Cyclonic Storm Gulab and Severe Cyclonic Storm Shaheen were two tropical cyclones that caused considerable damage to South and West Asia during the 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Gulab impacted India and Pakistan, while Shaheen impacted Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Gulab was the third named storm of the 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, as well as the fourth named storm of the season after its reformation in the Arabian Sea as Shaheen. The cyclone's origins can be traced back to a low-pressure area situated over the Bay of Bengal on 24 September. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) named this new cyclone Gulab. On 26 September, Gulab made landfall in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. Following landfall, Gulab weakened inland, degenerating into a remnant low on 28 September. The system continued moving westward, emerging over the Arabian Sea on 29 September, before regenerating into a depression early on 30 September. Early on 1 October, the system restrengthened into a Cyclonic Storm, which was named Shaheen. The system gradually strengthened as it entered the Gulf of Oman. While slowly moving westward, the storm turned southwestward, subsequently making an extremely rare landfall in Oman on 3 October as a Category 1-equivalent cyclone. Shaheen then rapidly weakened, before dissipating the next day.
The system overall brought heavy rain and strong winds throughout India, Pakistan and the Middle East. Water-related damage was extensive, while communications were disrupted as winds downed many power lines. Hundreds of roads were closed in India. Heavy rainfall occurred in Karachi, Pakistan. Shaheen delivered extreme rainfall to Oman, causing flooding across a wide area of the country's northeastern governorates. Muscat saw particularly heavy flooding, which submerged cars and other low-lying objects.
Meteorological history
Gulab
On 24 September, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted a cyclone that was producing tropical storm-force winds located over the east-central Bay of Bengal, 211 nmi (391 km; 243 mi) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh, designating the system as 03B. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted the system as a low-pressure area at 03:00 UTC (08:30 IST); the system formed from a cyclonic circulation which persisted over the Gulf of Martaban. It was later upgraded to a well-marked low-pressure area at 11:00 UTC (16:30 IST), as it developed a cyclonic vortex at 06:00 UTC (11:30 IST). At 15:00 UTC (20:30 IST), the IMD upgraded it to a Depression, as the convection had further organized and the storm's convection, or thunderstorms, were moving in a curved manner. Favorable conditions, such as moderate to high sea-surface temperatures, the Madden–Julian oscillation being favorable for tropical cyclone development, and low vertical wind shear, allowed intensification. By 03:00 UTC the next day, the system was upgraded to a Deep Depression, as its convection further organized near the center. There was also the presence of warm moist air over the center of the system, which was conducive for strengthening. At 15:00 UTC (20:30 IST), the IMD upgraded it to a Cyclonic Storm, as its convection had become better-organized, with a defined central dense overcast, naming the system named Gulab. As it continued westward, the outer rainbands of Cyclone Gulab reached the coastal regions of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha, which indicated that it had started making landfall, at about 18:00 IST (12:30 UTC) on 26 September. By 17:00 UTC (10:30 IST), it had crossed 20 km (10 mi) north of Kalingapatnam. At 21:00 UTC (02:30 IST), the JTWC issued its final warning prior to landfall. Three hours later, the IMD downgraded it to a deep depression, as it had lost its energy after travelling over rough Indian terrain. It further weakened into a depression by 20:00 IST (14:30 UTC), as it entered the state of Telangana. It maintained its intensity as it travelled westward, until at 14:00 IST (08:30 UTC), when it weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area over west Vidarbha.
