The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the current annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic basin. The season officially began on June 1, 2026, and will end on November 30, 2026. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on June 17 and impacted much of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. A little over a month later, Tropical Storm Bertha formed on the opposite side of the gulf, impacting nearly the entire United States's Gulf Coast along its path. In September, Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall close to the Texas–Louisiana border.
When Hurricane Isaias strengthened into the season's first hurricane, on October 8, the season tied the 1905 season for having the latest date for formation of the season's first hurricane.
Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the amount of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season.
According to NOAA and CSU, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as a median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 71.04–123.14 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 11, 2025, TSR released its first forecast for the season, expecting a near-normal season, with fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 125 units, close to the thirty-year average. TSR noted historically low certainty in this forecast, with the main factors being potentially moderate El Niño conditions arising in mid- to late-summer 2026, along with a reasonable certainty of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the season.
On April 7, 2026, the University of Arizona (UA) posted its forecast calling for an active season featuring twenty named storms, nine hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 155 units. Noted in its forecast were similarities to the 2023 season, namely the possibility of exceptionally strong El Niño conditions for the season, along with the 2026 SST outlook being only slightly lower than that of 2023. Two days later, CSU and TSR published their April forecasts, both calling for a slightly below-normal season. CSU forecasted thirteen named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes with an ACE index of 90 units, while TSR forecasted twelve named storms, five hurricanes, and one major hurricane with an ACE index of 66 units. This is due to the likelihood of robust El Niño conditions during the season, which will likely induce above-normal wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, despite some predictions calling for slightly above-average SSTs in the Atlantic. On April 16, The Weather Channel (TWC) issued its forecast, also calling for a below-average season with twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes due to the predicted El Niño. On April 21, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued its prediction of 7–13 systems with a best estimate of 10 systems. On April 22, North Carolina State University (NCSU) released its seasonal forecast, calling for an average season of 12–15 named storms, 6–9 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes while also forecasting near-average activity in the Gulf of Mexico and below-average activity in the Caribbean Sea. Also on April 22, Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) issued its forecast for the season, predicting it to be below-to-near-average, with 11–15 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes.
On May 5, the Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba (INSMET) issued a forecast calling for eleven tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes with one tropical cyclone occurring in the Gulf of Mexico, two in the Caribbean, and eight in the Atlantic. On May 21, forecasters at NOAA's National Weather Service predicted a below-normal hurricane season with 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes, factoring in expected development of an El Niño event, which would reduce the number of tropical systems, along with slightly above-normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker-than-average trade winds, which would favor development. On May 28, the Met Office released its prediction of nine named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (with ranges of 6–12, 3–7, and 1–3, respectively) as well as an ACE index of 72 units.
Mid-season forecasts
On June 10, CSU reduced its predicted forecast to eleven named storms, five hurricanes and only two major hurricanes with a total ACE of 70, citing the high chance of a moderate-to-strong El Niño developing by September, as well as cooler SST anomalies observed during the month of May. On June 14, UA reduced its predicted hurricane activities in each category compared to its April prediction, with thirteen named storms, five hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and a total ACE of 106, primarily because the tropical Atlantic SST had not increased as much as expected from March to May. By early July, Colorado State University further reduced its prediction to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, with anticipation for the ongoing moderate El Niño to intensify into a very strong El Niño by the climatological peak of hurricane season, resulting in very strong vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. Additionally, the university forecast well below-average chances for a direct hurricane strike on the Continental United States and the Caribbean.
On August 6, NOAA further reduced their forecast amid a lull in activity approaching the typical peak of the season. Numbers were reduced slightly to seven-to-thirteen named storms, two-to-six hurricanes, and zero-to-two major hurricanes, and less than 5% chance of an above average season. These predictions aligned with expectations that El Niño conditions that had begun in June would continue to stifle tropical cyclogenesis.
Seasonal summary
This season's ACE index, as of October 30, is approximately 19.7 units, as officially calculated by the NHC. This number represents the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000.
