The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average yet destructive Atlantic hurricane season. Despite having an average number of named storms and a below average amount of major hurricanes, it became the fourth-costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record, behind only 2024, 2005, and 2017, mostly due to Hurricane Ian. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. This year's first Atlantic named storm, Tropical Storm Alex, developed four days after the start of the season, making this the first season since 2014 not to have a pre-season named storm.
Two systems developed on July 1. Tropical Storm Bonnie formed and made landfall near the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border. It then crossed over into the Pacific basin, becoming the first to survive the crossover from the Atlantic to the Pacific since Hurricane Otto in 2016. Also, Tropical Storm Colin formed abruptly and made landfall in South Carolina, before quickly weakening and dissipating the next day. Following this activity, tropical cyclogenesis was suppressed across the basin for several weeks by a combination of increased wind shear and the presence of the Saharan Air Layer. This stopped all tropical cyclogenesis in August, the first season to do so since 1997, and the first during a La Niña. This pause in activity lasted sixty days, ending when hurricanes Danielle and Earl formed on September 1 and 3 respectively. Danielle become the season's first hurricane; the last season to have its first hurricane develop this late was 2013.
Activity then increased tremendously towards the end of September as four named storms formed in quick succession. Among them, Hurricane Fiona became the season's first major hurricane on September 20, which is about three weeks later than when the first one typically forms. As an extratropical cyclone it became the strongest storm in Canadian history, as measured by atmospheric pressure, and caused significant damage in Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Ian then became the second major hurricane of the season on September 27 and the only Category 5 of the season on September 28 and inflicted an estimated $113.1 billion in damage to western Cuba, Southwestern and Central Florida, and the Carolinas. Hurricane Julia formed in early October and became the second storm of the season to cross over into the Pacific basin intact after traversing Nicaragua, making this season the first to have more than one crossover system since 1996. The last storm in the season, Hurricane Nicole, made landfall on the coasts of the Bahamas and Florida. It was the first November hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Kate in 1985, and caused about $1 billion in damage in areas devastated by Ian six weeks earlier. Tropical cyclones during this season collectively caused at least 304 deaths and more than $117.7 billion in damage, making it one of the costliest seasons on record.
Most forecasting agencies anticipated a well-above average season due to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a favorable El Niño–Southern Oscillation pattern, limiting the chances of El Niño developing. While conducive conditions such as warmer sea surface temperatures and a La Niña came to fruition, the unfavorable wind shear pattern with drier air and Saharan Air Layer suppressed tropical cyclogenesis through most of July and the entirety of August, with the latter typically being among the most active climatologically.
Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended-range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units. The forecast also gave a 25% chance that the ACE Index would end up being around 170 units, and a 25% likelihood the likelihood that the index would end up around 80. TSR also issued an extended-range forecast on December 10, 2021. It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. This outlook had "large uncertainties".
In their April 6, 2022, forecast, TSR's number of named storms remained unchanged, while they slightly increased the number of major hurricane from three to four. On the following day, CSU issued their first extended-range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well-above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño. The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their first seasonal forecast on April 14, calling for 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units. North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
On May 9, Pennsylvania State University predicted 14.9 +/- 3.8 tropical storms, or a range of 11 to 19 named storms. On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above-average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively. The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes. TSR released another prediction on May 31 that was unchanged from its April 6 forecast: 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Mid-season forecasts
On June 2, CSU updated their extended-range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after a later analysis of the lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic. TWC's second outlook, released on June 17, slightly increased the number of named storms to 21 and hurricanes to 9, but left the number of major hurricanes at 4. On June 20, 2022, UA updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units. On July 5, TSR released their third forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This prediction was largely based on the persistence of the weak La Niña into the third quarter of the year. On July 7, CSU did not make changes to their updated prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. UKMO's updated forecast on August 2 called for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Two days later, NOAA and CSU each revised their activity outlook slightly downward, though both still predicted that the season would end up being busier than the 30-year average. The revisions were made in part because of the relative slow start to the season (as compared to the past few years), with only three short-lived named storms as of the start of August. The third and final TWC seasonal forecast, issued on August 18, decreased the number of named storms to 17, hurricanes to 7, and major hurricanes to 3.