Shaheen
As Cyclone Gulab weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area over western Vidarbha and its surrounding areas, the IMD noted that its remnants may cross the Arabian Sea and regenerate into a tropical cyclone. On 29 September at 17:30 UTC (23:00 IST), the system crossed the Arabian Sea, before the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on the disturbance at 17:30 UTC (23:00 IST). At this time, the agency analyzed the system's environmental path as being conducive for tropical cyclogenesis, with warm sea surface temperatures of 30–31 °C (86–88 °F), enhanced outflow from an upper-level anticyclone and low wind shear. On the next day at 00:00 UTC (05:30 IST), while over the Gulf of Khambat, the IMD upgraded the system to a depression, with the agency designating the system as ARB 02. INSAT 3D satellite imagery at that time showed that the convection had increased near the storm's center. Later that day, at 18:00 UTC (23:30 IST), the IMD further upgraded the storm to a deep depression, while it was moving away from Gujarat; however, the JTWC continued issuing advisories on the system, referring to it as Gulab, with the agency reissuing advisories three hours later, with the system bearing maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (75 km/h; 45 mph).
On 1 October at 21:00 UTC (03:00 IST), the IMD reported that the system had further strengthened to a Cyclonic Storm, with the agency giving it the name Shaheen. The storm's spiral bands were seen wrapping along its obscured low-level circulation center (LLCC), while its Dvorak rating stood at T2.5 at that time. At 15:00 UTC (20:30 IST), the IMD further upgraded it to a severe cyclonic storm, as the clouds had become well-organized moving with a defined curved pattern. At 03:00 UTC (08:30 IST) the next day, the JTWC upgraded it to a Category 1 equivalent tropical cyclone, as it developed an eye; however, the system struggled to develop further, due to inadequate convection. By 06:00 UTC (11:30 IST), the cyclone developed a defined, but ragged eye. At 09:00 UTC (14:30 IST), the JTWC downgraded the cyclone to a tropical storm, but six hours later, the JTWC re-upgraded the system to a Category 1 tropical cyclone. Between 19:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC (00:30 IST and 01:30 IST) on 3 October, Shaheen made landfall over the northern Oman coast, making it possibly the only cyclone to make landfall there since 1890. At 21:00 UTC (02:30 IST), the JTWC issued its final warning for the storm, as it made landfall. After making landfall, Shaheen underwent rapid weakening, due to the dry landmass of the Arabian Desert. At 00:00 UTC (05:30 IST), Shaheen weakened to a cyclonic storm and three hours later it further weakened into a deep depression. Satellite imagery showed that the cloud mass had become disorganized. Shaheen rapidly weakened after landfall as it moved further inland, weakening into a depression on 4 October before degenerating into a well-marked low later that day.
Preparations
Gulab
Odisha
Due to Gulab, the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) of Odisha were put on alert and the IMD put the state into high alert. As of 26 September, over 30,000 individuals evacuated into safety as a result of the cyclone; this number further increased to 46,075 people as the storm further moved inland. Trains running through the area and neighbor Andhra Pradesh were also canceled.
Shaheen
Pakistan
Due to the brewing storm, which would become Shaheen, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued a tropical cyclone warning for the country on 30 September, with the agency predicting heavy rains and strong winds in the Sindh-Makran coastal areas. The agency also noted that sea conditions were risky for fishermen, advising them to avoid fishing activities until further notice. The education department of Sindh also canceled classes and activities in private and government institutions until 1 October. Karachi Commissioner Naveed Ahmad Shaikh recommended that all deputy commissioners should remove all dangerous panels and hoards on buildings and roofings from their respective districts as a precaution. He also warned people of the city to avoid venturing outside and on beaches due to the storm. There is also a ban that the commissioner imposed about going on to beaches that will last until 5 October. Karachi also announced a holiday on 1 October, as a result of the brewing cyclone.
Oman
Flights and traffic were delayed and rescheduled to and from the capital city, Muscat. Traffic was also halted between North and South Batina governorates as a result of Shaheen. 55 emergency shelters in Muscat were also prepared for the evacuees and authorities declared 3–4 October to be a work holiday due to the storm. The National Committee for Emergency Management (NCEM) also warned individuals within Shaheen's track to evacuate immediately; as of 3 October, 2,734 persons were now in government and other safety shelters to ride out the storm. 40-60 knot-winds and 200 to 500mm rainfall were also forecasted to impact the country. Its medical response were also heightened as the storm approached. A Cricket match between Oman and Scotland had to be abandoned due to Shaheen's potential impacts.
