Tension between Iran and the United States during negotiations over Iran's nuclear program intensified in January 2026 when Iranian security forces violently suppressed anti-government protesters.
The US began its greatest buildup of military assets in the region since the Iraq War in 2003. The US accused Iran of building up its nuclear and missile programs to threaten the United States and its allies. Iran accused the US of disinformation. Gulf states like Qatar predicted that escalations could severely harm the region. Negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program were held in February until the US and Israel commenced military strikes in Iran on 28 February 2026.
Negotiations
On 13 October 2025, US president Donald Trump stated that the United States was ready to make a deal with Iran; Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran would consider any proposal that was "fair and balanced".
Major points of contention remained, including US demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Prince Khalid bin Salman, brother of Crown Prince Mohammed and Saudi Arabia's defence minister, reportedly warned about the risks of not attacking Iran in a meeting with US officials.
On 6 February 2026, the US and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. The discussions were described as a "good start", and both sides agreed to continue. Senior US officials expressed skepticism about the prospects, while Iranian hardliners criticized the negotiations. Meanwhile, the Council on American–Islamic Relations accused Trump of manufacturing justifications for war similar to those for the Iraq War while Qatar Tribune asserted that the administration was falsely claiming that WMDs were being built in Iran.
Benjamin Netanyahu's presentation to Donald Trump
On 10 February, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, "increasingly alarmed" that negotiations would succeed, met with Trump to push for military action. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who had been urging President Trump for months to attack Iran, on February 11 gave an hour long presentation to Trump in the Situation Room making the urgent case for war. Netanyahu explained that victory would be near-certain: Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in a few weeks; Iran would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz or to strike U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf; and street protests against the Iranian government, with the aid of Israeli agents fomenting riots and an intense U.S./Israeli bombing campaign, would restart to usher in the collapse of the Iranian government. Trump said that Netanyahu's hard sell sounded good, and presidential advisors noted that Trump was deeply impressed by Netanyahu's presentation. Netanyahu had pitched a war against Iran to Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, claiming that the war would kill the Iranian senior leadership, incite regime change, and eliminate the Iranian military, but each of the previous presidents rejected Netanyahu's suggestion.
On 11 February, the 47th anniversary of the revolution was marked by pro-government rallies and anti-American rhetoric.
Negotiations progress
A second round of nuclear talks was scheduled in Geneva. Between 15 and 20 February, Iran increased its oil exports to three times the normal rate, and reduced its oil storage.
On 20 February, Trump issued a 10-day deadline. A third round of indirect talks took place on 26 February, while the sides remained far from agreement.
On 25 February, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a "historic opportunity" to reach a nuclear agreement with the US was "within reach". Araghchi emphasized on social media that diplomacy must be prioritized, while reiterating Iran's position against developing nuclear weapons and defending its right to peaceful nuclear technology.
Just before strikes began, on 27 February, Omani foreign minister Badr Al-Busaidi said a "breakthrough" had been reached and Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the IAEA; furthermore, Iran had agreed to irreversibly downgrade its current enriched uranium to "the lowest level possible". Al-Busaidi said peace was "within reach". Talks were expected to resume on 2 March.
On 28 February, following unsatisfactory results in the third round of negotiations, US and Israeli strikes began.
US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said Iran had begun talks by insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich uranium, rejecting a US proposal for zero enrichment, and even boasting that its 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium could produce 11 nuclear bombs. Diplomats with knowledge of the Iran talks said Witkoff undermined the negotiations by misrepresenting the key exchange, stating that the US negotiators misunderstood the Iranian proposal, including Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for several years and Iran's reasons for not trusting the US offer of nuclear fuel supplies.
Anti-government protests in Iran
Beginning in late December 2025, nationwide anti-government protests erupted in Iran, driven largely by economic decline, and the government's human rights abuses, with 5 million Iranians protesting. The protests, which included calls for regime change, became the largest since the 1979 revolution, including over 100 cities. The government responded with violent repression, including massacres, with the deadliest incidents occurring on 8 and 10 January 2026. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei personally ordered the killings with the approval of Iran's top state bodies. The violence was carried out mainly by IRGC and Basij forces, who used live ammunition, shotguns, pellet guns, machine guns, and drones. Witnesses reported blood-covered streets, while hospitals and morgues were overwhelmed.
Iran imposed the longest internet blackout on record to restrict reporting on the unrest and the killings, and disrupt communication among demonstrators. US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimated the death toll at 7,000. The Iranian government said the death toll was 3,117. According to HRANA, at least 26,541 people were detained. International Centre for Human Rights said the death toll was 43,000. During a news briefing on 27 February 2026, US President Trump stated that the Islamic Republic "killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters," a figure similar to the earlier estimated death toll of approximately 30,000 by two senior officials in the Iranian ministry of health.
