The COVID-19 pandemic in Iran has resulted in 7,627,863 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 146,837 deaths.
On 19 February 2020, Iran reported its first confirmed cases of infections in Qom. The virus may have been brought to the country by a merchant from Qom who had travelled to China. In response, the Government of Iran cancelled public events and Friday prayers; closed schools, universities, shopping centres, bazaars, and holy shrines; and banned festival celebrations. Economic measures were also announced to help families and businesses, and the pandemic is credited with compelling the government to make an unprecedented request for an emergency loan of five billion US dollars from the International Monetary Fund. The government initially rejected plans to quarantine entire cities and areas, and heavy traffic between cities continued ahead of Nowruz, despite the government's intention to limit travel. The government later announced a ban on travel between cities following an increase in the number of new cases. Government restrictions were gradually eased starting in April. The number of new cases fell to a low on 2 May, but increased again in May as restrictions were eased, with a new peak of cases reported on 4 June, and new peaks in the number of deaths reported in July. Despite the increase, the Iranian government stated that it had no option but to keep the economy open; the economy of Iran was already affected by US sanctions, and its GDP fell by a further 15% due to the COVID-19 pandemic by June 2020.
Some early outside estimates of the numbers of COVID-19 deaths are much higher than those from government sources, while the People's Mujahedin of Iran has consistently claimed a much higher death toll. Leaked data suggest that 42,000 people had died with COVID-19 symptoms by 20 July compared to 14,405 reported that date. The government has also been accused of cover-ups, censorship, and mismanagement. However, the World Health Organization says that it has not seen problems with Iran's reported figures, although a WHO official later said that due to limited testing in the early months, the number of cases reported in Iran may represent only about 20% of the real number until more tests could be conducted. Later increase in the number of cases in May was attributed to increased testing by the Iranian government. The official number of cases surpassed 200,000 with over 10,000 deaths recorded by June 2020. President Rouhani, however, estimated that 25 million may have become infected by July 2020, considerably higher than the official count. Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran account for around a quarter of all cases in the MENA region by mid-July.
Multiple government ministers and senior officials have been diagnosed as SARS-CoV-2 positive, as well as 23 members of the parliament (around 8% of all MPs) by 3 March. At least 17 Iranian politicians and officials had died from the virus by 25 March.
Background
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan, Hubei, China, that had been reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019.
The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than that for SARS in 2003, but the transmission has been much greater, creating a higher total death toll.
Timeline
Early unofficial cases (December–February)
According to physicians who spoke with American journalist Dexter Filkins and who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution, possibly the first case of Covid in Iran was in December in the city of Gorgan. The physicians complained to Filkins that in the coming weeks as the cases mounted and many of the patients started dying, hospital officials told staff "to keep quiet. 'We were given special instructions not to release any statistics on infection and death rates.'" Staff were "ordered not to wear masks or protective clothing. 'The aim was to prevent fear in the society, even if it meant high casualties among the medical staff.'" Officials were afraid fear of the pandemic would reduce voter turnout for the 21 February parliamentary election which would encourage "counterrevolutionaries". On 19 February, two days before the election, the deaths of two Iranians from the pandemic was made public, which meant, according to Iranian journalists Filkins talked to, "we reported deaths before we even reported any infections." By this time there were "hundreds" of ill patients in the hospital in Gorgan, and so many deaths "that a local cemetery hired a backhoe to dig graves".
Early cases (19–23 February)
On 19 February, two people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the city of Qom. Later that day, the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) stated that both had died. It was reported that the two cases had been triggered by a merchant with a travel history to Wuhan. On 20 February, three new cases were reported by the MOHME. Two of them were from Qom and one from Arak. On 21 February 2 deaths and 13 new cases were reported; seven cases were from Qom, four from Tehran, and two from Gilan province. On 22 February, the MOHME reported 10 more infected cases, bringing the total to 29, and two more deaths, bringing the total to eight. Eight of the new cases were from Qom and two from Tehran.
