Typhoon Rai, locally named Odette, was the second-costliest tropical cyclone in the Philippines after it struck the country in December 2021. The typhoon also killed 409 people in the Philippines, with the greatest deaths in Bohol province. Rai formed on December 11 in the western Pacific Ocean. Two days later, it strengthened into a tropical storm. After passing near Palau, Rai entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by the night of December 14, where PAGASA named it Odette. Rai attained typhoon status and rapidly intensified while approaching the Philippines. The American-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) designated Rai as a super typhoon. Around that time, the JMA estimated peak maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph). On December 16, the typhoon traversed the Visayas in the central Philippines, exiting into the Sulu Sea. After making its last landfall over Palawan, Rai continued to weaken before unexpectedly re-intensifying into a Category 5-equivalent typhoon by December 18, while nearing Vietnam. On the next day, Rai entered yet another weakening phase, dissipating on December 21, southeast of Hong Kong.
As Rai pounded the Philippines, heavy rainfall and strong and gusty winds impacted several areas around the storm's path. Many areas across the Visayas and Mindanao lost electricity with several provinces and areas being deprived further of communication services. Downed trees obstructed many roadways, and flooding was a major problem across the affected regions, particularly Bohol, where the storm was described as "one of the worst for the province". Rivers also overflowed across Cagayan de Oro, while numerous buildings sustained damage. Surigao City was reported to be completely damaged, and appealed for aid. Bohol also pleaded for help from the government due to the damages Rai brought to the area. A state of calamity was placed in the province and Cebu. Damages were finalized at ₱47.6 billion (US$951 million), including ₱29.8 billion (US$596 million) of infrastructural damage. This made Rai the second-costliest typhoon in the Philippines, after Haiyan in 2013. Rai also affected Vietnam, where it killed one person.
As a result of the extensive damage and high death toll that brought in the Philippines, both names were retired following the season and they will never be used again in the Western Pacific basin and within the Philippine Area of Responsibility, respectively. They were replaced with Sarbul and Opong for future seasons.
Meteorological history
At 06:00 UTC on December 9, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) started to monitor a low-latitude area of convection in the Pacific Ocean at 4°36′N 142°24′E / 4.6°N 142.4°E, located about 650 km (400 mi) east-southeast of Palau. A broad circulation was identified by the agency, with flaring convection over it. The circulation had a marginal environment with low to moderate wind shear, fair outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. Despite its given environment, however, the disturbance failed to intensify and dissipated by 06:00 UTC the next day. Another new area of low pressure formed on December 10, near the location of the previous disturbance. Analysis on the system revealed a degraded and disorganized low-level circulation center. Position fixes by 02:30 UTC on December 11 determined that its center had shifted to the north over a developing surface trough, while convective bursts occurred around the system. An advanced scatterometer pass featured below gale-force winds on its northwest quadrant. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the western Pacific Ocean) designated the system as a tropical depression around 18:00 UTC on December 11. PAGASA also started issuing warnings for the system, defining it as a tropical depression.
The storm was in a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. It moved westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. By 03:00 UTC on December 13, the JTWC designated the system as Tropical Depression 28W, highly based on Dvorak ratings of T1.5. Three hours later, the JMA upgraded the depression to a tropical storm, naming it Rai. Late on December 13, Rai began to pass south of Ngulu State, while continuing to intensify and organize. The JMA cited a good outflow and a favorable environment. By December 14 in the early morning, the system was upgraded to a severe tropical storm by the JMA. By 09:00 UTC, the JTWC noted that the system's cloud tops became warm; however, it further organized while tracking towards the small island country of Palau. The storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility around 11:00 UTC (19:00 PHT), and was named Odette by the PAGASA. Four hours later, Rai began to exhibit an eye which was first seen on microwave images. The JMA further upgraded the system to a typhoon by the next day, followed by the JTWC three hours later as Rai began to take a westward motion under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its north.
On December 15, Rai underwent rapid intensification as it approached the Philippines, developing a small eye within the center of the convection. Within the 24 hours before landfall, Rai surpassed meteorologists' expectations by increasing its wind speed by 85 mph (137 km/h). PAGASA forecaster Nikos Peñaranda stated that their models "weren't able to predict the way the storm intensified". This rapid intensification was regarded as a cause of global warming. At 00:00 UTC on December 16, the system attained the equivalent of category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The JTWC estimated peak 1 minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (175 mph). The JTWC classified Rai as a super typhoon but downgraded the system back to a typhoon three hours later. On December 16, the typhoon made landfall over Siargao Island in the province of Surigao del Norte around 1:30 PM local time (05:30 UTC), with winds of wind speeds of 195 km/h (121 mph). This made it the strongest landfall in December. Soon after its first landfall, Rai made a second landfall over Dinagat Islands around 3:10 PM local time (07:10 UTC). A third landfall occurred in Liloan, Southern Leyte at 3:40 PM local time (7:40 UTC). A fourth landfall occurred at Panaon Island, also at Liloan, at around 4:50 PM (8:50 UTC). Padre Burgos, Southern Leyte was the fifth at 5:40 PM (09:40 UTC), followed nearly one-hour later at President Carlos P. Garcia, Bohol and approximately another hour at Bien Unido, still at Bohol. The eighth landfall occurred at Carcar, Cebu by 10:00 PM (14:00 UTC) and the ninth over La Libertad, Negros Oriental, two hours later. The typhoon weakened while crossing the Visayas. As Rai entered Panay Gulf, its eye further weakened and its convective signature becoming disorganized as the JTWC further downgraded it to a Category 3 system six hours later. It continued to weaken while tracking towards the Sulu Sea by the next day at 03:00 UTC. By 07:10 UTC (15:10 PHT), the system made its final landfall over Roxas, Palawan as it continued to lose intensity.
