The 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2005, to elect the governor of Virginia. Democratic lieutenant governor Tim Kaine defeated Republican former attorney general Jery Kilgore. Incumbent Democratic governor Mark Warner was ineligible to seek re-election to a second term due to the state's prohibition on consecutive gubernatorial terms.
Primary elections were held on June 14, 2005, in which Kaine and Kilgore won with little opposition. Governor Warner maintained high approval ratings in the state with 70–80% job approval — Kaine consistently associated himself with him. Kilgore ran a heavily aggressive campaign by attacking Kaine as an "out-of-touch liberal" who supported tax increases and opposed the death penalty. Kilgore lead in the initial polls though his aggressive campaign strategy failed to resonate, and Kaine had become favored in polling by Election Day.
Virginia was considered competitive throughout the election, while the state's historical precedent of voting the party not in the presidential office since 1977 was noted as an important factor in the campaign. The election was largely viewed as a referendum on President Bush's second term ahead of the 2006 midterms by political pundits. Bush's late appearance in the state was viewed by both political parties as an attempt to potentially motivate their voters on Election Day. Warner's popularity and Kaine's focus on affordability were seen as the main factors for Kaine's win.
This is the most recent election in which the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of opposite parties were elected. This is the last gubernatorial election when Accomack County, Buchanan County, Fluvanna County, Henry County, King and Queen County, Nottoway County, Rappahannock County, Westmoreland County and the independent cities of Buena Vista and Lynchburg have voted Democratic for governor.
Democratic primary
On March 16, 2005, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine formally launched his campaign for governor though he was widely anticipated as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination before his official announcement. From July 1 to December 31, 2004, Kaine raised $2.1 million with $3.2 million to spend in the campaign. In addition, he received $1.5 million in financial support from the Democratic National Committee. He did not receive opposition in the primary, becoming the Democratic nominee by default.
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Kaine, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2002-2006) and former mayor of Richmond (1998-2001)
Republican primary
On January 17, 2005, Republican Jerry Kilgore announced he would resign from Attorney General to campaign for governor on February 1. From July 1 to December 31, 2004, Kilgore raised $2 million with $3.3 million to spend in the campaign. He launched his campaign with support for conservative economic and social policies.
On February 28, 2005, Warrenton mayor, George Fitch declared his candidacy for governor as the more conservative candidate — he promised to never raise taxes. Due to Republican support and fundraising advantages for Kilgore, Fitch was considered the underdog in the Republican primary.
On June 4, Kilgore easily defeated Fitch in the primary becoming the Republican nominee.
Candidates
Nominee
- Jerry Kilgore, former Attorney General of Virginia (2002-2005)
Eliminated in primary
- George Fitch, mayor of Warrenton (1998-2014)
Third Parties and Independents
Candidates
Independent Republican
- Russ Potts, state senator from Virginia's 27th district (Independent Republican)
General election
Candidates
- Tim Kaine, lieutenant governor of Virginia and former mayor of Richmond (Democratic)
- Jerry Kilgore, former attorney general of Virginia (Republican)
- Russ Potts, state senator from Winchester (Independent Republican)
The general election was expected to be close, with Independent candidate Russ Potts as a possible spoiler candidate. Kaine remained behind in polls throughout most of the campaign, at one point 10 points behind Kilgore, but captured a slight lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Kaine led in some polls for the first time in October 2005 and held his lead into the final week before the election.
Kaine closely associated himself with popular outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Warner during his campaign; he won his race by a slightly larger margin than Warner. He promised homeowner tax relief, centrist fiscal leadership, and strong support for education. A number of factors, from the sagging poll numbers of President George W. Bush to a public disgust over the death penalty ads run by Kilgore, have also been cited as key to his decisive win.
The election was the most expensive in Virginia history, with the candidates combined raising over $42 million.
Campaign
Kilgore resigned as attorney general in February 2005 to run for governor (as is the convention in Virginia) and easily won the primary election against Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch to become the Republican nominee. In the general election, he ran against Democratic nominee Tim Kaine, the lieutenant governor of Virginia, and State Senator Russ Potts, a pro-choice Republican who ran as an independent candidate. Early in the race, Kilgore showed solid leads of ten points or more in the polls, but Kaine steadily closed the gap and ultimately defeated Kilgore by a margin of 52% to 46%.
