Event
opinion polling
In the run-up to the 2025 German federal election, which took place as a snap election on 23 February 2025, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Germany. Results of such polls are displayed below.
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Text from the Wikipedia article “opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election”, available under CC BY-SA 4.0.
In the run-up to the 2025 German federal election, which took place as a snap election on 23 February 2025, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Germany. Results of such polls are displayed below.
In the runup to the 2025 snap election, four of the eight main parties represented in the Bundestag were at risk of failing to pass the 5% electoral threshold, thus placing the actual outcome in significant uncertainty. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by challenger Friedrich Merz, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led by challenger Alice Weidel, and the Alliance 90/The Greens led by candidate Robert Habeck were all expected to obtain a voting volume that is significantly higher than the qualifying 5% threshold.
Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the "five percent hurdle" of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes. In 2022, this three-constituency rule was abolished, but was reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria and, in the 2021 German federal elections, only passed the threshold with 5.2% of second-ballot votes nationwide but won 45 out of 46 constituencies in Bavaria. As the CDU/CSU "Union" don't compete against each other and form one faction in the parliament, both "sister parties" are combined in most polls, but some show separate numbers.
Polling around 5% were the Free Democratic Party (FDP) that was part of the "Traffic Light Coalition" whose collapse led to the snap election, Die Linke, and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) which split off from The Left in 2023.
Also shown in the polls are the Free Voters (FW) which are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Only three other parties have managed to get approved in all states, and several others run in selected states. They are all summed up as "others".
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and American-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.
Text from the Wikipedia article “Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election”, available under CC BY-SA 4.0.