The Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (traditional Chinese: 第四次臺海危機; simplified Chinese: 第四次台海危机) is an ongoing conflict between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), with the PRC conducting several large-scale military exercises that encircled Taiwan. The PRC initiated military maneuvers around Taiwan on 2 August 2022, before launching their first major military drill on 4–11 August 2022, which was carried out by China in response to US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan amidst the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began months earlier. The drills involved live-fire drills, air sorties, naval deployments, and ballistic missile launches by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), marking China's biggest escalation in the region since the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996.
China's military drills were shows of force intended to deter what the PRC perceives as US meddling in its internal affairs, and to demonstrate Chinese military power in the region for both international and domestic audiences. The drills drew backlash from the G7 (Group of 7) nations. The live-fire drills observed during the seminal August 2022 military exercise were unprecedented in recent history, and took place in seven zones that surrounded the island's busiest international waterways and aviation routes. The first drill came to an end on 11 August 2022.
Since then, China has launched at least seven more major military drills targeting Taiwan, with PLA exercises, maritime patrols and even Coast Guard boardings around the Taiwan Strait becoming routine in what has been defined as "grey-zone tactics". The PRC also declared sovereignty over all airspace above and around the island, publicly renouncing the Davis line, an imaginary median line across the Taiwan Strait.
Background
Origins
In 1912, following the abdication of the Qing dynasty, the Republic of China was proclaimed. The unstable China entered a civil war in 1927 between Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang and Mao Zedong's Communist Party (CCP). Having begun as a rebel group, the CCP took control of Northeastern China before the conflict was suspended due to the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945). The civil war resumed after Japan's surrender with the CCP conquering most of modern-day mainland China and Mao proclaiming the People's Republic of China on 1 October 1949. Defeated, Chiang and over one million followers retreated to the island of Taiwan where the Republic of China never ceased.
The PRC argues that the island of Taiwan is an "inalienable part of China" and had been so since the period of the Three Kingdoms in the 3rd century BCE and that Taiwan was made a Chinese province in 1885 under Qing Emperor Guangxu. According to their claim, China had been stripped of Taiwan in 1895 owing to the First Sino-Japanese War, when it was forced to cede Taiwan and Penghu islands. Having the old ROC abrogated all the previous treaties with Japan in the 1943 Cairo Declaration, Taiwan should have been returned to China after the end of World War II. The Potsdam Declaration, signed in 1945 by China itself, ruled that the Cairo Declaration "should be carried out" and the ROC reobtained Taiwan on 25 October 1945. According to the PRC's The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era, being considered the legitimate successor of the ROC, the People's Republic should exert full sovereignty over Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that the Resolution 2758, ratified by the UN in 1971, recognized the PRC's succession and ruled out the possibility of there being two Chinas or one China and one Taiwan.
Conversely, the PRC government has never ruled Taiwan, and a number of major powers such as the United States do not recognize the PRC's claims over Taiwan. Since 1979, the US has maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity", neither endorsing China's claims over Taiwan nor recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation, and also refusing to state outright whether or not it would defend Taiwan militarily from a Chinese attack. However, the US is also bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself from an attack.
Incursions into Taiwan ADIZ
Since September 2020, the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan (MND) began reporting PLA sorties in its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) that flew beyond mainland territorial airspace, which are considered by analysts to be part of a salami-slicing/swarming strategy and show of force in the region. PLA aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on nearly 250 days in the 12 months between September 2020 and 2021, and the PRC's 2021 National Day celebrations saw a record number of 148 aircraft operating inside Taiwan's ADIZ over the course of four days. Most of these incursions, some of which included nuclear-capable bombers, took place in the southwestern part of the ADIZ following major events related to Taiwan's international space. In a biennial report released in November 2021, the ROC Ministry of Defense warned that the PRC had obtained the capacity to surround and blockade the island's harbors, airports, and outbound flight routes.
Escalation of tensions
On 9 January 2021, the US State Department under Mike Pompeo announced that it was Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship, drawing protest from the PRC.
On 10 June 2022, PRC Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned that "if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war", adding that it "would have no choice but to fight ... and crush any attempt of Taiwan independence" to safeguard "national sovereignty and territorial integrity." U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin responded by condemning China's "provocative, destabilising" military activity near Taiwan.
The week before Nancy Pelosi's visit, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call that Washington should abide by the One China principle and that "those who play with fire will perish by it". Biden told reporters that U.S. military officials believed Pelosi's visit was "not a good idea right now".