Seasonal summary
Background
Officially, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ran from June 1 to November 30. A total of 16 tropical cyclones developed, 14 of which intensified into named storms. Of those, eight strengthened into a hurricane, while two systems reached major hurricane intensity. Thus, the season was near-average compared to NOAA's 1991–2020 mean of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The near-average number of named storms ended the record six-year streak of above-average activity in the Atlantic. A strong La Niña and slightly above-normal West African Monsoon season led to the mostly average activity. However, intense wind shear and the suppression of moisture in the atmosphere by the Saharan Air Layer led to an unusual mid-season cessation in tropical cyclogenesis that lasted nearly two months, with no named storms in the Atlantic between July 3 and August 31 for the first time since 1941.
Hurricanes Fiona and Ian inflicted historically significant impacts on certain areas. After Fiona caused a few billion dollars in damage in Puerto Rico, its remnants struck Nova Scotia as a powerful extratropical cyclone, becoming the costliest weather disaster on record in Atlantic Canada. Ian became both the costliest Florida hurricane and the third-costliest on record in the United States, behind only Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Additionally, 150 fatalities occurred in Florida, making Ian the deadliest tropical cyclone in the state since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. Collectively, the tropical cyclones of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season caused at least 304 fatalities and more than $117.708 billion in damage, making it one of the costliest seasons of all time.
This season's ACE index was approximately 94.6 units, which was 77% of the long-term (30-year) average of 123. This was the first season since 2007 to have an ACE value that is near-average. All seasons from 2008 to 2021 were either below or above-average.
Overall, NOAA Hurricane Hunters logged more than 582 flight hours while conducting 65 eyewall passages and deploying more than 1,700 scientific instruments, including dropsondes. Additionally, the Gulfstream IV-SP took off from the Cabo Verde Islands in August, becoming the easternmost hurricane hunter flight. NOAA also launched an Altius-600 for the first time, which recorded wind speed data on Hurricane Ian as it approached landfall in Florida. Crews of flights conducted by the National Ocean Service took thousands of aerial images of the destruction caused by Ian, which especially assisted with identifying pollutants and areas requiring extensive marine debris cleanup. NOAA's King Air and Twin Otter aircraft were also involved in a similar mission in the aftermath of Ian and Hurricane Nicole, logging more than 41 flight hours.
Early season activity
The 2022 season was the first since 2014 to not have a pre-season named storm. Activity began with the formation of Tropical Storm Alex on June 5, after several days of slow development while traversing the Gulf of Mexico and then moving over Central Florida. The storm peaked at near-hurricane strength before becoming extratropical on the following day over the Central North Atlantic. On July 1, Tropical Storm Bonnie formed in the Southern Caribbean Sea and made landfall shortly thereafter near the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border. It then crossed over into the Pacific basin a day later, the first storm to do so since Hurricane Otto in 2016, where it would become a Category 3 hurricane. Also on July 1, a low-pressure system off the U.S. Atlantic coast near Savannah, Georgia, abruptly organized into Tropical Storm Colin, a short-lived storm that dissipated the next day inland over northeastern South Carolina. Tropical cyclogenesis then ceased for almost two months, with 2022 becoming the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August. A disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico was briefly designated as a potential tropical cyclone during the month, but it did not organize into a tropical cyclone before moving inland over Northeastern Mexico.
Peak to late season activity
Tropical activity ultimately resumed with the formation of Tropical Storm Danielle over the central Atlantic on September 1. The storm intensified into a hurricane the following day, the latest first hurricane since 2013. It remained nearly stationary far to the west of the Azores for several days before moving northeastward and becoming extratropical on September 8 without affecting any land areas. Additionally, a slow-developing disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles became organized and developed into Tropical Storm Earl late on September 2. It strengthened into a hurricane, tracked east of Bermuda, fluctuating between Category 1 and 2 intensity, and then became extratropical near Newfoundland on September 10. Four days later, Tropical Storm Fiona formed in the Central Atlantic. Fiona eventually became a hurricane, striking both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before becoming the season's first major hurricane as it passed by the Turks and Caicos Islands on September 20. That same day, Tropical Storm Gaston formed over the Central Atlantic and moved through the Western Azores. Fiona strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane as it passed west of Bermuda and transitioned into a powerful extratropical cyclone on September 23, just before striking Nova Scotia. That same day, Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Caribbean Sea and Tropical Depression Ten formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic, marking the first time since 2020 that four tropical cyclones were active simultaneously in the Atlantic basin.