Kilgore's campaign was at times criticized for taking steps to avoid debates; Kilgore refused to debate Potts for the majority of the campaign, at times leaving Kaine and Potts to debate each other in his absence. He agreed to debate only with Kaine, and only if the footage could not be aired in campaign commercials. During this debate, he refused to answer whether or not he would make abortion a crime. This apparent public moderation of his previously open and hardline stance on abortion troubled some of his conservative supporters.
He was further criticized for failing to limit his negative advertisements to 50% of his campaign's total publicity as Kaine proposed. One such advertisement featured a father whose son had been murdered by a man who was on Virginia's death row; the father expressed doubt that the sentence would be carried out if Kaine were elected and alleged that Kaine would not even have authorized the execution of Adolf Hitler, based on an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch. The negative reaction to the mention of Hitler combined with Kaine's pledge to carry out the death penalty and explanation of his personal opposition as arising from his Catholic faith helped to neutralize what many observers thought would've been a potent issue for Kilgore. Kaine's campaign also ran an ad entitled "Wrong" quoting many Virginia newspapers in their condemnation of Kilgore and his campaign ads which stated (all caps emphasis) "All these newspapers can't be WRONG: 'Jerry Kilgore's ads are a VILE attempt to manipulate for political gain. . . they TWIST the truth. . . and SMEAR Tim Kaine. . . Kilgore's attacks are DISHONEST. . . FALSELY accuse Kaine. . . and TAR a decent man. . . Kilgore CROSSED the line. . . DRAGGING Kaine's beliefs through the mud. . . Jerry Kilgore should APOLOGIZE to Tim Kaine.'"
In trying to explain how a solid Republican could lose a traditionally Republican state by such a large margin, political commentators cited numerous key factors. Kaine's campaign had many political advantages, including his association with the state's popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner and defense of Warner's 2004 budget priorities, his "response ads" to Kilgore's death penalty advertisements where he spoke to voters about his religious convictions and as mentioned above, reminded them about how a large cross-section of Virginia media strongly condemned Kilgore for his negative death penalty ads, his relentless in-person campaigning across the state, and his opposition to tax increases. Experienced attorney Lawrence Roberts served as Kaine's campaign chairman. In contrast, Kilgore's campaign had many political disadvantages, including a backlash over the death penalty ads that Kilgore's campaign ran in the fall, the relatively low poll numbers of then-President George W. Bush at the time of the election, and a bitter division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party over tax and spending priorities.
Debates
- Complete video of first debate, September 13, 2005
- Complete video of second debate, October 9, 2005
Polling
Aggregate polls
Results
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- James City (no municipalities)
- Rappahannock (largest city: Washington)
- Virginia Beach (independent city)
- Chesapeake (independent city)
- Harrisonburg (independent city)
- Prince William (largest borough: Manassas)
- Staunton (independent city)
- Loudoun (largest borough: Leesburg)
- Fluvanna (largest borough: Lake Monticello)
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Appomattox (largest city: Appomattox)
- Amherst (largest city: Amherst)
- Bath (largest city: Hot Springs)
- Buckingham (largest city: Dillwyn)
- Charlotte (largest city: Keysville)
- Craig (largest city: New Castle)
- Cumberland (largest city: Farmville)
- Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
- Dinwiddie (largest town: McKenney)
- Essex (largest city: Tappahannock)
- Emporia (independent city)
- Franklin (largest city: Rocky Mount)
- Halifax (largest city: South Boston)
- Hopewell (independent city)
- Isle of Wight (largest city: Smithfield)
- Norton (independent city)
- Salem (independent city)
- Louisa (largest city: Louisa)
- Lunenburg (largest city: Victoria)
- Lee (largest city: Pennington Gap)
- Northumberland (largest city: Heathsville)
- Pulaski (largest city: Pulaski)
- Russell (largest municipality: Lebanon)
- Rockbridge (largest city: Lexington)
- Smyth (largest city: Marion)
- Tazewell (largest city: Richlands)
- Wise (largest city: Big Stone Gap)
Analysis
In the 2001 gubernatorial election, Mark Warner was accredited with strong performances in rural areas of the commonwealth which saw some reversions to Jerry Kilgore in this election. Kaine made heavy attempts to appeal to suburban and exurban counties in Northern Virginia where President Bush did strongly in 2004 through campaigning with Governor Warner and supporting zoning laws.