Snap presidential elections were held in Kazakhstan on 9 June 2019 to elect the President of Kazakhstan following the resignation of long-term President Nursultan Nazarbayev in March 2019. This was the sixth presidential election held since Kazakhstan's independence. The elections were not free nor fair, and were widely denounced as a sham. Acting president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Nur Otan won the election.
Originally scheduled for December 2020, when President Nursultan Nazarbayev's fifth term was set to expire, the snap elections were announced on 9 April 2019, shortly after acting president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev assumed office following Nazarbayev's resignation amidst anti-government protests.
Nominations took place following the announcement of elections. Nine candidates expressed their interest, of which seven registered, making it the election with the largest number of presidential candidates in Kazakhstan's history. The nominees from political parties and public associations were acting president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who became a candidate for the ruling Nur Otan after endorsement from his predecessor Nazarbayev, Amirjan Qosanov from the Ult Tagdyry movement, Jambyl Ahmetbekov from the Communist People's Party, Toleutai Raqymbekov from the Auyl People's Democratic Patriotic Party, Amangeldi Taspihov from the Federation of Trade Unions, Sadibek Tügel from the Uly Dala Qyrandary and Dania Espaeva from Aq Jol, the first Kazakh woman to officially participate in elections.
Campaigning was focused on the issues of agriculture, environment, labour rights, social benefits, the market economy, the legacy of Nazarbayev's policies and the current political system, in which presidential candidates proposed solutions from further democratization and decommunization to the development of the nation's values and agricultural industry.
Tokayev's victory was marked as the first peaceful transition of power in Kazakhstan's history, despite challenges resulting from the political unrest that took place in the streets of Almaty and Nur-Sultan. According to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), "significant irregularities were observed on election day, including cases of ballot box stuffing, and a disregard of counting procedures meant that an honest count could not be guaranteed." "There were widespread detentions of peaceful protesters on election day in major cities", said the OSCE in their Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions.
On 12 June 2019, Tokayev was sworn as president during a ceremony at the Palace of Independence in the capital, Nur-Sultan. From there, he pledged to protect the interests of every citizen and consider any proposals and initiatives that would be put forward by political and community leaders.
Background
Re-election of Nazarbayev and post-economic crisis recovery
President Nursultan Nazarbayev was elected for a fifth term in the 2015 Kazakh presidential election in the midst of an economic crisis. From there, he pledged economic reforms, political stability, inter-ethnic accord and social cohesion. Nevertheless, the Kazakh economy continued following the downward spiral caused by the 2010s oil glut and devaluation of the tenge to the point of Nazarbayev calling for a snap parliamentary election in January 2016 amidst fears of another oil price crash which would have severely impacted the economy. By the end of that year, Kazakhstan's GDP reached its lowest point of $137.3 billion with a 1.1% growth rate, making it the worst performance since 1998.
However, things took a drastic turn the following year mainly due to the increase of the price of oil and the launch of the Kashagan Field which increased the output production of petroleum. Other economic activity such as in manufacturing, agriculture, transport, and trade sectors also experienced a regrowth. By the end of 2017, the GDP growth rate In Kazakhstan amounted to 4.1% and since then has remained stable from there.
Speculations of post-Nazarbayev succession
In September 2016, Nazarbayev reshuffled several cabinet positions and appointed his daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to the post of Deputy Prime Minister, believed to be due to Uzbek President Islam Karimov's unexpected death who had no clear successor which led to a speculation of Nazarbayev's potential moves in having his daughter succeed him. In a November 2016 interview to the Bloomberg News, Nazarbayev said that he had no plans in handing over his succession to his children and mentioned that any transfer of power in the country is carried out by the Constitution.
In May 2018, the Parliament approved a bill which granted Nazarbayev life tenure as Chairman of the Security Council of Kazakhstan. This granted him the control of the country's policies without holding the presidential office. Chair of the Senate Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in an interview with the BBC in June 2018, expressed doubts that Nazarbayev would seek another term in the election that would have been held in 2020. This created speculation that Nazarbayev was preparing to leave the presidency.