Timeline
August 2022
On 2 August, in response to Pelosi's visit, the People's Republic of China announced four days of military live-fire drills, in six zones that encircled the island on the busiest international waterways and aviation routes. In response to the announcement, ROC officials complained that the PLA's live-fire drills were an invasion of Taiwan's territorial space and a direct challenge to free air and sea navigation. That same day, China began conducting significant military movements around Taiwan. Two days later, on 4 August, China added a seventh zone for their military drill, and they launched a week of full-scale military drills around Taiwan. On 4 August, Taiwanese troops fired flares to drive away drones that flew above the Kinmen Islands. In a show of strength, the PRC deployed both a carrier group, as well as at least one nuclear submarine to the Taiwan Strait, with both the carrier group as well as the nuclear submarine participating in the live-fire drills. The PRC announced additional live-fire drills in both the Yellow and Bohai Sea, and China's Maritime Safety Administration announced five restricted areas in the Yellow Sea where exercises were to happen from 5 August to 15 August, as well as four additional zones in the Bohai Sea, where a month of PRC military operations were scheduled to happen starting from 8 August.
China fired 11 missiles into waters surrounding Taiwan during the live-fire drills, at least several of which were Dongfeng ballistic missiles, double the number fired in July 1995, during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Several missiles reportedly flew over Taiwan. Japan reported that five of the missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone, southwest of the Yaeyama Islands. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense, this is the first time ballistic missiles launched by China had landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone. The scale and intensity of these military exercises were significantly more severe than those of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, with the August 2022 drills having more military closure boxes, which were situated much closer to Taiwan and bracketed far more of the island, missiles fired directly over Taiwan for the first time, and more intensive military maneuvers.
While the PLA live-fire exercises were ongoing on 4 August, the US carrier strike group of the USS Ronald Reagan was conducting military operations in the Philippine Sea, including waters to the southeast of Taiwan. However, the US also cancelled the planned test launch of a Minuteman III missile, which was scheduled to happen during the same week the crisis started, in order to avoid escalating tensions with China further.
In response to the PRC drills, on 7 August, the ROC government announced that it would be conducting live-fire artillery exercises in Pingtung County which served to act as both retaliation to the recent PRC live-fire exercises around Taiwan and test combat readiness. At first, the PRC seemed to wrap up its military drills according to its original schedule published on 4 August. During drills held in Lienchiang County, flares fired by Taiwan's army started a fire. However, on Monday, 8 August, China's Eastern Theater Command announced it would continue its drills, which includes anti-submarine attacks and sea raid operations, without announcing an ending date. On 10 August, the Eastern Theatre Command announced an end to the military exercises, after they had "successfully completed various tasks and effectively tested the integrated combat capabilities of the troops". However, the Eastern Theatre Command also announced it would carry out regular "patrols in the direction of the Taiwan Strait."
April 2023 (Joint Sword)
On 4 March 2023, US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy announced that he had planned a meeting with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen in the U.S. After his announcement, the PLA threatened to take serious action against Tsai if she met with McCarthy.
Despite the threats, Tsai arrived in the U.S. on 5 April and met with McCarthy and other prominent U.S. lawmakers. The meeting took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
Hours after Tsai's meeting, a congressional delegation consisting of Representative Michael McCaul, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, arrived in Taipei in their third overseas visit. During their stop, McCaul stated: "we stand here today not as Republicans or Democrats, but as Americans in strong support of Taiwan". He also compared CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping with Adolf Hitler, a remark that sparked controversy. In response, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sanctioned McCaul.
On 8 April 2023, the PLA announced the start of three days of "combat readiness patrols" (战备警巡) encircling Taiwan, naming the exercises "Joint Sword" (联合利剑). That same day, Chinese state media released a video which mentioned several of the assets that would be used in the exercises, including PLA army rockets, the Navy's destroyer escort, a missile boat, the Air Force's J-series, fighter bombers, electronic warfare aircraft, and aerial tankers.
Following the announcement, the military dispatched several warships and dozens of aircraft—including Sukhoi Su-30s and Xian H-6 bombers—toward Taiwan. According to Taiwan's defense ministry, approximately 71 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The PLA later announced a live-fire exercise on waters near Pingtan Island. Taiwan released a map of the flight paths of four Chinese J-15 fighter jets to the east of the island, which analysts stated were likely from the Shandong aircraft carrier which was participating in the military exercises.
On 9 April 2023, Chinese fighter jets and war ships simulated strikes on Taiwan and simulated an encirclement of the island, prompting Taiwan to deploy its own warships, leading to a standoff between the two navies.
In response, on 10 April, the U.S. Navy sent one warship to the South China Sea. That same day, China announced the end of the initial drills, but stated they would continue combat training around Taiwan.
August 2023
In mid-August 2023, then-Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te transited through the United States during a diplomatic trip to Paraguay, in South America, making a stopover in New York City. In response, China initiated a day of large-scale military drills around Taiwan on Saturday, 19 August, with at least 42 Chinese aircraft and 8 ships detected in the space around Taiwan, and 26 Chinese fighter jets crossing the Median Line of the Taiwan Strait. The drill was smaller than the previous two Chinese military drills around Taiwan, however. According to the PLA, they carried out "omnidirectional encirclement" of Taiwan. While the PRC has long despised Taiwanese politicians from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), they were known to harbor a particular enmity for Lai Ching-te.