United Arab Emirates
The Dubai Municipality announced temporary closure of Hatta Parks and other community facilities, while schools in the area shifted to distance learning. The National Centre of Meteorology issued a code red alert off the eastern coast with a warning of 10-foot waves off-shore and wind speeds of 50 km/h (30 mph). A dust storm alert was also issued due to Shaheen on 4 October. Warning messages were broadcast in 19 languages, a strategy that involved more than 100 local and national entities. In Al Ain, residents were warned that they may have to briefly work from home, and have schools switch to distance learning temporarily. A large social media effort attempted to reach warnings and information about Shaheen as possible.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia was expecting to see torrential rainfall and thunderstorms from Shaheen, after it made landfall on Oman.
Impacts
Gulab
At least 20 total deaths have been attributed to Gulab, as well as ₹20 billion (US$271 million) in damages.
Odisha
Trees were uprooted and some houses were damaged. A landslide occurred on National Highway 26 near Ralegada, Koraput, causing traffic and disruptions; however, the district's administration quickly restored the road. An overnight downpour flooded a portion of National Highway 26 near a government hospital, but a team from the Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force (ODRAF) rescued the people inside. On 27 September, rainfall of 148 mm (5.8 in) was recorded at Pottangi, 89.4 mm (3.52 in) at Mahendragarh and 77.2 mm (3.04 in) at Mohana, Gajapati. No fatalities were reported.
Andhra Pradesh
Gulab also caused severe damages in the districts of Srikakulam and Vizianagaram in Andhra Pradesh. It caused disruption of communication and electricity due to traffic jams and trees downed. Vizianagaram was flooded with waterlogging due to a bad subterranean drainage system, with hundreds of trees and signs falling elsewhere. Heavy precipitation in Vizag led to regional floods and rainwater winds that led to various trees and saplings being uprooted. The Visakhapatnam Airport was also flooded by heavy rainfall. The downpour in the city became the second-wettest in modern records which stood to 282 mm (11.1 in), only took place behind Cyclone Pyarr of 2005. 2 fishermen in the state were killed while one was reported missing. About 102,000 acres (41,000 ha) of crop was destroyed by Gulab, resulting in ₹1 billion (US$13.6 million) of damage.
Telangana
Due to Gulab, the Godavari River's water level increased to the first mark on 30 September at 43.90 ft (13.38 m). An individual with a bullock cart drowned in Munneru stream on Kothagudem on 29 September, following heavy rains.
Shaheen
At least 14 deaths have been attributed to Shaheen.
Gujarat
As the system moved over the Indian state of Gujarat as the remnants of Gulab, heavy rains fell over the area, with Valsad and Kaprada both recording 6 in (150 mm) of downpour and Umarpada at 8.72 in (221 mm) on 29 September, with the former being flooded. Underpasses and roadways were also inundated in the area. As a result, 20 teams of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF's) were deployed in the whole state for possible continuous rains. 194 tehsils also reported torrential rainfall, with Palsana in Surat collecting 7 in (180 mm) of downpour. Over 100 water reservoirs were put under alert as a result. Street flooding and rivers increasing their capacities due to dams releasing water. Yellow alerts were placed in 20 districts while 6 places were under orange alert as of 29 September. The Indian Coast Guard also warned fishermen not to venture in the seas affected by the storm in at least three days. Visavadar recorded a 24-hour period rainfall of 10 in (250 mm) from 29 to 30 September, and the Gir Forest received 12 in (300 mm) of rain during the same period, which flooded the Sonarakh River in Junagadh.
Continued rains in the state forced the closure of 140 state roads, 207 roads in 20 districts and 14 state highways. Tithal Beach in Valsad were also closed. Nine more small irrigation dams overflowed in Kutch district as a result of three-day rains in the area while boats in the Arabian Sea were asked to return to ports for safety; 363 of them obeyed it while 474 remained in sea and were expected to return to ports by 4 October.