The 2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2010, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent U.S. senator Arlen Specter ran for reelection to a sixth term but lost in the Democratic primary to U.S. representative Joe Sestak. Republican nominee Pat Toomey won the general election over Sestak.
Toomey had previously lost the 2004 Republican primary to Specter narrowly, announced on April 15, 2009, that he would challenge Specter again. Specter soon switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party, citing his disagreement with the increasingly conservative positions of his former party. Specter faced U.S. representative Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, which was characterized by attacks between the two Democratic candidates, was one of the most-watched races of the 2010 election cycle. Sestak ultimately defeated Specter in the May 18 primary with 53.9 percent of the vote. Toomey easily defeated Peg Luksik for the Republican nomination with 81.5 percent of the vote.
Toomey defeated Sestak in the general election on November 2 with 51 percent of the vote. Toomey's winning margin made this the third-closest race of the 2010 Senate elections, behind only the elections in Illinois and Colorado.
Republican primary
Background
Pat Toomey, a Republican who had represented the Lehigh Valley-based 15th congressional district, challenged Specter in the Republican primary for the 2004 Senate election, in which the conservative Toomey tried to portray Specter as too liberal. Although Toomey ultimately lost, he came within 17,000 votes (less than two percent of the vote) despite the Specter's strong name recognition and support from party leaders. In an interview with The Hill on December 1, 2008, Toomey said he was considering a 2010 challenge against Specter, whom he said was "significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004." Toomey claimed many liberal and moderate Republicans had abandoned the party to join the Democratic Party in the 2008 presidential primary, eliminating many of Specter's core constituents from the closed primary.
As this disastrous recession worsens, I have become increasingly concerned about the future of our state and national economy. Unfortunately, the recent extraordinary response of the federal government – more corporate bailouts, unprecedented spending and debt, higher taxes – is likely to make things worse. I think we are on a dangerously wrong path. Pennsylvanians want a US Senator focused on real and sustainable job creation that gets our economy growing again. That is why I am considering becoming a candidate for the U.S. Senate.
— Pat Toomey, in a March statement
In January, Toomey announced he would likely not run for Senate and was instead seriously considering a bid for governor in 2010. Peg Luksik, an anti-abortion activist from Johnstown who had previously lost bids for governor in 1990, 1994, and 1998, announced her candidacy for the Republican primary in March after Toomey assured her that he did not plan to run. Although some questioned her lack of experience and limited knowledge of foreign affairs, Luksik said she planned to oppose big government and excessive spending.
However, Toomey reversed his position again after Specter voted for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, claiming he believed Specter was supporting federal government bailouts and spending plans that were "taking the country on a dangerously wrong path." In discussions with potential supporters for a gubernatorial campaign, dozens of Pennsylvanians urged Toomey to challenge Specter. In early March, Toomey began to privately assure supporters he would run against Specter, and during his March 28 keynote address to the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference in Harrisburg, he announced, "It's very likely that very soon I will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate." The audience gave him a standing ovation. Luksik was present and said she did not feel betrayed by the surprise announcement but planned to stay in the race. She added, "I understand these two men have a long, personal and rather vindictive history, and there's a real desire for the two of them to go and hit each other with sticks. I get that. I have five sons." Some observers speculated that Luksik and Toomey could split the conservative vote, helping Specter secure victory, but Luksik said she would resist any efforts by conservative Republicans to pressure her into withdrawing.
Candidates
Nominee
- Pat Toomey, former U.S. representative from Allentown and candidate for Senate in 2004
Eliminated in the primary
- Peg Luksik, conservative activist and candidate for governor of Pennsylvania in 1990, 1994, and 1998
Withdrew
- Arlen Specter, incumbent senator since 1981 (switched parties; ran in Democratic Party primary)
Declined
- Tom Ridge, former U.S. secretary of Homeland Security, governor of Pennsylvania, and U.S. representative from Erie
Campaign
Specter's party switch
Toomey formally announced his candidacy on April 15, 2009, Tax Day, via a video on his website, and stepped down as head of the anti-tax political organization Club for Growth to concentrate on his campaign. A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll released the previous month had indicated Toomey would defeat Specter by 14 percentage points in a two-man race if the primary were held that day. That same poll, however, found three out of four Republicans didn't yet know enough about Toomey to form an opinion about him. Some Republicans expressed concerns that if Toomey defeated Specter in the closed Republican primary, he would be a weaker candidate in the general election and the party could risk losing the Senate seat to the Democrats. Toomey rejected such concerns, pointed to his two successful reelections in the Democratic-leaning Lehigh Valley congressional district as proof he could win votes from the opposing party. Rumors began to circulate that Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a Specter supporter, had asked Toomey to drop his candidacy, but Toomey denied those claims. Nevertheless, Toomey received some early support from conservatives like Jim DeMint, the senator from South Carolina who endorsed Toomey and donated thousands of dollars to his campaign.