The Shah's son Reza Pahlavi, became a symbolic figure for protesters, called for the end of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a democratic government. He Trump to carry out targeted strikes on Iran's paramilitary forces to weaken its capacity to suppress protests and hasten the government's collapse.
On 13 January 2026, Trump called on Iranians to "take over your institutions," adding that "help is on its way". He told Iranians to remember "the names of the killers and the abusers", warning that those responsible would "pay a very big price".
On 23 January, it was reported that Khamenei had taken shelter in a Tehran bunker, while global protests in support of Iranian demonstrators were planned and airlines canceled flights to the region; UN Human Rights commissioner Volker Türk condemned the killings, forced confessions, and lack of transparency, and called for an end to executions. Trump announced that a US "armada" was heading to the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers.
US buildup
Following 13 January, the US adopted a more assertive posture toward Iran while continuing to emphasize that it sought to avoid direct conflict. Senior officials issued statements outlining Washington's position. Trump reiterated that the US was prepared to respond to any actions perceived as threatening US personnel or regional stability, while also stating that military force would be used only if necessary.
On 13 February, Trump ordered USS Gerald R. Ford and its supporting warships to the Middle East.
Congressional debates
The US Congress debated the subject; some claiming that Iran's regional activities and domestic repression required stronger measures, recommending maintaining or expanding sanctions, increasing military readiness, and issuing clear warnings that attacks on US personnel or allies would result in a forceful response. They contended that a firm posture was necessary to counter destabilizing behavior by Iran.
Others advocated for a more restrained strategy, emphasizing the risks of miscalculation and the potential for unintended conflict. These members called for diplomatic engagement, transparency regarding the administration's decision‑making, and adherence to congressional oversight mechanisms related to the use of military force. Some raised concerns about the legal basis for military action, citing the need for updated authorizations and clear objectives. They claimed that sustained diplomatic efforts offered the best path to addressing long‑standing disputes.
No clear consensus emerged.
Diplomacy
Further US policy discussions after 13 January considered the security of American personnel and facilities across the Middle East. Pentagon officials emphasized that any attack on US forces would prompt a direct response, reflecting a broader effort to deter proxy activity without escalating into open conflict. Analysts noted that these measures were consistent with previous periods of heightened tension, during which the US sought to balance deterrence against miscalculation.
At the diplomatic level, the US intensified consultations with European and regional partners to coordinate messaging and assess potential avenues for de‑escalation. American diplomats engaged with NATO allies, Gulf Cooperation Council members, and other partners to reinforce shared concerns about Iran's internal repression and regional activities. These discussions aimed to maintain a unified international stance while exploring options for renewed dialogue. Despite these efforts, progress remained limited, as longstanding disagreements over sanctions, nuclear policy, and regional security festered.
Military buildup
On 13 January, senior national security officials met at the White House to review potential military options, including airstrikes, cyber operations, and targeted raids, as part of the administration's response. On 23 January, Trump announced that a US "armada" was heading to the Middle East.
The US military began repositioning assets to strengthen its regional posture. By 25 January, American aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Abraham Lincoln was heading to the Gulf, accompanied by additional Navy and Air Force assets. This movement was described as precautionary and was part of a broader effort to deter Iranian actions.
Throughout late January, Trump weighed expanded military options. Reports on 29–30 January indicated that he had been presented with plans, including possible commando operations targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. These deliberations paralleled ongoing concerns about Iran's internal unrest, which US officials cited as contributing factors to the heightened military readiness.
On 11 February, Israeli Prime Minister pitched a plan to US President Trump to assassinate Iran's top leaders in the expectation of producing favorable regime change. Despite skepticism from senior cabinet officials, including an intelligence assessment that the plan was "farcical", Trump would approve of the plan on 26 February.
On 14 February, Trump stated he would dispatch the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the Middle East with Carrier Strike Group 12 after completing operations in the Caribbean as part of Operation Southern Spear to support the USS Abraham Lincoln. Arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford marked a new height in deployment of US Navy assets to the region. US officials told Reuters that the US military was preparing for weeks-long sustained operations against Iran.
Administration national security officials met on 18 February to discuss the situation. Trump was briefed that day by Wirkoff and Kushner about their indirect talks with Iran from the day before.
Also that day, anonymous sources informed CNN that the US military was prepared to strike Iran as early as 21 February, although Trump had yet to make a final decision.