Event
opinion poll
In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place before 26 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
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Text from the Wikipedia article “opinion polling for the next German federal election”, available under CC BY-SA 4.0.
In the run-up to the next German federal election following the 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place before 26 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first vote"), or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining CDU/CSU as the Union. The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.
In the 2025 German federal election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the 21st Bundestag. Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a general name used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which was adopted by a party that is present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.
Some polls show CDU (not present in Bavaria) and CSU (only in Bavaria) separately without adding them up.
With the 2023 electoral reform fixing the number of seats to 630, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities. In the 2025 German federal election, 23 constituency winners were left out.
Text from the Wikipedia article “Opinion polling for the next German federal election”, available under CC BY-SA 4.0.