On 23 February, Health Minister Saeed Namaki said that one of those who died was a merchant from Qom who travelled regularly using indirect flights between China and Iran after direct flights were suspended between the two countries, and may have brought the virus from China.
Spread of COVID-19 (24 February – 19 March)
On 25 February, the Iranian government first told citizens that the U.S. had "hyped COVID-19 to suppress turnout" during elections, and that it would "punish anyone spreading rumors about a serious epidemic." A closed parliamentary session including Namaki and Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani was held. Body temperatures were tested prior to the meeting and three members of parliament, including Farahani, were requested to excuse themselves from the session and self-quarantine. All three attended the session. Farahani later spoke with journalists and gave television interviews wearing a mask and pair of gloves. The MOHME reported that there were 593 confirmed cases and 43 deaths as of 29 February.
On 1 March, the MOHME reported 385 new confirmed cases, 11 new deaths, and 52 more people who had recovered, bringing the total recoveries to 175. On 11 March, the MOHME reported 9,000 new confirmed cases, 354 deaths, and a total of 2,959 patients that had recovered. President Hassan Rouhani took the chair of the national taskforce on combating the outbreak, replacing the Health Minister at the request of lawmakers.
On 12 March, the MOHME reported 1,075 more new confirmed cases and 75 new deaths. They also reported that 3,276 people had recovered. Iran requested an emergency loan of US$5 billion from the International Monetary Fund for the first time since the Iranian Revolution to help combat the outbreak. (Previously the IMF had been described by the Islamic Republic as "a tool of U.S. hegemony".) However, the United States government opposed this request, according to Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. On 17 March, the MOHME reported 1,178 more new confirmed cases, 135 new deaths, and 5,389 people who had recovered in total. Sharif University of Technology published a study about possible outcomes of the pandemic. Three scenarios were announced: if people cooperated immediately, Iran would see 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths before the outbreak was over; if there was a medium amount of cooperation, there would be 300,000 cases and 110,000 deaths; and if people did not follow any guidance, it could collapse Iran's already strained medical system and there would be 4 million cases and 3.5 million deaths. On 19 March, the MOHME reported 18,407 total confirmed cases and 1,284 deaths.
Nowruz peak (20 March – 4 April)
On 20 March, 1,237 new infections and 149 deaths were reported. On 24 March, a new peak of 1,762 new cases was announced with 122 deaths. Rouhani said that the number of patients admitted to hospitals in different provinces as well as deaths due to the virus had decreased, which he took to be promising. Iran accused Médecins Sans Frontières of being spies, and a team they had sent to Iran to help had been ordered to leave the country.
On 25 March, with new cases surpassing 2,000 for the first time, the government warned of a "second wave" of infection. On 26 March, the MOHME announced that 2,389 more people had become infected, with 157 new deaths. On 27 March, daily new cases had increased to 2,926 with 144 deaths.
On 28 March, the number of new cases exceeded 3,000 for the first time (3,076), with 139 new deaths. On 29 March, 2,901 new cases and 123 new deaths were announced. Rouhani defended his government's response to the crisis and said that, according to health experts and doctors in Iran, "in some provinces, we have passed the peak [of the epidemic] and are on a downward trajectory". On 2 April, Rouhani warned that the country might have to fight the pandemic for another year. On that day, 3,111 new infections raised Iran's total to 50,468, and 124 new deaths brought the total to 3,160, while 16,711 of those hospitalised had recovered.
On 4 April, Iran announced the highest number of daily deaths so far, with 158 people having died the previous 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to 3,452. The total number of cases had reached 55,743. Iranian officials had expressed concerns that many had ignored rules to stay indoors and cancel travel plans.
After Nowruz (5 April – 2 May)
On 7 April, MOHME spokesman Kianush Jahanpur stated that the intensification of the social distancing policy had led to fewer new cases in recent days. Rouhani again asked people "to stay at home" and obey guidelines.
