The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Oregon was won by Democratic Party nominee John Kerry by 4.16 points. Prior to the election, news organizations considered the state a tossup or leaning Kerry. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry was ahead in every poll after October 14, each with between 47% and 53% of the vote. Though the state had been very competitive and barely carried by Al Gore four years earlier, Oregon is considered a blue state as no Republican presidential candidate has won it since Ronald Reagan in 1984. While larger than Gore's, Kerry's margin of victory in Oregon was relatively modest. This is the most recent presidential election in which Oregon was considered a swing state.
As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the most recent election in which Clackamas County voted for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the most recent time the state's margin would be in the single digits, and the latest presidential election in which a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. Bush would win re-election nationwide in 2004, the first time in history that a Republican had been elected twice as president without ever carrying Oregon.
Primaries
- 2004 Oregon Democratic presidential primary
- 2004 Oregon Republican presidential primary
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
Polling
Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45% for Bush.
Fundraising
Bush raised $1,497,451. Kerry raised $1,937,916.
Advertising and visits
In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week. Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.
Analysis
After the 2000 election, which saw a particularly close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target. However, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The rural and highly conservative eastern interior and Southern Oregon favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.
Results
By congressional district
Kerry won three of five congressional districts. Bush won two, including one held by a Democrat.
Electors
Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All seven were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
- Michael J. Bohan
- Shirley A. Cairns
- James L. Edmunson
- Moshe D. Lenske
- Meredith Wood Smith
- Judy A. Sugnet
- Paul F. Zastrow