Rai then entered the South China Sea, where warm waters allowed for intensification. The system then left the PAR by 12:40 PHT (04:40 UTC). After a secondary period of rapid intensification, Rai attained Category 5-equivalent super typhoon status in the South China Sea on December 18. It was only the third time on record, after Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 and Pamela of 1954, to reach such an intensity in the South China Sea. However, cooler waters and dry air caused the typhoon to weaken again as it curved northwestward. On December 20, Rai weakened back into a tropical storm as the track shifted to the north, passing east of China's Hainan island. That day, the JTWC discontinued advisories, and on December 21, Rai dissipated off the southern coast of China.
On March 23, 2022, as PAGASA issued their revised tropical cyclone scale, Rai (Odette) was considered as a super typhoon.
Preparations
Federated States of Micronesia
Upon the system's intensification into a tropical depression, a typhoon watch was issued by the US National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, in Koror and Kayangel while a tropical storm warning was placed for Ngulu Atoll. The island of Yap was placed also under tropical storm watch. This was further upgraded into a typhoon warning for Palau as Rai further intensifies. The alerts for Ngulu and Yap were first canceled by 09:00 UTC of December 14 and six hours later, the typhoon warning were also canceled for Palau.
Philippines
Highest Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
PAGASA began issuing Tropical Cyclone Advisories as early as December 12 given the forecasted track of the storm. In its first advisory, PAGASA forecasted the possibility of Signal #4 being raised over the Visayas and Mindanao regions, later lowered to Signal #3. The PAGASA also forecasted winds of up to 155 km/h (96 mph) prior to landfall. On December 14, storm signals were raised in Caraga and Eastern Visayas as the storm entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Starting on the night of December 13, land travel on bound to Visayas, Mindanao, the province of Masbate and Catanduanes were canceled according to an approved request of the Office of the Civil Defense in the country. The Land Transportation Office also placed the same travel restrictions in Mindanao and Luzon as a precaution. All types of vessels are also prohibited to leave the country's ports if there are any storm signals raised. Fishermen living near coastal areas were also urged by the country's coast guard to leave their homes "as soon as possible". Other Philippine provinces like Bohol and Aklan were also prepared for possible work cancelations and evacuation premises in regards to the storm. Floating cottages in General Santos, as well as fishing boats were brought to shore and safety. The vaccination operations across the possible affected areas were earlier suspended by December 20–22. Over 23,642 food packs for evacuees were also readied by the country's Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), over 18,665 non-edible items as well as over ₱752,250 (US$15,040) worth of standby funds. The airline carrier Cebu Pacific also suspended three flights in the country.
Over 12,000 individuals in barangays across Mindanao, Visayas, and further north into Southern Luzon were also urged by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) to immediately leave their homes. The whole of Bicol Region was also under red alert starting on December 14. The higher authorities there also warned its people of possible landslides and lahar flow from the Mayon Volcano. Cebu was also under a "state of preparedness" due to the storm. Furthermore, many individuals, of which the majority are going into the Bicol Region in the Parañaque Integrated Terminal Exchange (PITX) were also stranded due to ferry suspensions. Capiz already started voluntary evacuations at this time, first focused on people living in coastal areas. Liloan, Cebu also initiated forced evacuations by the afternoon of December 15. Several flights into Visayas and Mindanao from Ninoy Aquino International Airport were also delayed, rescheduled, and/or canceled, mainly from the earlier Cebu Pacific, Philippine Airlines and Airasia. Some face-to-face classes in the affected areas were also halted. Many billboards in Bohol were also removed and the annual Binirayan festival in Antique was canceled due to Rai. The city of Surigao was already soaked by the rains of Odette by the afternoon of December 15, including the whole of Eastern Visayas. Thousands of evacuees rushed into safety shelters in the area whereas in one case, they became full. Sandbags were also placed over some houses in Tacloban City in Leyte and many individuals rushed into a grocery store in Alangalang to stock up on essential supplies.
Four hours after, Rai entered the PAR, PAGASA started to hoist Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal #1 for southeastern Eastern Samar and over the Surigao provinces, including the Dinagat Islands. This was further extended into some provinces in the Central Visayas and further south of Mindanao, until Agusan del Sur. Signal #2 were further placed for the Surigao provinces and further into some parts of Visayas as Odette further intensified into a typhoon, with Signal #1 spreading further into the remaining part of the region and Mimaropa and Southern Tagalog provinces. The storm's further intensification led to PAGASA raising the Signal #3 warning in some portions of Caraga and as Rai underwent rapid intensification, into eastern Visayas before Signal #4 was raised in those areas.
On December 15, militants of the New People's Army attacked troops evacuating residents in Surigao del Sur prior to the storm, killing three civilians. On December 16, the PAGASA raised the signal in western Bohol, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao to Signal #4. 9,720 thousand were evacuated as Typhoon Rai made landfall. Following Rai's impact, around 332,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in total as of December 17.
Vietnam
As Rai approached Vietnam after clearing the Philippines, officials held a meeting in which more than 243,254 houses across eight Vietnamese provinces were identified as "unsafe", while rice crops were harvested by farmers in preparation for the storm. Vietnam Airlines' flight operations were also halted due to the typhoon, while marine equipment, particularly fishing boats, were moved onto shores as a precautionary measure. Lý Sơn Island also prepared to evacuate over 7,800 individuals. Towing vessels were also readied in case of marine emergencies over the South China Sea. Medicine and food packs were also prepared while houses over the areas that are foreseen to be affected by Rai were secured. 305,000 individuals were also readied to be evacuated from Quảng Bình to Bình Thuận. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and rough waves were also forecasted.