The Islamic Republic News Agency reported that "low-risk" business activities restarted in most of the country on 11 April, except for in Tehran, where they would restart on 18 April. Rouhani said, "Easing restrictions does not mean ignoring health protocols... Social distancing and other health protocols should be respected seriously by people." To follow the social distancing, "many government offices also re-opened, with two-thirds of their staff" on 11 April. Theatres, swimming pools, saunas, beauty salons, schools, universities, shopping centers, and restaurants, as high-risk businesses, did not resume, and cultural, religious, and sports gatherings were banned. According to health authorities, "many Iranians have ignored appeals to stay at home", which could lead to a second wave of illnesses.
On April, a video of a mortuary worker at a cemetery in Qom surrounded by dozens of bodies went viral. The man who filmed it was later arrested, with authorities telling the public that "all bodies were being treated with respect and in keeping with Islam."
Iranian officials stated that between 20 February and 7 April, at least 728 people had died in Iran due to Methanol poisoning after falsely believing that consuming the alcohol protected them from the virus.
The daily death toll from COVID-19 dropped below 100 starting 14 April. As the death toll dropped, the lockdown measures continued to be eased, and businesses designated as "low-risk businesses", which include many shops, factories and warehouses, were allowed to reopen in Tehran on 18 April.
On 2 May, the country reported 802 new cases, the lowest number of new cases in nearly two months.
Resurgence (3 May – 3 June)
After the lockdown measures were relaxed in April, cases of COVID-19 started to increase again in May, with new cases averaging 1,200 a day in early May.
Despite the rise in cases, all mosques apart from those in Tehran and some major cities were allowed to reopen on 12 May, and schools reopened the following week on 16 May.
An increase in cases in the southern provinces of Khuzestan province and Sistan and Baluchestan province led to the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions in mid-May there, with travel in and out of Abadan restricted. Health Ministry Spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said on 18 May that around one-fourth of Iran's daily cases were in Khuzestan, with Lorestan province, North Khorasan province, Kerman, Sistan and Baluchestan province and Kermanshah also showing significant rate of transmission of the virus.
The number of cases in the country surpassed 150,000 by 31 May. However, according to Hassan Rouhani, Iran was in "an acceptable situation" and "not even fragile", with the effective reproduction number (Reff) of the virus in the country at less than one.
New cases continued to increase in early June, with nearly 3,000 new cases reported on 1 June compared to 802 on 2 May. The government put the increase in cases down to increased testing, although health minister Saeed Namaki warned the citizens to follow guidance and social distancing rules or risk a second wave of the disease. The percentage of infections detected in tests however have increased from 11% on 29 May to 14% on 6 June.
New peaks (4 June – present)
On 4 June, 3,574 new cases of COVID-19 were reported. This figure surpassed the previous peak of 3,186 reported on 30 March. The worst affected province was Khuzestan, and the provinces of Hormozgan province, Kurdistan and Kermanshah were also given "serious virus warning". President Rouhani blamed a wedding party for contributing to the increase, and stressed that the country had no option but to keep the economy open.
On 14 June, the number of daily deaths reached over 100 for the first time in 2 months, with 107 deaths reported. The Ministry of Health warned of increasing infections in the rural provinces.
The total number of cases surpassed 200,000 on 19 June 2020, while the number of deaths recorded reached over 10,000 on 25 June.
On 29 June, Iran's Health Ministry reported a new record number of deaths in a day, with 162 having died the previous 24 hours. It surpassed the previous peak of 158 deaths reported on 4 April. Iran's health ministry, however, said on 30 June that the country is still in the first wave, and a second wave would not be considered to have started unless there were to be another rise in cases in provinces that already "had a significant peak" in the first few months of the outbreak. The biggest increase in cases that occurred in May and June was in other cities and border provinces such as Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Bushehr, West and East Azerbaijan, and Razavi Khorasan province, which have been recently designated code 'red' or highest risk areas, rather than in provinces that recorded a peak in the early months.