Speculation on Nazarbayev's early resignation rearose on 4 February 2019, when he appealed to the Constitutional Council in regards to the provision on the early termination of the president's powers. Nazarbayev clarified that the appeal was an "absolutely routine issue", claiming that he was repeatedly asked on the provisions and that his appeal to the council was simply an explanatory issue. As a result, Nazarbayev urged public calm.
On 19 March 2019, Nazarbayev announced his resignation, stating that Senate Chair Kassym-Jomart Tokayev would take over as acting president for the remainder of his term. However, on 9 April 2019, Tokayev announced that a snap election would be held on 9 June to avoid "political uncertainty."
Electoral system
The President of Kazakhstan is elected using the two-round system; if more than two presidential candidates are on the ballot and no-one receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates no later than two months after the first round is held. If the presidential election is declared null and void or has not determined the winner, then the Central Election Commission (CEC) may schedule a re-run election no later than two months after an initial vote is held.
According to Article 41 of the Constitution, a citizen of Kazakhstan by birth must be at least 40 years old, have a minimum of five years of experience working in public service or elected positions, be fluent in the state language and have been a resident of Kazakhstan for the last 15 years to be elected and serve as president. The right in nominating presidential candidates under Article 55 of the Constitutional Law "On Elections" is reserved only for registered republican public associations.
Article 51 of the Constitutional Law "On Elections" establishes the first Sunday of December as a general date for the presidential election. Therefore regular elections would have taken place on 6 December 2020 as Nazarbayev's five-year elected term from 2015 was set to end by then.
Candidates
Nine candidates applied to the Central Election Commission to contest the elections. A record seven were registered to run, whilst one candidate withdrew and one was disqualified for not possessing sufficient knowledge of the Kazakh language.
A newly adopted law in 2017 made any contesting candidate to be required to have a higher education and five years of experience in the public service or in elected public office as well as an active participations in management of the affairs of the state directly and through their representatives, apply personally, and send individual and collective appeals to state and local governments.
Registered candidates
Candidates were required to collecting signatures of at least 1% of voters, equally representing at least 2/3 of the regions, cities of republican significance and the capital Nur-Sultan. As of 1 January 2019, 11,814,019 citizens were included by the Central Election Commission (OSK) in the voter registration, thus 118,140 signatures would be needed to be collected in support of each candidate. The registration of proxies, as well as the procedure for verifying the authenticity of signatures with the participation of passport authorities, is carried out by Territorial Election Commissions.
To be registered as presidential candidates, the nominees will need to submit to the CEC a certificate of the state revenue authority on the submission of the income and property declaration by him/her and the spouse as of the first day of the nomination month, i.e. on 1 April 2019, as well as a medical report on the state of his/her health. The candidate registration will last until 6:00 pm May 11 of this year. The candidate registration can be canceled by the CEC in case of detection by the state revenue authorities of the unreliability of information on income and property in the submitted declarations.
Unsuccessful nominees
- Talgat Yergaliyev (Union of Builders of Kazakhstan), a former Member of the Mazhilis. Withdrew his candidacy.
- Jumatai Aliev (Halyq Demografiasy), Rector of Central Asian University. Rejected due to a failed Kazakh language test.
Nominations
Nomination of presidential candidates were held from 10 April to 28 April 2019. According to the Article 55 of the Constitutional Act "On elections", only registered public associations and political parties have a given right to nominate their candidates.
The decision on nomination is taken by a majority of votes from the total number of members of the highest body of the republican public association. The compliance of a candidate with the requirements of the Constitution and the Constitutional Act "On Elections" is carried out by the Central Election Commission within five days from the date of submission of an extract from the protocol of the meeting of the highest body of the republican public association after nominating the candidate, together with the candidate's consent to run for presidency and a document confirming that the candidate has paid the electoral contribution.
