negatively in half of the cases. These shortcomings led to the conclusion that Belarus failed to meet its OSCE commitments regarding the election.
The Russia-led CIS delegation assessed the election as free and fair.
Aftermath
Protests and crackdown
A large protest rally was organized the evening after the election at October Square in the center of downtown Minsk. This square had historically been the site of large protests, such as the violent suppression of the Jeans Revolution that took place after the disputed 2006 presidential election. However, riot police had cordoned off the square before the event, and people instead gathered at the nearby Liberty Square. While walking to the rally with about a hundred other people, presidential candidates Uladzimir Nyaklyayew and Mikola Statkevich were attacked by armed men dressed in black. Nyaklyayew was beaten to unconsciousness and hospitalized for head injuries. Statkievič later claimed they were attacked by Belarus special forces.
During the rally up to 30,000 people protested against Lukashenko, chanting, "Out!," "Long Live Belarus!" and other such slogans. A group of protesters tried to storm a principal government building, smashing windows and doors before riot police pushed them back. Candidate Vital Rymasheuski blamed "drunk provocateurs" for the violence. According to a protester, the demonstrators were largely peaceful and that it was a separate "group of people" who attacked the government building – suggesting also a provocation of force by Belarusian authorities.
According to a protest participant (who is also director of the Belarus Free Theatre), thousands of demonstrators were beaten by riot police, and the square was left spattered with blood. She stated she was forced into a prison van and made to lie face down, while prison guards threatened her with murder and rape if she moved. Andrei Sannikov and his wife Iryna Khalip were among those attacked by police during the rally; and according to eyewitness statements gathered by Charter 97, Sannikov was singled out from the crowd by the OMON for a beating: "Andrei was beaten by truncheons while he was lying. He was beaten on the head [...] all over the body. Andrei was lying and trying to protect himself with his arms. No one was allowed to come near him, so that people could not defend Sannikov."