Starting in April, Specter made the rare move of starting to run television advertisements more than a year before the primary election, linking Toomey's background as a Wall Street banker and support of credit default swaps to the economic crisis. While Toomey criticized Specter as a liberal who consistently sided with the Democratic majority, Specter stressed that if Toomey won the primary, he would lose the general election and give Democrats a 60th seat in the Senate, which would allow them to suppress Republican filibusters. In an interview on Morning Joe, Specter said, "If Mr. Toomey is the nominee, you can be sure he'll lose. He's to the right of Rick Santorum. Santorum lost by 18 points, spent $31 million and was a two-term incumbent." Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said of the expected primary match-up, "Republicans will have to decide whether they want to hold the seat or make a statement about issues and ideology."
On April 28, 2009, however, Specter announced he was leaving the Republican Party and becoming a Democrat, claiming he disagreed with the increasingly conservative direction the party was heading in and found his personal philosophy was now better aligned with the Democratic Party. Although Specter said his decision was made primarily based on principle, he admitted it was also partially due to his poor chances of beating Toomey in the Republican primary: "I have traveled the state and surveyed the sentiments of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania and public opinion polls, observed other public opinion polls and have found that the prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak." Toomey became widely considered the favorite to win the Republican primary as a result of Specter's defection. Peg Luksik said of Specter's switch, "It is clear that Arlen Specter stands with President Obama on a host of issues and with this decision, has gone home to the Democratic Party."
Republican primary
With Specter's departure from the primary, some speculated that a less conservative candidate than Toomey was needed to defeat Specter in the general election, since the state had previously supported Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election. John Cornyn declined to immediately endorse Toomey and Senator Orrin Hatch, vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said of him, "I don't think there is anybody in the world who believes he can get elected senator there." Names of other potential Republican candidates began to be floated, like Congressman Jim Gerlach, Lieutenant Governor Joseph B. Scarnati, and State Senate Majority Leader Dominic F. Pileggi, none of whom ruled out running. Some, like Senator Lindsey Graham and Republican State Committee Chairman Robert Gleason, suggested former governor Tom Ridge might be a suitable candidate. Ridge began to seriously contemplate a run, and Quinnipiac University polls indicated Specter held a projected lead over Ridge of only three percentage points, compared to 20 points over Toomey.
Even before Ridge made a final decision, however, conservative bloggers began criticizing Ridge's moderate positions and support for abortion rights. Political opponents also circulated e-mail messages questioning Ridge's residency eligibility because, although he still voted in Pennsylvania, he lived in Chevy Chase, Maryland. On May 7, Ridge announced he would not run in the primary, claiming he preferred to continue supporting the Republican Party by promoting causes as a private citizen. Some felt Ridge's decision not to run ended the Republican Party's best chance to win the seat from Specter. But Toomey expressed confidence he could beat the incumbent senator, claiming Democrats would find him difficult to trust after seeing the way he abandoned the Republicans. Toomey said he "expected to beat Arlen Specter soundly in the Republican primary, but I had no idea I would drive him clear out of the party." A Quinnipiac University poll released on May 28 projected Toomey now trailed Specter by nine percentage points, a smaller gap than Specter's 20-point lead from a May 4 survey.
Although Toomey anticipated that other candidates would enter the race, the Republican primary remained a two-way race between him and Luksik. State Senator Jane Orie, from the North Hills area of Pennsylvania, briefly considered entering the race but announced on July 13 that she would not run because she wanted to concentrate on the state budget. The National Republican Senatorial Committee announced on July 14 that it was endorsing Toomey, even though the group previously helped Specter defeat Toomey in 2004. It was considered a key endorsement expected to help improve fund-raising efforts for Toomey, who had already raised $1.6 million in the previous three-month quarter. By July 22, polls indicated that Specter's projected lead over Toomey had nearly disappeared, as the Senator now led him only 45-44 percent. That same poll showed Toomey led Luksik by 47 percent to 6 percent, a margin so large that media outlets predicted Luksik stood little chance of overcoming him; the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said Luksik was "not considered to be a stiff challenge". By August, Toomey had an even greater advantage in the polls, 12 points, over Specter.
Following an e-mail exchange with the Democratic challenger Joe Sestak about health care, Toomey agreed to an unorthodox proposal by Sestak to hold a joint town hall about the issue, which was held September 2 at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. Specter was not invited to participate, and political pollster G. Terry Madonna described it as an "informal pact" between Sestak and Toomey to weaken their joint rival, something the two men denied. Commentators suggested Toomey was willing to help Sestak at this stage of the race because he preferred Sestak as a general election opponent rather than Specter, who could possibly steal Republican and Independent voters from Toomey. By October, Toomey had raised a total of $3.1 million for the race, but spent $861,000 in the past three-month quarter as he traveled across the state for his campaign. In contrast, Luksik raised less than $100,000 from June to October. Also in October, Toomey was endorsed by former Massachusetts Governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who called Toomey the "man for the job" and pledged to help him raise funds.
Late campaign
We're going to win this election because when you give people a choice between prosperity and stagnation, they'll choose prosperity. We're on the side of the people who pay all the bills. I believe they will choose to return to the principles of this great party.
— Pat Toomey in February 2010