Uly Dala Qyrandary (UDQ)
On 17 April 2019, the public association Uly Dala Qyrandary nominated its co-chair and writer Sadibek Tügel for presidency. The nomination received no cover from the media and instead were a series of social media posts. Tügel pledged to promote ideas of spiritual revival and raising of Kazakh culture and focus on the importance of improvements in the socio-cultural sphere that were made possible under Nazarbayev's presidency.
According to political analysts Orazğali Selteev, he described Tügel as the "1% candidate" (referring to how much vote share he'd get) whose a "harmless participant, with no pretensions."
Nur Otan (NO)
Shortly after President Nursultan Nazarbayev's resignation, some talks arose that Nazarbayev's daughter, Dariga, who succeeded Tokayev as the Chair of the Senate, was expected to run in the election as a way to ensure her father's legacy. However, Dariga stated that she had no plans in joining the race. Other possible contender included Imangali Tasmagambetov.
On 23 April 2019, the 19th Nur Otan Extraordinary Congress was held in Nur-Sultan which was attended 1,500 persons, including the 600 delegates. From there, Party Chairman Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed to nominate acting president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for candidacy, calling him a "well-deserved candidate" that would follow "politics of friendship" and "equal rights of Kazakh citizens". Tokayev was unanimously chosen to be the nominee. From there, Tokayev spoke at the nomination congress, where he praised Nazarbayev and pledged to work hard for the prosperity of the nation. That same day, Tokayev appealed to the Constitutional Council for the clarification on the term of residence in Kazakhstan per electoral requirements during his time of work overseas as diplomat. On 25 April, the Council ruled that the 15-year period of residence also counts the periods of residence outside for Kazakhstani citizens who belong to the staff of the governmental diplomatic service.
- Kassym-Jomart Tokayev – Acting President of Kazakhstan since March 2019, Kazakh Senate Chairman from 2007 to 2011, 2013 to 2019, Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1994 to 1999, 2002 to 2007, Prime Minister of Kazakhstan from 1999 to 2002.
- Dariga Nazarbayeva – Chairman of the Kazakh Senate (2019–2019), Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (2015–2016), Deputy Chairman of the Mazhilis (2014–2015), MP of Mazhilis (2004–2007, 2012–2015), Asar party leader (2003–2006).
- Imangali Tasmagambetov – Kazakh ambassador to Russia (2017–2019), Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (2016–2017, 2000–2002, 1995–1999), Minister of Defence (2014–2016), Äkim of Nur-Sultan (2008–2014), Äkim of Nur-Sultan (2004–2008), State Secretary of Kazakhstan (2004), head of Presidential Administration of Kazakhstan (2003–2004), 5th Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (2002–2003), Äkim of Atyrau Region (1999–2000).
Federation of Trade Unions (QRKF)
At the meeting of the executive committee of the Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan (QRKF) was held at which the issue of nominating candidates for participation in the elections from the organisation was discussed. The members of the executive committee approved and submitted for consideration by the General Council on 23 April 2019 two candidates: former Mazhilis MP Muqtar Tinikeev and QRKF deputy chairman Amangeldi Taspihov.
The following day on 24 April 2019, the QRKF General Council nominated Taspihov as presidential candidate after Tinikeev recused himself, due to his lack of knowledge of Kazakh per registrational requirement.
Ak Zhol Democratic Party (AJ)
In regards to snap presidential elections, the Ak Zhol Democratic Party (AJ) Chairman Azat Peruashev expressed Nazarbayev's intent in letting Tokayev serving his unfinished term as "a normal international practice" that "corresponds to the best models of democratic states." From there, he used example of U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson whom served as president after the assassination of John F. Kennedy before being elected. Nevertheless, Peruashev thanked Tokayev for his decision to hold snap elections, noting his commitment for it to be "transparent and fair".
Amongst the contenders from the party, Talgat Erğaliev and Dania Espaeva were seen as the possible frontrunners. Peruashev refused to join the race, stating that the need for the Ak Zhol to have new faces and competition which would encourage the development of the party.