On June 17, Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the Texan coast, bringing flooding to the Gulf Coast of the United States and Mexico. An extended hiatus occurred after Arthur's dissipation, caused by the ongoing El Niño phase enhancing wind shear across the Atlantic along with Saharan dust. Wind shear in the Caribbean Sea during the month of July was the highest since records began in 1979. A month after Arthur dissipated, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Quiet conditions resumed until August 12, when Tropical Storm Cristobal formed well east-northeast of Bermuda. Later in the month, Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the main development region, while Edouard formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. On September 19, Tropical Storm Fay formed in the subtropical Atlantic, nearly becoming the first hurricane of the season before quickly weakening due to wind shear two days later. Consequently, the season has become the first since 1914 to not have a hurricane so late into the season, and the third since official records began in 1851. Gonzalo later formed on September 25 near Cape Verde while Hanna ended September, forming on September 28. On October 6, Isaias formed in the Bay of Campeche. On October 8, Isaias reached hurricane strength, which tied it with the 1905 season with the latest first hurricane in the year, and the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Milton in 2024.
Systems
Tropical Storm Arthur
On June 10, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring the Bay of Campeche for the development of a low-pressure area, partially associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina from the Eastern Pacific basin. On June 14, the low-pressure area moved inland over eastern Mexico. Conditions in the area were assessed as marginally favorable for development and, on June 16, the NHC started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 15:00 UTC. The following day at 15:00 UTC, the system acquired gale-force winds, as well as sustainable, albeit lopsided convection, and was named Tropical Storm Arthur by the NHC as it moved offshore from the Texas coast. A poorly-organized system, Arthur reached peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 40 kt (45 mph) as it underwent a center relocation, making landfall near Galveston, Texas as a minimal tropical storm before degenerating into a remnant low.
As of October 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. estimated losses to be at US$1.3 billion. Four fatalities have been attributed to Arthur. Across Northern Mexico, significant rains fell, inundating roads. River flooding occurred in Piedras Negras. In the United States, flash floods occurred in Texas. Some parts of Louisiana received almost 30 inches (800 mm) of rain. The return period for the rains is estimated to be 1-in-1,000 years. Dozens of tornadoes formed across the Gulf Coast in relation to Arthur.
Tropical Storm Bertha
An upper-level low and a surface trough formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on July 17. The following day, a broad low began to develop. The low then became Tropical Depression Two at 15:00 UTC on July 19 after developing a well-defined, low-level circulation. The system further organized over the next day, and the system was named Bertha with tropical-storm-force winds. Early on July 21, it attained winds of 60 miles per hour (97 km/h) and a pressure of 995 millibars (29.4 inHg). The storm then weakened, making landfall with winds of 45 miles per hour (72 km/h) close to the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana on July 22. On July 23, the center emerged offshore of southern Louisiana. It remained very close to the coastline and moved back inland near the Texas-Louisiana border the same day. It weakened to a tropical depression on July 24, soon degenerating to a trough over eastern Texas after losing a well-defined circulation.
Due to Bertha's shape, heavy rains from the storm were uncommon on the mainland. Instead, the system caused a significant amount of flooding through storm surge along with creating high surf across the Gulf Coast of the United States. In Florida, dozens of turtle nests were washed out or destroyed due to Bertha. Some roadways were inundated in Louisiana. As of October 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. estimated losses to be at US$400 million.
Tropical Storm Cristobal
On August 9, the NHC identified a trough of low pressure located well-offshore of the United States and west-northwest of Bermuda as having a low chance of development into a tropical cyclone. Over the next few days, the system gradually organized, eventually becoming sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical storm, receiving the name Cristobal on August 12. Cristobal's environment was quite unfavorable, with high wind shear, low SSTs, and dry air, causing the system to weaken to a tropical depression by August 13. Having lost convection, Cristobal became a post-tropical cyclone later that day.